Agent-based parking occupancy simulation

The existing parking simulations, as most simulations, are intended to gain insights of a system or to make predictions. The knowledge they have provided has built up over the years, and several research works have devised detailed parking system models. This thesis work describes the use of an agent-based parking simulation in the context of a bigger parking system development. It focuses more on flexibility than on fidelity, showing the case where it is relevant for a parking simulation to consume dynamically changing GIS data from external, online sources and how to address this case. The simulation generates the parking occupancy information that sensing technologies should eventually produce and supplies it to the bigger parking system. It is built as a Java application based on the MASON toolkit and consumes GIS data from an ArcGis Server. The application context of the implemented parking simulation is a university campus with free, on-street parking places.

Transactions in dynamic reactive environments

Most of today’s systems, especially when related to the Web or to multi-agent systems, are not standalone or independent, but are part of a greater ecosystem, where they need to interact with other entities, react to complex changes in the environment, and act both over its own knowledge base and on the external environment itself. Moreover, these systems are clearly not static, but are constantly evolving due to the execution of self updates or external actions. Whenever actions and updates are possible, the need to ensure properties regarding the outcome of performing such actions emerges. Originally purposed in the context of databases, transactions solve this problem by guaranteeing atomicity, consistency, isolation and durability of a special set of actions. However, current transaction solutions fail to guarantee such properties in dynamic environments, since they cannot combine transaction execution with reactive features, or with the execution of actions over domains that the system does not completely control (thus making rolling back a non-viable proposition). In this thesis, we investigate what and how transaction properties can be ensured over these dynamic environments. To achieve this goal, we provide logic-based solutions, based on Transaction Logic, to precisely model and execute transactions in such environments, and where knowledge bases can be defined by arbitrary logic theories.

Métodos de avaliação do impacto económico dos eventos adversos em meio hospitalar

RESUMO - O sistema de saúde é constantemente sujeito a pressões sendo as mais relevantes a pressão para o aumento da qualidade e a necessidade de contenção de custos. Os Eventos Adversos (EAs) ocorridos em meio hospitalar constituem um sério problema de qualidade na prestação de cuidados de saúde, com consequências clinicas, sociais, económicas e de imagem, que afectam pacientes, profissionais, organizações e o próprio sistema de saúde. Os custos associados à ocorrência de EAs em meio hospitalar, incrementam significativamente os custos hospitalares, representando cerca de um em cada sete dólares gastos no atendimento dos doentes. Só na última década surgiram estudos com o objectivo principal de avaliar esse impacto em meio hospitalar, subsistindo ainda uma grande indefinição quanto às variáveis e métodos a utilizar. O objectivo principal deste trabalho de projecto foi conhecer e caracterizar as diferentes metodologias utilizadas para avaliação dos custos económicos, nomeadamente dos custos directos, relacionados com a ocorrência de eventos adversos em meio hospitalar. Tendo em atenção as dificuldades referidas, utilizou-se como metodologia a revisão narrativa da literatura, complementada com a realização de uma técnica de grupo nominal. Os resultados obtidos foram os seguintes: i) a metodologia utilizada na maioria dos estudos para determinar a frequência, natureza e consequências dos EAs ocorridos em meio hospitalar, utiliza matrizes de base observacional, analítica, com base em estudos de coorte retrospectivo recorrendo aos critérios definidos pelo Harvard Medical Practice Study; ii) a generalidade dos estudos realizados avaliam os custos directos dos EAs em meio hospitalar, iii) verificou-se a existência de uma grande diversidade de métodos para a determinação dos custos associados aos EAs. A generalidade dos estudos determina esse valor com base na contabilização do número de dias adicionais de internamento, resultantes do EA, valorizados com base em custos médios; iv) o grupo de peritos, propôs como metodologia para a determinação do custo associado a cada EA, a utilização de sistemas de custeio por doente; v) propõe-se o desenvolvimento de uma plataforma informática, que permita o cruzamento da informação disponível no registo clinico electrónico do doente com um sistema automático de identificação de EAs, a desenvolver, e com sistemas de custeio por doente, de modo a valorizar os custos por doente e por tipo de EA. A avaliação dos custos directos associados à ocorrência de EAs em contexto hospitalar, pelo impacto económico e social que tem nos doentes e organizações, será seguramente uma das áreas de estudo e investigação futuras, no sentido de melhorar a eficiência do sistema de saúde e a qualidade e segurança dos cuidados prestados aos doentes.

