Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

A videovigilância no local de trabalho

The emergence of new technologies has introduced significant changes in the citizens life’s. There is a constant evolution of technological means and profound impact of their use in the habits of life of the human being. These new technological media are important tools in labor relations. The working and businesses worlds are increasingly turning to these new technologies, so that the use of video surveillance in the workplace is nowadays common. New technologies in general and the use of video surveillance in workplace in particular are providing ways to allow control of the work performance that are desired by most employers. However, the collection of images in the workplace often collides with the fundamental rights and freedoms of workers, in particular, with the right to privacy. The subject concerns the question of investigating is whether the images collected in workplace can be used as evidence in disciplinary proceedings. In fact, this issue is controversial. Doctrine and jurisprudence defend, at least, two responses for the same question. Those who understand that the evidence may be admitted for not violate any right of the worker, and others who argue that the evidence should not be admitted in disciplinary office. In the Portuguese legal system, there is, even, a new intermediate theory that begins to be defended, that only on certain occasions the evidence may be admitted. The solution to this problem involves the study of employment law and data video surveillance processing. Analysis of workers fundamental rights is fundamental to come to a grounded conclusion.

Young adult Brazilian beauty consumers perception of Lancôme and the effectiveness of social media relationhips with local celebrities on their purchase intention

The aim of this research is to evaluate if a premium beauty brand, in this case, Lancôme, can influence positively the purchase intention from Brazilian young adults, between 18 and 29 years old, consumers of beauty products, by initiating a relationship with a local celebrity or “it” girl on social media. This hypothesis has not been tested, and this research is a first attempt of evaluating it. Additionally, the consumer behavior, brand preferences and social media activeness of this age segment in Brazil are further studied as important insights for beauty brands to conquer these consumers. Results did not confirm the positive influence of local celebrities on this age segment’s purchase intention but several suggestions are made for future research to revisit this topic. Furthermore, there is a significant brand love for M.A.C., an international Lancôme competitor, amongst this target, as well as a probable price sensitivity facing premium beauty brands.

A new credit monitoring framework for agents' networks

The purpose of this work is to develop a practicable approach for Telecom firms to manage the credit risk exposition to their commercial agents’ network. Particularly it will try to approach the problem of credit concession to clients’ from a corporation perspective and explore the particular scenario of agents that are part of the commercial chain of the corporation and therefore are not end-users. The agents’ network that served as a model for the presented study is composed by companies that, at the same time, are both clients and suppliers of the Telecommunication Company. In that sense the credit exposition analysis must took into consideration all financial fluxes, both inbound and outbound. The current strain on the Financial Sector in Portugal, and other peripheral European economies, combined with the high leverage situation of most companies, generates an environment prone to credit default risk. Due to these circumstances managing credit risk exposure is becoming increasingly a critical function for every company Financial Department. The approach designed in the current study combined two traditional risk monitoring tools: credit risk scoring and credit limitation policies. The objective was to design a new credit monitoring framework that is more flexible, uses both external and internal relationship history to assess risk and takes into consideration commercial objectives inside the agents’ network. Although not explored at length, the blueprint of a Credit Governance model was created for implementing the new credit monitoring framework inside the telecom firm. The Telecom Company that served as a model for the present work decided to implement the new Credit Monitoring framework after this was presented to its Executive Commission.

The enchained potential of the local food market

There is a rising demand for local food which traveled only short distances and is marketed directly by the producer. With growing importance of local food also the amount of literature in this field increased. Yet, literature is lacking to examine the challenges and burdens consumers face while trying to purchase local food. Evidence is shown that a gap exists between the intention of consumers who would like to purchase local food and their actual behavior. However, reasons for this gap are only discovered as byproducts of other research objectives. Consequently, this study investigates the specific reasons for the intention-behavior gap of consumers in the local food market. The study makes use of semi-structured face-to-face interviews with rural and urban respondents. The interviews are analyzed by qualitative content analysis based on Elo and Kyngäs (2008). Revealed key drivers for the intention-behavior gap are (1) the lack of awareness where to purchase local food products, (2) the limited reachability of local food producers, (3) the assortment of the local producer in regard to size and composition and (4) the lack in transparency of the prices of local food. Consequently, it is the producers turn to eliminate the revealed barriers by proactively bringing their products closer to the consumer.