Wealth Management in Africa: The Cape Verde Opportunity

This work project consists of a comprehensive study of the possibility of opening a Wealth Management (WM) firm located in Cape Verde (CV), and was made at the request of NovoBanco’s Research Sectorial team. WM is a growing industry that consists in the set of financial services provided to wealthy clients. After taking into account the expected industry growth of the Sub-Saharan region, the preferences of the African wealthy, the current industry structure, and the advantages and disadvantages of locating a WM business in CV, it is concluded that a business opportunity exists. The reasons for thus, along with relevant recommendations, including which services a new business should offer and whom to target specifically, are presented in the final section.

An economic appraisal of the wealth-health gradient

In this study we aim to investigate the health discrepancies arising from unequal economic status, known as the “wealth-health gradient”. Our sample comprises 47,163 individuals from 14 European countries in the SHARE Wave 4 (2011), representing the population aged 50 and older. Through a cross-sectional OLS regression model, we have tested the impact of country-level indicators to infer their effect on personal health and on the magnitude of the gradient. The results find that private expenditure yields, on average, a higher, but fast decreasing, health benefit than public expenditure; and that income inequality is irrelevant for reducing health inequalities.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Relação entre despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações : análise da base de dados da OCDE 2012

RESUMO - Introdução: A despesa em saúde aumentou consideravelmente nas últimas décadas na maioria dos países industrializados. Por outro lado, os indicadores de saúde melhoraram. A evidência empírica sobre a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações tem sido inconclusiva. Este estudo aborda a relação entre as despesas em saúde e a saúde das populações através de dados agregados para 34 países para o período 1980-2010. Metodologia: Utilizou-se o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson para avaliar a correlação entre as variáveis explicativas e os indicadores de saúde. Procedeuse ainda à realização de uma regressão multivariada com dados em painel para cada indicador de saúde utilizado como variável dependente: esperança de vida à nascença e aos 65 anos para mulheres e homens, anos de vida potencialmente perdidos para mulheres e homens e mortalidade infantil. A principal variável explicativa utilizada foi a despesa em saúde, mas consideraram-se também vários fatores de confundimento, nomeadamente a riqueza, fatores estilo de vida, e oferta de cuidados. Resultados: A despesa per capita tem impacto nos indicadores de saúde mas ao adicionarmos a variável PIB per capita deixa de ser estatisticamente significativa. Outros fatores têm um impacto significativo para quase todos os indicadores de saúde utilizados: consumo de álcool e tabaco, gordura, o número de médicos e a imunização, confirmando vários resultados da literatura. Conclusão: Os resultados vão ao encontro de alguns estudos que afirmam o impacto marginal das despesas em saúde e do progresso da medicina nos resultados em saúde desde os anos 80 nos países industrializados.

Maritime Security in the Gulf of Guinea: Issues and Solutions for the 21st Century

A producer of 5.4 M bbl/d, totalling almost half of the consumption of the entire European Union, the Gulf of Guinea is a fundamental lifeline and maritime link between Europe, the Americas and Africa. Geographically positioned as a staging post for transit originating in Latin America and coupled with its relatively porous borders, the region is also the perfect stepping stone for contraband heading to European shores. While blessed with an enviable wealth of marine and mineral resources, the region is also plagued by an ever-increasing spectre of maritime piracy; accounting for around 30% of incidents in African waters from 2003 to 2011. It is for these reasons that this research centres around the issues of maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, with a particular focus on the first two decades of the 21st century. This research looks to examine the overall picture of the present state of play in the area, before going on to provide an analysis of potential regional developments in maritime security. This research begins with the analysis of concepts/phenomena that have played a notable role in the shaping of the field of maritime security, namely Globalisation and security issues in the post-Cold War era. The ensuing chapter then focuses in on the Gulf of Guinea and the issues dominating the field of maritime security in the region. The penultimate chapter presents a SWOT analysis, undertaken as part of this research with the aim of correlating opinions from a variety of sectors/professions regarding maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. The final chapter builds upon the results obtained from the abovementioned SWOT analysis, presenting a series of potential proposals/strategies that can contribute to the field of maritime security in the region over the coming years. This research draws to a close with the presentation of conclusions taken from this particular investigation, as well as a final overview of the earlier presented proposals applicable to the field of maritime security during the second decade of the 21st century.

Mota-Engil new prospects of growth: Overcoming the financial crisis

The 2008 global financial crisis caused the collapse of business key sectors, declines in consumer wealth and a fall in economic activity resulting in a global recession. In some European countries, the 2008 crisis contributed to a sovereign-debt crisis which had a strong impact in Southern European countries. The construction sector was particularly affected, with budget cuts disturbing public investment and no financing available for private constructors. This report intends to explain how Mota-Engil, faced this situation of low growth, and which strategies were adopted by the management to overcome the difficult economic conjecture, mainly in its domestic market: Portugal. The report is organized as a case-study. The first part, the case narrative, is subdivided into 6 parts, and the second part is the teaching note. The teaching note is constituted by the four questions and their respective responses.

Do the psychological impacts of war cause poverty?: Evidence from Mozambique

This paper evaluates the extent to which war-related psychological distress causes poverty. The endogeneous nature of mental distress is addressed by using exposure to the civil war in Mozambique as an instrument. It is found that exposure to war has a significant and positive long-lasting impact on mental distress. Furthermore, the causal impact of war-related psychological distress on income and wealth is shown to be significant, negative, and nonnegligible. One standard deviation increase in mental distress decreases income by half a standard deviation. These findings are robust to alternative specifications, including the use of an alternative database on the incidence of PTSD in Mozambique.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

O sigilo bancário e a fraude fiscal

Tax evasion and fraud threaten the economic and social objectives of modern tax systems, precluding the state funding for the satisfaction of collective needs and the fair distribution of wealth, being a violation of basic principles and values of our society. In tax law, to give tax administration the necessary powers to supervise and control the information provided by taxpayers and combat tax evasion and fraud, over the last years the grounds for a derogation of bank secrecy without judicial authorization have been extended, which raises some constitutional compatibility issues. Similarly, this tendency of making this legal regime more flexible and increasing automatic exchange of information has been followed by the European Union and the international community. Banking secrecy, as a professional secrecy, is an instrument to protect the right to privacy but also appears as an anti-abuse and repressive mechanism of evasive and fraudulent behaviors. Because of the conflict of interests will always be necessary to make a practical agreement between them, ensuring the legality and the due guarantees of the taxpayers but also an effective way to combat tax evasion and fraud. Bank secrecy cannot be one method to, behind the right to privacy, taxpayers practice illegal activities. But the practice of these irregular conducts also does not justify a total annihilation of the right to banking secrecy, uncovering all documents and bank information’s. Although considering the legislative changes, the administrative derogation of bank secrecy will always be what the tax administration does of it.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.