Creation of a web application for smart park system and parking prediction study for system integration

In the last few years, we have observed an exponential increasing of the information systems, and parking information is one more example of them. The needs of obtaining reliable and updated information of parking slots availability are very important in the goal of traffic reduction. Also parking slot prediction is a new topic that has already started to be applied. San Francisco in America and Santander in Spain are examples of such projects carried out to obtain this kind of information. The aim of this thesis is the study and evaluation of methodologies for parking slot prediction and the integration in a web application, where all kind of users will be able to know the current parking status and also future status according to parking model predictions. The source of the data is ancillary in this work but it needs to be understood anyway to understand the parking behaviour. Actually, there are many modelling techniques used for this purpose such as time series analysis, decision trees, neural networks and clustering. In this work, the author explains the best techniques at this work, analyzes the result and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each one. The model will learn the periodic and seasonal patterns of the parking status behaviour, and with this knowledge it can predict future status values given a date. The data used comes from the Smart Park Ontinyent and it is about parking occupancy status together with timestamps and it is stored in a database. After data acquisition, data analysis and pre-processing was needed for model implementations. The first test done was with the boosting ensemble classifier, employed over a set of decision trees, created with C5.0 algorithm from a set of training samples, to assign a prediction value to each object. In addition to the predictions, this work has got measurements error that indicates the reliability of the outcome predictions being correct. The second test was done using the function fitting seasonal exponential smoothing tbats model. Finally as the last test, it has been tried a model that is actually a combination of the previous two models, just to see the result of this combination. The results were quite good for all of them, having error averages of 6.2, 6.6 and 5.4 in vacancies predictions for the three models respectively. This means from a parking of 47 places a 10% average error in parking slot predictions. This result could be even better with longer data available. In order to make this kind of information visible and reachable from everyone having a device with internet connection, a web application was made for this purpose. Beside the data displaying, this application also offers different functions to improve the task of searching for parking. The new functions, apart from parking prediction, were: - Park distances from user location. It provides all the distances to user current location to the different parks in the city. - Geocoding. The service for matching a literal description or an address to a concrete location. - Geolocation. The service for positioning the user. - Parking list panel. This is not a service neither a function, is just a better visualization and better handling of the information.

Integration of a mobile autonomous robot in a surveillance multi-agent system

This dissertation aims to guarantee the integration of a mobile autonomous robot equipped with many sensors in a multi-agent distributed and georeferenced surveillance system. The integration of a mobile autonomous robot in this system leads to new features that will be available to clients of surveillance system may use. These features may be of two types: using the robot as an agent that will act in the environment or by using the robot as a mobile set of sensors. As an agent in the system, the robot can move to certain locations when alerts are received, in order to acknowledge the underlying events or take to action in order to assist in resolving this event. As a sensor platform in the system, it is possible to access information that is read from the sensors of the robot and access complementary measurements to the ones taken by other sensors in the multi-agent system. To integrate this mobile robot in an effective way it is necessary to extend the current multi-agent system architecture to make the connection between the two systems and to integrate the functionalities provided by the robot into the multi-agent system.

Methodological framework for detection of harmonisation breaking in service environments

As the complexity of markets and the dynamicity of systems evolve, the need for interoperable systems capable of strengthening enterprise communication effectiveness increases. This is particularly significant when it comes to collaborative enterprise networks, like manufacturing supply chains, where several companies work, communicate, and depend on each other, in order to achieve a specific goal. Once interoperability is achieved, that is once all network parties are able to communicate with and understand each other, organisations are able to exchange information along a stable environment that follows agreed laws. However, as markets adapt to new requirements and demands, an evolutionary behaviour is triggered giving space to interoperability problems, thus disrupting the sustainability of interoperability and raising the need to develop monitoring activities capable of detecting and preventing unexpected behaviour. This work seeks to contribute to the development of monitoring techniques for interoperable SOA-based enterprise networks. It focuses on the automatic detection of harmonisation breaking events during real-time communications, and strives to develop and propose a methodological approach to handle these disruptions with minimal or no human intervention, hence providing existing service-based networks with the ability to detect and promptly react to interoperability issues.