Integration of a mobile autonomous robot in a surveillance multi-agent system

This dissertation aims to guarantee the integration of a mobile autonomous robot equipped with many sensors in a multi-agent distributed and georeferenced surveillance system. The integration of a mobile autonomous robot in this system leads to new features that will be available to clients of surveillance system may use. These features may be of two types: using the robot as an agent that will act in the environment or by using the robot as a mobile set of sensors. As an agent in the system, the robot can move to certain locations when alerts are received, in order to acknowledge the underlying events or take to action in order to assist in resolving this event. As a sensor platform in the system, it is possible to access information that is read from the sensors of the robot and access complementary measurements to the ones taken by other sensors in the multi-agent system. To integrate this mobile robot in an effective way it is necessary to extend the current multi-agent system architecture to make the connection between the two systems and to integrate the functionalities provided by the robot into the multi-agent system.

Fatores de risco auto reportados associados aos acidentes rodoviários : um estudo sobre os condutores portugueses de veículos ligeiros

RESUMO - Objetivos: Anualmente morrem cerca de 1,3 milhões de pessoas, a nível mundial, devido aos acidentes de viação. Também mais de 20 milhões de pessoas sofrem ferimentos ligeiros ou graves devido aos acidentes de viação que resultam em incapacidade temporária ou permanente. Desta forma, consideram-se os acidentes de viação, um grave problema de saúde pública, com custos elevados para as sociedades afetando a saúde das populações e economias de cada país. Este estudo pretendeu descrever e caracterizar os condutores de veículos ligeiros, residentes em Portugal Continental, abrangendo características sociodemográficas, experiência de condução e questões relativas a atitudes, opiniões e comportamentos. Por outro lado procurou-se analisar a associação entre as opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos, auto reportados e a ocorrência de um acidente de viação nos últimos três anos a fim de construir um modelo final preditivo do risco de sofrer um acidente de viação. Método: Foi realizado um estudo observacional analítico transversal baseado num questionário traduzido para a língua portuguesa e com origem no projeto europeu SARTRE 4. A população-alvo foram todos os condutores de veículos ligeiros possuidores de uma licença de condução e residentes em Portugal Continental, baseado numa amostra de igual dimensão à definida no estudo europeu SARTRE 4 (600 condutores de veículos ligeiros). Das 52 perguntas existentes, selecionaram-se pela análise de componentes principais (ACP) variáveis potencialmente independentes e complementares para as componentes opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos. Para além das medidas descritivas usuais, recorreu-se à regressão logística binária para analisar associações e obter um modelo que permitisse estimar a probabilidade de sofrer um acidente rodoviário em função das variáveis selecionadas referentes às opiniões, atitudes e comportamentos auto reportados. Resultados: Dos 612 condutores inquiridos, 62,7% (383) responderam não ter sofrido nenhum acidente de viação nos últimos três anos enquanto 37,3% (228) respondeu ter estado envolvido em pelo menos um acidente de viação com danos materiais ou feridos, no mesmo período. De uma forma geral, o típico condutor que referiu ter sofrido um acidente nos últimos três anos é homem com mais de 65 anos de idade, com o 1º ensino básico, viúvo e sem filhos, não empregado e reside numa área urbana. Os condutores residentes numa área suburbana apresentaram um risco 5,368 mais elevado de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que habitam numa zona rural (IC 95%: 2,344-12,297; p<0,001). Os condutores que foram apenas submetidos uma vez a um controlo de álcool, nos últimos três anos, durante o exercício da condução apresentaram um risco 3,009 superior de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que nunca foram fiscalizados pela polícia (IC 95%: 1,949-4,647, p<0,001). Os condutores que referiram muito frequentemente parar para dormir quando se sentem cansados a conduzir têm uma probabilidade inferior de 81% de sofrer um acidente de viação em relação aos condutores que nunca o fazem (IC 95%: 0,058-0,620; p=0,006). Os condutores que quando cansados raramente bebem um café/bebida energética têm um risco de 4,829 superior de sofrer um acidente de viação do que os condutores que sempre o referiram fazer (IC 95%:1,807-12,903; p=0,002). Conclusões: Os resultados obtidos em relação aos fatores comportamentais vão ao encontro da maioria dos fatores de risco associados aos acidentes de viação referidos na literatura. Ainda assim, foram identificadas novas associações entre o risco de sofrer um acidente e as opiniões e as atitudes auto reportadas que através de estudos de maiores dimensões populacionais poderão vir a ser mais exploradas. Este trabalho vem reforçar a necessidade urgente de novas estratégias de intervenção, principalmente na componente comportamental, direcionadas aos grupos de risco, mantendo as existentes.

