Introduction: digital methods and tools for historical research

As an introduction to a series of articles focused on the exploration of particular tools and/or methods to bring together digital technology and historical research, the aim of this paper is mainly to highlight and discuss in what measure those methodological approaches can contribute to improve analytical and interpretative capabilities available to historians. In a moment when the digital world present us with an ever-increasing variety of tools to perform extraction, analysis and visualization of large amounts of text, we thought it would be relevant to bring the digital closer to the vast historical academic community. More than repeating an idea of digital revolution introduced in the historical research, something recurring in the literature since the 1980s, the aim was to show the validity and usefulness of using digital tools and methods, as another set of highly relevant tools that the historians should consider. For this several case studies were used, combining the exploration of specific themes of historical knowledge and the development or discussion of digital methodologies, in order to highlight some changes and challenges that, in our opinion, are already affecting the historians' work, such as a greater focus given to interdisciplinarity and collaborative work, and a need for the form of communication of historical knowledge to become more interactive.

The quest for growth in the German organic food retail market: Historical trends, current strategies, and future outlook

This paper aims to provide strategies for the organic supermarket chain “Alnatura” to shape the demand and its market share of the organic food & beverage (F&B) market in Germany within the next five years. Through the historic evolution and the current market assessment of Germany, compared to a benchmark country (US), as well as prospective trends in Germany, reasons and opportunities for market growth are evaluated. In addition, an industry attractiveness, competitor and company analysis is executed. Based on those findings and a conducted survey, suggestions to adjust Alnatura´s current business strategies are deduced and finally examined on its risk and feasibility.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

The determinants of net interest margins & net interest spreads in the Russian & Japanese Commercial Banking sectors

This study presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of net interest margins and spreads in the Russian and Japanese banking sectors with a particular focus on commercial banks. Net interest mar-gins and spreads serve as indicators of financial intermediation efficiency. This paper employed a bank-level unbalanced panel dataset prolonging from 2005 to 2014. My main empirical results show that bank characteristics explain the most of the variation in not only net interest margins but also in spreads. Capi-talization, liquidity risk, inflation, economic growth, private and government debt are important determi-nants of margin in Russia. In Japan to the contrary loan and deposit market concentration along with bank size do predominate. Common significant variables in both countries are the substitution effect, cost effi-ciency and profitability. Turning to net interest spreads, micro- and macro-specific variables are the main significant drivers in Russia. I reach the conclusion that there are no significant determinants of net interest spreads in Japan within the original selection of variables, but operating efficiency and deposits to total funding seem to prevail. In both countries, there are solid differences in the net interest margins as well as spreads once the pre- and the post-crisis periods are considered.

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.

Land of the rising soy an internationalization plan for nutre to the Japanese Soy milk market

The present work project studies the next step in the internationalization process of Shoyce, the soy milk products brand of Nutre. In order to select the best target market in the Asia-Pacific for Nutre to export, a sequential screening process was developed using two complementary approaches: preliminary country screening and country ranking, followed by an in-depth analysis of the country ranking first. The analysis revealed Japan as the most attractive country for Shoyce’s international expansion. Potential entry modes in the Japanese soy milk market were then evaluated, whereby direct exporting via a local distributor was found to be the most appropriate.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.