Barriers preventing the successful integration of mental health services into Primary Health Care in Nigeria : a mixed methods approach

RESUMO: A Nigéria tem uma população estimada em cerca de 170 milhões de pessoas. O número de profissionais de saúde mental é muito diminuto, contando apenas com 150 psiquiatras o que perfaz aproximadamente um rácio de psiquiatra: população de mais de 1:1 milhão de pessoas. O Plano Nacional de Saúde Mental de 1991 reconheceu esta insuficiência e recomendou a integração dos serviços de saúde mental nos cuidados de saúde primários (CSP). Depois de mais de duas décadas, essa política não foi ainda implementada. Este estudo teve como objetivos mapear a estrutura organizacional dos serviços de saúde mental da Nigéria, e explorar os desafios e barreiras que impedem a integração bem-sucedida dos serviços de saúde mental nos cuidados de saúde primários, isto segundo a perspectiva dos profissionais dos cuidados de saúde primários. Com este objetivo, desenvolveu-se um estudo exploratório sequencial e utilizou-se um modelo misto para a recolha de dados. A aplicação em simultâneo de abordagens qualitativas e quantitativas permitiram compreender os problemas relacionados com a integração dos serviços de saúde mental nos CSP na Nigéria. No estudo qualitativo inicial, foram realizadas entrevistas com listagens abertas a 30 profissionais dos CSP, seguidas de dois grupos focais com profissionais dos CSP de duas zonas governamentais do estado de Oyo de forma a obter uma visão global das perspectivas destes profissionais locais sobre os desafios e barreiras que impedem uma integração bem-sucedida dos serviços de saúde mental nos CSP. Subsequentemente, foram realizadas entrevistas com quatro pessoas-chave, especificamente coordenadores e especialistas em saúde mental. Os resultados do estudo qualitativo foram utilizados para desenvolver um questionário para análise quantitativa das opiniões de uma amostra maior e mais representativa dos profissionais dos CSP do Estado de Oyo, bem como de duas zonas governamentais locais do Estado de Osun. As barreiras mais comummente identificadas a partir deste estudo incluem o estigma e os preconceitos sobre a doença mental, a formação inadequada dos profissionais dos CPS sobre saúde mental, a perceção pela equipa dos CSP de baixa prioridade de ação do Governo, o medo da agressão e violência pela equipa dos CSP, bem como a falta de disponibilidade de fármacos. As recomendações para superar estes desafios incluem a melhoria sustentada dos esforços da advocacia à saúde mental que vise uma maior valorização e apoio governamental, a formação e treino organizados dos profissionais dos cuidados primários, a criação de redes de referência e de apoio com instituições terciárias adjacentes, e o engajamento da comunidade para melhorar o acesso aos serviços e à reabilitação, pelas pessoas com doença mental. Estes resultados fornecem indicações úteis sobre a perceção das barreiras para a integração bem sucedida dos serviços de saúde mental nos CSP, enquanto se recomenda uma abordagem holística e abrangente. Esta informação pode orientar as futuras tentativas de implementação da integração dos serviços de saúde mental nos cuidados primários na Nigéria.------------ABSTRACT: Nigeria has an estimated population of about 170 million people but the number of mental health professionals is very small, with about 150 psychiatrists. This roughly translates to a psychiatrist:population ratio of more than 1:1 million people. The National Mental Health Policy of 1991 recognized this deficiency and recommended the integration of mental health into primary health care (PHC) delivery system. After more than two decades, this policy has yet to be implemented. This study aimed to map out the organizational structure of the mental health systems in Nigeria, and to explore the challenges and barriers preventing the successful integration of mental health into primary health care, from the perspective of the primary health care workers. A mixed methods exploratory sequential study design was employed, which entails the use of sequential timing in the combined methods of data collection. A combination of qualitative and uantitative approaches in sequence, were utilized to understand the problems of mental health services integration into PHC in Nigeria. The initial qualitative phase utilized free listing interviews with 30 PHC workers, followed by two focus group discussions with primary care workers from two Local Government Areas (LGA) of Oyo State to gain useful insight into the local perspectives of PHC workers about the challenges and barriers preventing successful integration of mental health care services into PHC. Subsequently, 4 key informant interviews with PHC co-ordinators and mental health experts were carried out. The findings from the qualitative study were utilized to develop a quantitative study questionnaire to understand the opinions of a larger and more representative sample of PHC staff in two more LGAs of Oyo State, as well as 2 LGAs from Osun State. The common barriers identified from this study include stigma and misconceptions about mental illness, inadequate training of PHC staff about mental health, low government priority, fear of aggression and violence by the PHC staff, as well as non-availability of medications. Recommendations for overcoming these challenges include improved and sustained efforts at mental health advocacy to gain governmental attention and support, organized training and retraining for primary care staff, establishment of referral and supportive networks with neighbouring tertiary facilities and community engagement to improve service utilization and rehabilitation of mentally ill persons. These findings provide useful insight into the barriers to the successful integration of mental health into PHC, while recommending a holistic and comprehensive approach. This information can guide future attempts to implement the integration of mental health into primary care in Nigeria.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Knowledge management framework based on brain models and human physiology