DYNAMOD – A dynamic agent based modelling framework for digital businesses

Digital Businesses have become a major driver for economic growth and have seen an explosion of new startups. At the same time, it also includes mature enterprises that have become global giants in a relatively short period of time. Digital Businesses have unique characteristics that make the running and management of a Digital Business much different from traditional offline businesses. Digital businesses respond to online users who are highly interconnected and networked. This enables a rapid flow of word of mouth, at a pace far greater than ever envisioned when dealing with traditional products and services. The relatively low cost of incremental user addition has led to a variety of innovation in pricing of digital products, including various forms of free and freemium pricing models. This thesis explores the unique characteristics and complexities of Digital Businesses and its implications on the design of Digital Business Models and Revenue Models. The thesis proposes an Agent Based Modeling Framework that can be used to develop Simulation Models that simulate the complex dynamics of Digital Businesses and the user interactions between users of a digital product. Such Simulation models can be used for a variety of purposes such as simple forecasting, analysing the impact of market disturbances, analysing the impact of changes in pricing models and optimising the pricing for maximum revenue generation or a balance between growth in usage and revenue generation. These models can be developed for a mature enterprise with a large historical record of user growth rate as well as for early stage enterprises without much historical data. Through three case studies, the thesis demonstrates the applicability of the Framework and its potential applications.

Pair trading: Clustering based on principal component analysis

This study focuses on the implementation of several pair trading strategies across three emerging markets, with the objective of comparing the results obtained from the different strategies and assessing if pair trading benefits from a more volatile environment. The results show that, indeed, there are higher potential profits arising from emerging markets. However, the higher excess return will be partially offset by higher transaction costs, which will be a determinant factor to the profitability of pair trading strategies. Also, a new clustering approach based on the Principal Component Analysis was tested as an alternative to the more standard clustering by Industry Groups. The new clustering approach delivers promising results, consistently reducing volatility to a greater extent than the Industry Group approach, with no significant harm to the excess returns.

