Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

O princípio da confidencialidade na mediação em matéria civil e comercial

The purpose of the following study is to analyze the relevance of the principle of confidentiality concerning mediation on civil and commercial matters developed in Portugal. We will, essentially, try to determine just how pivotal is this principle and how it affects the effectiveness of that method of alternative dispute resolution. We believe it is fundamental to understand the true extent of this principle and its goals, emphasizing the protection given to those who decide to resort to mediation and its impact on this process. For this dissertation, we have based our analysis on the interpretation of the set rules assembled by Law nr 29/2013, April 19th, while combining it with data gathered from other laws and regulations that had also addressed mediation. Furthermore, given the fact that this subject has been regulated by Directive 2008/52/EC, we deem pertinent to include references to other European mediation regulations, namely from Germany, Spain and France. With this study, we have established that, even though the Portuguese mediation law is based on a European Directive, we have determined a more restrictive regulation for the principle of confidentiality. We have concluded that the rules regarding this principle try to preserve, above all, the trust and honesty established during the course of the mediation, while restricting the possibility of using the information disclosed during these sessions on other cases. Additionally, we believe confidentiality is such a distinctive and relevant feature that its legal framework leads us to deem it as a true obstacle to the parties’ private autonomy and their power to determine how the mediation should be carried out.

‘Fala connosco!’ : o jornalismo infantil e a participação das crianças, em Portugal e no Brasil

Esta tese se concentra na participação das crianças no jornalismo feito para elas. Buckingham (2009) entende que as crianças devem exercer os seus direitos de participação, estabelecidos na Convenção sobre os Direitos da Criança (1989), também na área da produção midiática. Isto significa que as crianças devem dizer, para os produtores e legisladores de mídia, os seus desejos e sugestões, críticas e concordâncias, além de produzir conteúdos próprios. Para o investigador britânico, isso está relacionado ao que ele chama de “direito das crianças à representação”, garantia que não está abarcada pela Convenção. O objetivo desse novo direito seria o de que as crianças não só sejam ouvidas mas também criem e defendam melhores formas de representação das infâncias contemporâneas, através da participação nos canais de mídia. Além disso, as representações das crianças apresentadas no discurso jornalístico são parte do quadro social e cultural que forma o que entendemos por infância contemporânea (e que a distingue do que é “ser adulto”). A imprensa voltada especificamente para as crianças pode entender melhor o cotidiano dos meninos e meninas e, através de representações da(s) infância(s) mais complexas, pode lembrar à sociedade que as crianças também estão envolvidas em questões gerais, como a organização cultural e socioeconômica de suas cidades, de seus países ou do mundo — expandindo o conceito de infância aceito atualmente. Os canais de participação oferecidos pelos meios de comunicação e as novas formas de comunicação que as crianças têm à sua disposição, através da internet, são possíveis formas de assegurar o direito defendido por Buckingham. Mas as crianças têm vindo a utilizar as novas formas digitais de participação para se comunicar com os jornalistas que escrevem para elas? Existe um interesse voluntário das crianças neste tipo de participação? São comentários enviados diretamente por elas ou por seus responsáveis, preocupados com os conteúdos dos veículos que oferecem aos seus filhos, netos e alunos? Para responder a essas questões, analisamos 515 cartas e e-mails enviados para duas revistas feitas para crianças, no Brasil (“Ciência Hoje das Crianças”) e em Portugal (“Visão Júnior”), em 2013-14. Entrevistamos ainda crianças de nove a 16 anos de idade em ambos os países. Analisando a amostra de mensagens, vimos que os leitores (a maioria crianças, e não adultos responsáveis por elas) escrevem intensamente para ambas as revistas e que eles estão usando mais o e-mail para esta atividade — embora no Brasil não tenham abandonado completamente o papel quando a comunicação é gerada na escola. Nesse país, o uso da internet por crianças nas escolas é menor do que em Portugal. Como conclusões, entendemos que a integração digital não tende a aumentar a comunicação on-line com essas revistas de papel, porém ela expande as fontes de informação acessadas pelas crianças — ainda que elas nem sempre consigam diferenciar entretenimento de informação jornalística. Esses meninos e meninas, voluntariamente ou incentivados pelos professores (aparentemente não por pais ou colegas), veem o espaço para publicação de cartas do leitor nas revistas como uma plataforma por meio da qual podem intervir na oferta editorial. Mas isso acontece de forma “reforçadora”, ou seja, pedindo mais do que eles já veem e apreciam. Acreditamos ser necessário investimento em literacia midiária, através da mediação dos pais e da escola, para estimular as crianças a pedirem um jornalismo melhor, de uma forma que elas ainda nem sabem ser possível. //