The life of humans and most living beings depend on sensation and perception for the best assessment of the surrounding world. Sensorial organs acquire a variety of stimuli that are interpreted and integrated in our brain for immediate use or stored in memory for later recall. Among the reasoning aspects, a person has to decide what to do with available information. Emotions are classifiers of collected information, assigning a personal meaning to objects, events and individuals, making part of our own identity. Emotions play a decisive role in cognitive processes as reasoning, decision and memory by assigning relevance to collected information. The access to pervasive computing devices, empowered by the ability to sense and perceive the world, provides new forms of acquiring and integrating information. But prior to data assessment on its usefulness, systems must capture and ensure that data is properly managed for diverse possible goals. Portable and wearable devices are now able to gather and store information, from the environment and from our body, using cloud based services and Internet connections. Systems limitations in handling sensorial data, compared with our sensorial capabilities constitute an identified problem. Another problem is the lack of interoperability between humans and devices, as they do not properly understand human’s emotional states and human needs. Addressing those problems is a motivation for the present research work. The mission hereby assumed is to include sensorial and physiological data into a Framework that will be able to manage collected data towards human cognitive functions, supported by a new data model. By learning from selected human functional and behavioural models and reasoning over collected data, the Framework aims at providing evaluation on a person’s emotional state, for empowering human centric applications, along with the capability of storing episodic information on a person’s life with physiologic indicators on emotional states to be used by new generation applications.

Integration of speech-processing technologies into Activobank's client interaction process

This dissertation analyzes the possibilities of utilizing speech-processing technologies to transform the user experience of ActivoBank’s customers while using remote banking solutions. The technologies are examined through different criteria to determine if they support the bank’s goals and strategy and whether they should be incorporated in the bank’s offering. These criteria include the alignment with ActivoBank’s values, the suitability of the technology providers, the benefits these technologies entail, potential risks, appeal to the customers and impact on customer satisfaction. The analysis suggests that ActivoBank might not be in a position to adopt these technologies at this point in time.

The integration of online advertising into social media

This study examined user-generated (UG) advertising in the context of social media networks. The focus was on how people, whether an expert in the area, a non-expert or a friend, influence the reader of the advertisement. Furthermore, the study analyzed how the certainty level of the UG advertisement influences the person viewing the ad. The study showed that for the friend source a high certainty message was more persuasive. However, regarding the certainty no significant results were found for the expert and non-expert. Further, the type of the source had a considerable impact on persuasion. Someone that we personally know (e.g., a friend) was rated most positive for all analyzes variables. This shows that with the rising usage of social media there are great opportunities for new effective advertising strategies that could include a new type of an endorser – friends.