A infecção por Helicobacter pylori em populações de Angola

RESUMO: A infecção por H. pylori, enquadra-se nas doenças infecciosas gastroduodenais e estima-se que mais de 50% da população mundial esteja infectada. A história natural da infecção por H. pylori, sofre interferências relacionadas com a genética do hospedeiro, a estirpe e as características da toxicidade da bactéria. Associam-se a estes factores, o tempo de exposição à infecção, assim como as condições sociais e higiéno-sanitárias. Paralelamente, o H. pylori é considerado o principal agente patogénico das doenças gastroduodenais. Este estudo teve como objectivo principal caracterizar a infecção por H. pylori em populações de Angola e sua avaliação como problema de Saúde Pública. Trata-se de um estudo prospectivo dirigido a dois grupos populacionais, um constituído por indivíduos aparentemente saudáveis, sem queixas gástricas específicas, em ambiente de comunidade, Grupo I, e outro, Grupo II, constituído por doentes que acorreram ao serviço de Gastrenterologia do Hospital Militar Principal de Luanda (HMP). No que diz respeito ao estudo na comunidade a pesquisa de H. pylori foi realizada pelo método ELISA de pesquisa de antigénios nas fezes. Por sua vez, a nível hospitalar, os métodos de diagnóstico da infecção por H. pylori foram: a endoscopia digestiva alta para a colheita de biópsias da mucosa gástrica destinadas ao exame anatomopatológico, ao exame citobacteriológico e aos métodos moleculares. Como método não invasivos foi utilizado o teste respiratório com ureia marcada. Grupo I: o diagnóstico da infecção por H. pylori, realizado pela pesquisa de antigénios deste microrganismo nas fezes, revelou uma frequência de 69,6% na população em estudo. Considerando em cada região, verificou-se que a região do Sambizanga possuía o valor mais elevado de frequência, 81,2%, seguida do Dinge com 79,5%, estatisticamente significativas (p 0,001). A avaliação da distribuição da frequência da infecção por grupo etário, revelou que os indivíduos com idade inferior a 15 anos, possuíam uma frequência de infecção de 63,5% e sendo de 76% nos indivíduos com idade superior a 15 anos. Este estudo permitiu concluir que a frequência da infecção por H. pylori nas regiões estudadas, é de 70% à excepção do Capulo, zona litoral em que não obstante as precárias condições de saneamento, a frequência da infecção por H. pylori é baixa. Grupo II: dos 309 doentes avaliados, verificou-se que 22 (7%), apresentavam uma mucosa normal e 287 (93%) uma mucosa alterada. A avaliação histológica das biópsias do antro, em 270 amostras de acordo com o Sistema de Sidney, em 235 (87,0%), revelou a presença de gastrite, 13 (4,8%) a presença de úlcera e em 9 (3,3%), uma lesão tumoral. A avaliação histológica da actividade nas 226 amostras do antro gástrico, verificou-se que 129 (57%) possuíam actividade e 97 (43%) não possuíam. O estudo das 255 biópsias do corpo, revelou em 212 (83,1%), a presença de lesões de gastrite, em 7 (2,7%), observaram-se lesões tumorais e 2 (0.8%) apresentaram úlcera. Dos 263 doentes avaliados histologicamente para pesquisa do H. pylori, 148 (58,2%) revelaram a presença positiva desta bactéria e 106 (41,7%) foram negativas. No que diz respeito à susceptibilidade aos macrólidos, do universo de 158 doentes com H. pylori positivo, 125 (79,1%) doentes apresentaram estirpes sensíveis aos macrólidos e 33 (20,9%) estirpes resistentes. Em relação aos factores de virulência, na avaliação conjunta dos dois factores de virulência estudados (cagA e vacA), em relação ao tipo de lesões encontradas na mucosa gástrica, verificou-se que dos 11 doentes com úlcera, 7 (63,6%), apresentavam uma estirpe cagA negativa, sendo 6 vacA s1 (85,7%), uma s2 e 4 (36,3%) com uma estirpe cagA positiva e vacA s1. Por sua vez dos 2 doentes com tumor, ambas as estirpes eram cagA negativas, sendo uma vacA s1 e outra vacA s2. Em relação aos factores de virulência nos doentes aos quais se diagnosticou úlcera e tumor apresentavam estirpe cagA negativa, vacAs1. Em relação ás lesões gástricas inflamatórias, os doentes com gastrite apresentavam cagA positivo. Do presente trabalho, em atenção aos resultados obtidos no que concerne a prevalência em populações sem queixas gastrenterológicas, recomenda-se que o mesmo se possa vir a replicar numa abrangência maior, realizando-se, por exemplo, estudos comparativos de prevalência entre as populações residentes no litoral (beira-mar) e as do interior. Pelas características genotípicas de H. pylori, em correspondência com as lesões encontradas, após novos estudos mais abrangentes, recomenda-se a avaliação de uma terapêutica mais acessível para o doente e que seja de maior eficácia. Face à escassez de médicos especialistas em gastrenterologia em Angola e de meios de diagnóstico, recomenda-se um estudo mais alargado da eficácia do seguimento do doente dispéptico, conforme protocolo avaliado pelo Colégio da Especialidade de Gastrenterologia da Ordem dos Médicos de Angola e já em prática em algumas instituições de saúde.