A type system for value-dependent information flow analysis

Information systems are widespread and used by anyone with computing devices as well as corporations and governments. It is often the case that security leaks are introduced during the development of an application. Reasons for these security bugs are multiple but among them one can easily identify that it is very hard to define and enforce relevant security policies in modern software. This is because modern applications often rely on container sharing and multi-tenancy where, for instance, data can be stored in the same physical space but is logically mapped into different security compartments or data structures. In turn, these security compartments, to which data is classified into in security policies, can also be dynamic and depend on runtime data. In this thesis we introduce and develop the novel notion of dependent information flow types, and focus on the problem of ensuring data confidentiality in data-centric software. Dependent information flow types fit within the standard framework of dependent type theory, but, unlike usual dependent types, crucially allow the security level of a type, rather than just the structural data type itself, to depend on runtime values. Our dependent function and dependent sum information flow types provide a direct, natural and elegant way to express and enforce fine grained security policies on programs. Namely programs that manipulate structured data types in which the security level of a structure field may depend on values dynamically stored in other fields The main contribution of this work is an efficient analysis that allows programmers to verify, during the development phase, whether programs have information leaks, that is, it verifies whether programs protect the confidentiality of the information they manipulate. As such, we also implemented a prototype typechecker that can be found at http://ctp.di.fct.unl.pt/DIFTprototype/.

The role of information systems in business process redesign : a case of Turkish electricity market

This study is specifically concerned with the effect of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) on the Business Process Redesign (BPR). Researcher’s experience and the investigation on previous researches imply that BPR and ERP are deeply related to each other and a study to found the mentioned relation further is necessary. In order to elaborate the hypothesis, a case study, in particular Turkish electricity distribution market and the phase of privatization are investigated. Eight companies that have taken part in privatization process and executed BPR serve as cases in this study. During the research, the cases are evaluated through critical success factors on both BPR and ERP. It was seen that combining the ERP Solution features with business processes lead the companies to be successful in ERP and BPR implementation. When the companies’ success and efficiency were compared before and after the ERP implementation, a considerable change was observed in organizational structure. It was spotted that the team composition is important in the success of ERP projects. Additionally, when the ERP is in driver or enabler role, the companies can be considered successful. On the contrary, when the ERP has a neutral role of business processes, the project fails. In conclusion, it can be said that the companies, which have implemented the ERP successfully, have accomplished the goals of the BPR.

How to improve urban mobility in Lisbon: intermodality and information and ticketing systems

Urban mobility is one of the main challenges facing urban areas due to the growing population and to traffic congestion, resulting in environmental pressures. The pathway to urban sustainable mobility involves strengthening of intermodal mobility. The integrated use of different transport modes is getting more and more important and intermodality has been mentioned as a way for public transport compete with private cars. The aim of the current dissertation is to define a set of strategies to improve urban mobility in Lisbon and by consequence reduce the environmental impacts of transports. In order to do that several intermodal practices over Europe were analysed and the transport systems of Brussels and Lisbon were studied and compared, giving special attention to intermodal systems. In the case study was gathered data from both cities in the field, by using and observing the different transport modes, and two surveys were done to the cities users. As concluded by the study, Brussels and Lisbon present significant differences. In Brussels the measures to promote intermodality are evident, while in Lisbon a lot still needs to be done. It also made clear the necessity for improvements in Lisbon’s public transports to a more intermodal passenger transport system, through integration of different transport modes and better information and ticketing system. Some of the points requiring developments are: interchanges’ waiting areas; integration of bicycle in public transport; information about correspondences with other transport modes; real-time information to passengers pre-trip and on-trip, especially in buses and trams. After the identification of the best practices in Brussels and the weaknesses in Lisbon the possibility of applying some of the practices in Brussels to Lisbon was evaluated. Brussels demonstrated to be a good example of intermodality and for that reason some of the recommendations to improve intermodal mobility in Lisbon can follow the practices in place in Brussels.