O Ne bis in idem no Espaço de Liberdade, Segurança e Justiça e no Direito Europeu da Concorrência

Ne bis in idem, understood as a procedural guarantee in the EU assumes different features in the AFSJ and in european competition law. Despite having a common origin (being, in both sectors the result of the case law of the same jurisdictional organ) its components are quite distintic in each area of the integration. In the AFSJ, the content of bis and idem are broader and addressed at a larger protection of individuals. Its axiological ground is based on the freedom of movements and human dignity, whereas in european competition law its closely linked to defence rights of legal persons and the concept of criminal punishment of anticompetitive sanctions as interpreted by the ECHR´s jurisprudence. In european competition law, ne bis in idem is limited by the systemic framework of competition law and the need to ensure parallel application of both european and national laws. Nonetheless, the absence of a compulsory mechanism to allocate jurisdiction in the EU (both in the AFSJ and in the field of anti-trust law) demands a common axiological framework. In this context, ne bis in idem must be understood as a defence right based on equity and proportionality. As far as its international dimension is concerned, ne bis in idem also lacks an erga omnes effect and it is not considered to be a rule of ius cogens. Consequently, the model which the ECJ has built regarding the application of the ne bis in idem in transnational and supranational contexts should be replicated by other courts through cross fertilization, in order to internationalize that procedural guarantee and broaden its scope of application.

Electro-Optical/Infrared sensor turret integration on an aircraft - structural im-pact on LOCKHEED MARTIN C-130H and design methodology

The growing need to patrol and survey large maritime and terrestrial areas increased the need to integrate external sensors on aircraft in order to accomplish those patrols at increasingly higher altitudes, longer range and not depending upon vehicle type. The main focus of this work is to elaborate a practical, simple, effective and efficient methodology for the aircraft modification procedure resulting from the integration of an Elec-tro-Optical/Infra-Red (EO/IR) turret through a support structure. The importance of the devel-opment of a good methodology relies on the correct management of project variables as time, available resources and project complexity. The key is to deliver a proper tool for a project de-sign team that will be used to create a solution that fulfils all technical, non-technical and certi-fication requirements present in this field of transportation. The created methodology is inde-pendent of two main inputs: sensor model and aircraft model definition, and therefore it is in-tended to deliver the results for different projects besides the one that was presented in this work as a case study. This particular case study presents the development of a structure support for FLIR STAR SAPHIRE III turret integration on the front lower fuselage bulkhead (radome) of the LOCKHEED MARTIN C-130 H. Development of the case study focuses on the study of local structural analysis through the use of Finite Element Method (FEM). Development of this Dissertation resulted in a cooperation between Faculty of Science and Technology - Universidade Nova de Lisboa and the company OGMA - Indústria Aeronáutica de Portugal

Development and validation of gold nanoprobes for human SNP detection towards commercial application

Conventional molecular techniques for detection and characterization of relevant nucleic acid (i.e. DNA) sequences are, nowadays, cumbersome, expensive and with reduced portability. The main objective of this dissertation consisted in the optimization and validation of a fast and low-cost colorimetric nanodiagnostic methodology for the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This was done considering SNPs associated to obesity of commercial interest for STAB VIDA, and subsequent evaluation of other clinically relevant targets. Also, integration of this methodology into a microfluidic platform envisaging portability and application on points-of-care (POC) was achieved. To warrant success in pursuing these objectives, the experimental work was divided in four sections: i) genetic association of SNPs to obesity in the Portuguese population; ii) optimization and validation of the non-cross-linking approach for complete genotype characterization of these SNPs; iii) incorporation into a microfluidic platform; and iv) translation to other relevant commercial targets. FTO dbSNP rs#:9939609 carriers had higher body mass index (BMI), total body fat mass, waist perimeter and 2.5 times higher risk to obesity. AuNPs functionalized with thiolated oligonucleotides (Au-nanoprobes) were used via the non-cross-linking to validate a diagnostics approach against the gold standard technique - Sanger Sequencing - with high levels of sensitivity (87.50%) and specificity (91.67%). A proof-of-concept POC microfluidic device was assembled towards incorporation of the molecular detection strategy. In conclusion a successful framework was developed and validated for the detection of SNPs with commercial interest for STAB VIDA, towards future translation into a POC device.