--------------------------- ABSTRACT: H.pylori infection, is part of the gastroduodenal infectious diseases and it is estimated that over 50% of the world population is infected. The natural history of H.pylori infection, is influenced by host genetic, strain type, of bacterial virulence factors, time of exposure to the infection, as well as social and hygienic-sanitary conditions. In parallel, H.pylori is considered the main pathogen of gastroduodenal diseases. This study's main objective was to characterize H.pylori infection in populations of Angola and its evaluation as a public health problem. This is a prospective study conducted in two population groups, one in community environment composed by healthy individuals without specific gastric complaints - Group I, and Group II consisting of patients who went to the Gastroenterology Service of the Hospital Military of Luanda (HMP). As regards to the study in the community detection of H.pylori was carried out by antigen search in faeces using ELISA method. At hospital level H.pylori infection diagnostic methods were: upper gastrointestinal endoscopy to obtain gastric mucosal biopsies for histology, culture and molecular methods. As a non-invasive breath test with labelled urea was used. Group I: the diagnosis of H.pylori infection, by antigens detection in faeces, revealed a frequency of 69.6% in the study population. Whereas in each region, it was found that the Sambizanga region had the highest frequency of positive cases, 81.2% , followed by Dinge with 79.5%, Funda with 78.7 and Capulo with 39.8% being differences statistically significant (p=0.001). The evaluation of the distribution of the infection frequency by age group, revealed that individuals younger than 15 years had a frequency of 63.5% and in individuals older than 15 years, 76%. This study showed that the frequency of H.pylori infection in the regions studied was 70% exception due to Capulo, a coastal zone where despite the poor sanitation conditions; the frequency of H.pylori infection is lower. Group II: from the 309 patients evaluated, it was found that 22 (7%) had a normal mucosa and 287 (93%) a modified mucosa. Histological evaluation of antrum biopsies in 270 samples according to the Sydney System revealed the presence of gastritis in 235 (87.0%), the presence of ulcers in 13 (4.8%) and a tumour in 9 (3 3%). Histological assessment of activity in the gastric antrum of 226 samples, revealed that 129 (57%) had activity and 97 (43%) did not. The evaluation of the 255 corpus biopsies showed in 212 (83.1%), the presence of lesions of gastritis, in 7 (2.7%) tumour lesions and in 2 (0.8%) an ulcer. Of the 263 patients histological evaluated for H.pylori, 148 (58.2%) revealed the presence of this bacteria and 106 (41.7%) were negative. As regards susceptibility to macrolides from the universe of 158 patients with H.pylori, 125 (79.1%) patients had macrolides susceptible strains and 33 (20.9%) resistant strains. Regarding virulence factors (vacA and cagA), it was found that from the 11 patients with ulcers, 7 (63.6%), had a cagA negative strain, being 6 vacA s1, (85.7%) one vacA s2 and 4 (36.3%) with a cagA positive strain vacA s1. Concerning the 2 patients with tumour, both strains were cagA negative, one vacA s1 and other vacA s2. Patients with ulcer and tumour had cagA negative strains vacAs1. From this work, considering the prevalence of H.pylori obtained in health population, it is recommended that the same study should be performed in larger scale to confirm these results. The results of H.pylori genotyping suggest that more comprehensive studies are needed. Given the reduce number gastroenterology specialist in Angola and the lack of diagnostics methods, we recommend a larger study of the effectiveness of follow-up the patient dyspeptic, according to the protocol assessed by the College of Gastroenterology Specialty of the Order of Doctors and Angola already in place in some health institutions.

