126 resultados para Business forecasting.


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Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

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NSBE - UNL

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Programmes supporting micro and small enterprises in developing countries have been showing that capital is not enough to allow business success: survival and growth. Literature does not provide comprehensive and practical tool to support business development in this context, but allowed the collection of forty-nine success variables that were studied in a sample of successful and unsuccessful businesses in the Island of Mozambique to discover what were the key factors affecting those businesses’ performance. Empirical data gave the insights for the development of a model to screen and improve business potential of micro and small enterprises in this context.

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This project aims to delineate recovery strategies for a Portuguese Bank, as a way to increase its preparedness towards unexpected disruptive events, thus avoiding an operational crisis escalation. For this purpose, Business Continuity material was studied, a risk assessment performed, a business impact analysis executed and new strategic framework for selecting strategies adopted. In the end, a set of recovery strategies were chosen that better represented the Bank’s appetite for risk, and recommendations given for future improvements.

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This study considers the literature on the persistence of business groups in developed economies and analyzes the Portuguese case. The reconstruction of the largest business groups assembles information relevant to define characteristics that enable them to thrive. Increasing internationalization, more specialization in core activities and family control define these types of big businesses. New sectors also emerge as a characteristic of these business groups when compared to the ones existing 40 years ago.

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Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht

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The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

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Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Master’s Double Degree in Finance and Financial Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University

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The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

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UNL - NSBE

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The following work project illustrates the strategic issues There App, a mobile application, faces regarding the opportunity to expand from its current state as a product to a multisided platform. Initially, a market analysis is performed to identify the ideal customer groups to be integrated in the platform. Strategic design issues are then discussed on how to best match its value proposition with the identified market opportunity. Suggestions on how the company should organize its resources and operational processes to best deliver on its value proposition complete the work.

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This research paper investigates how the market conditions at the base of the pyramid (BOP) influences South African small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) to take certain business decisions in the townships and rural areas. It takes a qualitative approach to explore how SMEs with social objectives develops mitigating strategies to successfully engage with and in poor communities. The research suggests that prevailing BOP strategies are lacking certain aspects to successfully realize them on the ground. It advices firms to take a more practical hands-on approach to identify a sustainable business model by testing, experimenting, learning and adjusting, eventually being eligible for up-scaling.