‘Fala connosco!’ : o jornalismo infantil e a participação das crianças, em Portugal e no Brasil

Esta tese se concentra na participação das crianças no jornalismo feito para elas. Buckingham (2009) entende que as crianças devem exercer os seus direitos de participação, estabelecidos na Convenção sobre os Direitos da Criança (1989), também na área da produção midiática. Isto significa que as crianças devem dizer, para os produtores e legisladores de mídia, os seus desejos e sugestões, críticas e concordâncias, além de produzir conteúdos próprios. Para o investigador britânico, isso está relacionado ao que ele chama de “direito das crianças à representação”, garantia que não está abarcada pela Convenção. O objetivo desse novo direito seria o de que as crianças não só sejam ouvidas mas também criem e defendam melhores formas de representação das infâncias contemporâneas, através da participação nos canais de mídia. Além disso, as representações das crianças apresentadas no discurso jornalístico são parte do quadro social e cultural que forma o que entendemos por infância contemporânea (e que a distingue do que é “ser adulto”). A imprensa voltada especificamente para as crianças pode entender melhor o cotidiano dos meninos e meninas e, através de representações da(s) infância(s) mais complexas, pode lembrar à sociedade que as crianças também estão envolvidas em questões gerais, como a organização cultural e socioeconômica de suas cidades, de seus países ou do mundo — expandindo o conceito de infância aceito atualmente. Os canais de participação oferecidos pelos meios de comunicação e as novas formas de comunicação que as crianças têm à sua disposição, através da internet, são possíveis formas de assegurar o direito defendido por Buckingham. Mas as crianças têm vindo a utilizar as novas formas digitais de participação para se comunicar com os jornalistas que escrevem para elas? Existe um interesse voluntário das crianças neste tipo de participação? São comentários enviados diretamente por elas ou por seus responsáveis, preocupados com os conteúdos dos veículos que oferecem aos seus filhos, netos e alunos? Para responder a essas questões, analisamos 515 cartas e e-mails enviados para duas revistas feitas para crianças, no Brasil (“Ciência Hoje das Crianças”) e em Portugal (“Visão Júnior”), em 2013-14. Entrevistamos ainda crianças de nove a 16 anos de idade em ambos os países. Analisando a amostra de mensagens, vimos que os leitores (a maioria crianças, e não adultos responsáveis por elas) escrevem intensamente para ambas as revistas e que eles estão usando mais o e-mail para esta atividade — embora no Brasil não tenham abandonado completamente o papel quando a comunicação é gerada na escola. Nesse país, o uso da internet por crianças nas escolas é menor do que em Portugal. Como conclusões, entendemos que a integração digital não tende a aumentar a comunicação on-line com essas revistas de papel, porém ela expande as fontes de informação acessadas pelas crianças — ainda que elas nem sempre consigam diferenciar entretenimento de informação jornalística. Esses meninos e meninas, voluntariamente ou incentivados pelos professores (aparentemente não por pais ou colegas), veem o espaço para publicação de cartas do leitor nas revistas como uma plataforma por meio da qual podem intervir na oferta editorial. Mas isso acontece de forma “reforçadora”, ou seja, pedindo mais do que eles já veem e apreciam. Acreditamos ser necessário investimento em literacia midiária, através da mediação dos pais e da escola, para estimular as crianças a pedirem um jornalismo melhor, de uma forma que elas ainda nem sabem ser possível. //