An agent-based simulator to estimate domestic energy use

Throughout recent years, there has been an increase in the population size, as well as a fast economic growth, which has led to an increase of the energy demand that comes mainly from fossil fuels. In order to reduce the ecological footprint, governments have implemented sustainable measures and it is expected that by 2035 the energy produced from renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar would be responsible for one-third of the energy produced globally. However, since the energy produced from renewable sources is governed by the availability of the respective primary energy source there is often a mismatch between production and demand, which could be solved by adding flexibility on the demand side through demand response (DR). DR programs influence the end-user electricity usage by changing its cost along the time. Under this scenario the user needs to estimate the energy demand and on-site production in advance to plan its energy demand according to the energy price. This work focuses on the development of an agent-based electrical simulator, capable of: (a) estimating the energy demand and on-site generation with a 1-min time resolution for a 24-h period, (b) calculating the energy price for a given scenario, (c) making suggestions on how to maximize the usage of renewable energy produced on-site and to lower the electricity costs by rescheduling the use of certain appliances. The results show that this simulator allows reducing the energy bill by 11% and almost doubling the use of renewable energy produced on-site.

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction of Polaromonas sp. strain JS666: analysis of cDCE degradation rates and design of experiments for bioremediation improvement

Release of chloroethene compounds into the environment often results in groundwater contamination, which puts people at risk of exposure by drinking contaminated water. cDCE (cis-1,2-dichloroethene) accumulation on subsurface environments is a common environmental problem due to stagnation and partial degradation of other precursor chloroethene species. Polaromonas sp. strain JS666 apparently requires no exotic growth factors to be used as a bioaugmentation agent for aerobic cDCE degradation. Although being the only suitable microorganism found capable of such, further studies are needed for improving the intrinsic bioremediation rates and fully comprehend the metabolic processes involved. In order to do so, a metabolic model, iJS666, was reconstructed from genome annotation and available bibliographic data. FVA (Flux Variability Analysis) and FBA (Flux Balance Analysis) techniques were used to satisfactory validate the predictive capabilities of the iJS666 model. The iJS666 model was able to predict biomass growth for different previously tested conditions, allowed to design key experiments which should be done for further model improvement and, also, produced viable predictions for the use of biostimulant metabolites in the cDCE biodegradation.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

A public transport bus assignment problem: parallel metaheuristics assessment

Combinatorial Optimization Problems occur in a wide variety of contexts and generally are NP-hard problems. At a corporate level solving this problems is of great importance since they contribute to the optimization of operational costs. In this thesis we propose to solve the Public Transport Bus Assignment problem considering an heterogeneous fleet and line exchanges, a variant of the Multi-Depot Vehicle Scheduling Problem in which additional constraints are enforced to model a real life scenario. The number of constraints involved and the large number of variables makes impracticable solving to optimality using complete search techniques. Therefore, we explore metaheuristics, that sacrifice optimality to produce solutions in feasible time. More concretely, we focus on the development of algorithms based on a sophisticated metaheuristic, Ant-Colony Optimization (ACO), which is based on a stochastic learning mechanism. For complex problems with a considerable number of constraints, sophisticated metaheuristics may fail to produce quality solutions in a reasonable amount of time. Thus, we developed parallel shared-memory (SM) synchronous ACO algorithms, however, synchronism originates the straggler problem. Therefore, we proposed three SM asynchronous algorithms that break the original algorithm semantics and differ on the degree of concurrency allowed while manipulating the learned information. Our results show that our sequential ACO algorithms produced better solutions than a Restarts metaheuristic, the ACO algorithms were able to learn and better solutions were achieved by increasing the amount of cooperation (number of search agents). Regarding parallel algorithms, our asynchronous ACO algorithms outperformed synchronous ones in terms of speedup and solution quality, achieving speedups of 17.6x. The cooperation scheme imposed by asynchronism also achieved a better learning rate than the original one.

An agent based architecture to support monitoring in plug and produce manufacturing systems using knowledge extraction

In recent years a set of production paradigms were proposed in order to capacitate manufacturers to meet the new market requirements, such as the shift in demand for highly customized products resulting in a shorter product life cycle, rather than the traditional mass production standardized consumables. These new paradigms advocate solutions capable of facing these requirements, empowering manufacturing systems with a high capacity to adapt along with elevated flexibility and robustness in order to deal with disturbances, like unexpected orders or malfunctions. Evolvable Production Systems propose a solution based on the usage of modularity and self-organization with a fine granularity level, supporting pluggability and in this way allowing companies to add and/or remove components during execution without any extra re-programming effort. However, current monitoring software was not designed to fully support these characteristics, being commonly based on centralized SCADA systems, incapable of re-adapting during execution to the unexpected plugging/unplugging of devices nor changes in the entire system’s topology. Considering these aspects, the work developed for this thesis encompasses a fully distributed agent-based architecture, capable of performing knowledge extraction at different levels of abstraction without sacrificing the capacity to add and/or remove monitoring entities, responsible for data extraction and analysis, during runtime.

The burden of chronic low back pain in the adult Portuguese population : an epidemiological population-based study under the scope of Epireumapt

