Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Corruption: Who pays for the bill?

This paper intends to study who pays for corruption in Brazil from 2005 to 2011. Politicians may decide to charge the spillovers of corruption at a municipal level through taxes or to charge it to the entire country through voluntary transfers. The used measure of corruption is based on audit reports conducted on randomly selected municipalities from 2005 to 2011.In order to address this question an IV strategy was computed using as instrument for the number of observed cases of corruption the dummy variable of being audited or not. We evaluated the impact of corruption on taxes and on voluntary transfers and concluded that with an increase in the number of observed cases of corruption the first decreases and the latest registers an increase. Therefore, considering all Brazilian municipalities, mayors prefer to spread the bill all over the country than charging it locally.

A participação da sociedade civil no processo de elaboração das leis federais brasileiras

The public consultation is a methodology for the interaction between the bodies responsible for drafting the law and the parties likely to be affected or to be interested in normative acts in question. This work seeks to encourage the use of public consultation in the process of elaboration of the Brazilian law. Therefore, some aspect of the knowledge area called Science of Legislation, with attention to the concept of “quality of the law” and to of the public consultation tool are addressed. We present the advantages of preparing public consultation mainly in the case of proposals that impose costs or benefits relevant to the economic agents involved in or promoting major change in the distribution of resources in society. Finally, it discusses the Brazilian legislative procedure and what the Brazilian law requires from legislative projects forwarded to the National Congress, as well as build a synthesis of the tools and the exiting possibilities of participation in the Brazilian context of elaboration of norms.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

Progressivity in the Portuguese personal income tax system

This Work Project analyzes the evolution of the Portuguese personal income tax system’s progressivity over the period of 2005 through 2013. It presents the first computation of cardinal progressivity measures using administrative tax data for Portugal. We compute several progressivity indices and find that progressivity has had very modest variations from 2005 to 2012, whilst from 2012 to 2013 there has been a relatively stronger decrease, excluding the impact of the income tax surcharge of the years 2012 and 2013. When this latter is included, progressivity of 2012 and 2013 decreases considerably. Analyzing the effective average tax rates of the top income percentiles in the income scale, we find that these rates have increased over the period 2010–2013, suggesting that an analysis of effective tax rates is insufficient to assess progressivity in the whole tax scheme.

The determinants of net interest margins & net interest spreads in the Russian & Japanese Commercial Banking sectors

This study presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of net interest margins and spreads in the Russian and Japanese banking sectors with a particular focus on commercial banks. Net interest mar-gins and spreads serve as indicators of financial intermediation efficiency. This paper employed a bank-level unbalanced panel dataset prolonging from 2005 to 2014. My main empirical results show that bank characteristics explain the most of the variation in not only net interest margins but also in spreads. Capi-talization, liquidity risk, inflation, economic growth, private and government debt are important determi-nants of margin in Russia. In Japan to the contrary loan and deposit market concentration along with bank size do predominate. Common significant variables in both countries are the substitution effect, cost effi-ciency and profitability. Turning to net interest spreads, micro- and macro-specific variables are the main significant drivers in Russia. I reach the conclusion that there are no significant determinants of net interest spreads in Japan within the original selection of variables, but operating efficiency and deposits to total funding seem to prevail. In both countries, there are solid differences in the net interest margins as well as spreads once the pre- and the post-crisis periods are considered.