Depois de Orpheu : 1916-1935

O objetivo deste trabalho era verificar como, nos jornais e revistas, o Primeiro Modernismo tinha sido acolhido. Depois do escândalo de Orpheu e da forma agressiva como os seus colaboradores tinham sido recebidos, cabia verificar se tinha havido, ou não, uma evolução na análise da sua obra ao longo dos anos, de 1916 a 1935, tanto mais que as vidas de cada um destes tinha evoluído de forma diferenciada. As mortes prematuras de uns, a subida a postos de influência e poder, ou a longevidade de outros foram fatores que poderiam ter condicionado a evolução da crítica jornalística. Por um lado, os críticos poderiam ter alterado a sua visão face a estes criadores, podendo o tempo ter funcionado a favor destes. O que em 1915 era estranho e bizarro poderia em 1935 ser inédito e original. Por outro lado, a conjuntura política poderia condicionar não só a criação artística, mas também o seu enquadramento social. Em 1915, a guerra entre monárquicos e republicanos foi marcada pelas referências a Orpheu. Mais tarde com a ditadura militar e a ascensão do Estado Novo poderão os nossos artistas voltar a ser alvo de referências políticas. A verdade é que tal não acontece. O poder político menospreza-os, apesar de nalguns casos terem uma participação ativa nas suas fileiras. A verdade é que os autores mais importantes e significativos foram, pouco a pouco, e com o passar dos anos, integrados na sociedade literária e começaram a ser vistos como criadores a ter em conta, senão mesmo de referência. O seu aparecimento em jornais e revistas na qualidade de escritores, jornalistas, artistas plásticos ou mesmo críticos fez com que estivessem sob os holofotes da imprensa e como tal sujeitos a uma análise permanente. E esta foi-se alterando com o passar do tempo e com o reconhecimento dos mesmos. Hoje ninguém duvida do seu valor, mas entre 1915 (data da publicação de Orpheu e 1935 (ano da morte de Pessoa) todos eram vistos como loucos, jovens com alguma habilidade para a escrita, promessas do panorama literário e finalmente, em alguns casos, motivos de orgulho para o nosso património artístico. Só uma leitura dos periódicos mais relevantes permitiria estudar a receção do nosso Primeiro Modernismo. E foi esse o objetivo desta tese.

Semantic adaptability for the systems interoperability

In the current global and competitive business context, it is essential that enterprises adapt their knowledge resources in order to smoothly interact and collaborate with others. However, due to the existent multiculturalism of people and enterprises, there are different representation views of business processes or products, even inside a same domain. Consequently, one of the main problems found in the interoperability between enterprise systems and applications is related to semantics. The integration and sharing of enterprises knowledge to build a common lexicon, plays an important role to the semantic adaptability of the information systems. The author proposes a framework to support the development of systems to manage dynamic semantic adaptability resolution. It allows different organisations to participate in a common knowledge base building, letting at the same time maintain their own views of the domain, without compromising the integration between them. Thus, systems are able to be aware of new knowledge, and have the capacity to learn from it and to manage its semantic interoperability in a dynamic and adaptable way. The author endorses the vision that in the near future, the semantic adaptability skills of the enterprise systems will be the booster to enterprises collaboration and the appearance of new business opportunities.

Continuidade e mudança. O sistema internacional no post‐Guerra Fria

O fim da Guerra Fria é um caso inédito de mudança pacífica da estrutura internacional, em que os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética transcendem a divisão bipolar para decidir os termos da paz no quadro das instituições que definem o modelo de ordenamento multilateral, consolidando a sua legitimidade. Nesse contexto, ao contrário dos casos precedentes de reconstrução internacional no fim de uma guerra hegemónica, o novo sistema do post-Guerra Fria, caracterizado pela unipolaridade, pela regionalização e pela homogeneização, forma-se num quadro de continuidade institucional. A ordem política do post-Guerra Fria é um sistema misto em que as tensões entre a hierarquia unipolar e a anarquia multipolar, a integração global e a fragmentação regional e a homogeneidade e a heterogeneidade política, ideológica e cultural condicionam as estratégias das potências. As crises internacionais vão pôr à prova a estabilidade da nova ordem e a sua capacidade para garantir mudanças pacíficas. A primeira década do post-Guerra Fria mostra a preponderância dos Estados Unidos e a sua confiança crescente, patente nas Guerras do Golfo Pérsico e dos Balcãs, bem como na crise dos Estreitos da Formosa. A reacção aos atentados do "11 de Setembro" revela uma tentação imperial da potência unipolar, nomeadamente com a invasão do Iraque, que provoca uma crise profunda da comunidade de segurança ocidental. A vulnerabilidade do centro da ordem internacional é confirmada pela crise constitucional europeia e pela crise financeira global. Essas crises não alteram a estrutura de poder mas aceleram a erosão da ordem multilateral e criam um novo quadro de possibilidades para a evolução internacional, que inclui uma escalada dos conflitos num quadro de multipolaridade regional, uma nova polarização entre as potências democráticas conservadoras e uma coligação revisionista autoritária, bem como a restauração de um concerto entre as principais potências internacionais.