RESUMO: Nos países desenvolvidos a lombalgia é a condição músculo-­‐esquelética mais prevalente. Quando evolui para um quadro crónico é responsável por um encargo económico bastante considerável, não só em relação aos indivíduos, mas também para a sociedade. A lombalgia crónica é por isso uma das principais causas de perda de produtividade e de perda de independência económica, nomeadamente através do absenteísmo (ausência do trabalho), do presenteísmo (perda de produtividade no trabalho, devido à capacidade diminuída provocada pela lombalgia) e da incapacidade para trabalhar (invalidez permanente, total ou parcial). Até à data, em Portugal, a prevalência e carga social da lombalgia crónica eram desconhecidas. Até agora não existiam estudos populacionais de grande dimensão sobre este tema. O objetivo principal desta tese foi determinar a prevalência de lombalgia crónica, e também avaliar a carga social que esta tem na população adulta Portuguesa. O trabalho de investigação foi desenvolvido no âmbito do Estudo Epidemiológico de Doenças Reumáticas em Portugal (EpiReumaPt). Este foi o primeiro estudo de larga escala e de base populacional, que determinou a prevalência de doenças reumáticas e músculo-­‐ esqueléticas na população adulta portuguesa. Foi realizado numa amostra aleatória e representativa, de 10.661 indivíduos do Continente, da Região Autónoma dos Açores e da Região Autónoma da Madeira, entre Setembro de 2011 e Dezembro de 2013. Esta tese foi dividida em duas secções. A primeira secção incluiu o detalhe das questões relativas ao desenvolvimento e gestão do EpiReumaPt, constituindo-­‐se como um guia prático sobre como realizar um estudo de base populacional de larga escala, em Portugal. A metodologia detalhada do EpiReumaPt foi também descrita nesta secção e incluiu os objectivos, o desenho do estudo, as características de recrutamento e a preparação de dados para análise. Nesta secção foram ainda descritos os principais resultados do EpiReumaPt. Estes evidenciaram que a lombalgia foi a condição músculo-­‐esquelética com maior prevalência na população adulta portuguesa.A segunda secção desta tese estimou a prevalência da lombalgia crónica ativa na população adulta Portuguesa, e avaliou a carga social esta condição. A lombalgia ativa foi definida com base na dor auto-­‐relatada no dia da entrevista e que persistia há pelo menos 90 dias (independentemente da causa). A lombalgia foi definida como dor na área definida entre a margem inferior das décimas segundas costelas até às pregas glúteas inferiores, com ou sem dor nos membros inferiores. A carga social foi medida tendo em conta os seguintes parâmetros: qualidade de vida, função, consumo de recursos de saúde, consumo de analgésicos e outros fármacos usados no alívio da dor, sintomas de ansiedade e sintomas de depressão. Os resultados mostraram que o consumo de recursos em saúde e a carga social da lombalgia crónica na população adulta Português é significativa. Também a incapacidade causada pela lombalgia crónica,nos indivíduos com idade ativa, é responsável por elevadas taxas de absenteísmo e má qualidade de vida, aos quais acresce o consequente ónus socioeconómico. Esta tese também concluiu que o consumo de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, na população adulta portuguesa com lombalgia crónica ativa, é relativamente baixa. A maioria destes indivíduos não tomava nenhum medicamento analgésico, independentemente da intensidade da dor. Mesmo os indivíduos que reportaram dor intensa, apenas 4.0% estavam no primeiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial de Saúde; 2.3% usavam opióides fracos e 0.03% usavam opióides fortes para controlar a dor (segundo e terceiro degrau da escada analgésica da Organização Mundial da Saúde). O trabalho de investigação também confirmou que a prevalência de sintomas de ansiedade e depressão entre os indivíduos adultos portugueses com lombalgia crónica ativa é elevada. Nestes indivíduos, registou-­‐se um consumo mais elevado de analgésicos e outros medicamentos para alívio da dor, quando comparados com os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica activa sem esses sintomas psicológicos. Os grupos terapêuticos mais utilizados foram os ansiolíticos, sedativos e hipnóticos, os antidepressivos e os anti-­‐inflamatórios não esteróides. A intensidade média da dor reportada foi também maior entre os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas de ansiedade e/ou depressão. Também nestes, foi reportada pior função e pior estado de saúde. Em relação ao consumo de recursos de saúde foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre as duas populações: os indivíduos com lombalgia ativa e sintomas psicológicos concomitantes registaram maior número de consultas de psiquiatria de outras especialidades médicas, assim como precisaram de mais apoio domiciliário nos 12 meses prévios à entrevista do EpiReumaPt. Foram também identificados os fatores associados a sintomas isolados de ansiedade, a sintomas isolados de depressão e a sintomas de ansiedade e depressão. Resumindo,esta tese permitiu concluir que a lombalgia crónica é um problema de saúde comum na população adulta portuguesa, contribuindo para um elevado grau de incapacidade e que consequentemente afeta o desempenho laboral e o bem-­‐estar dos indivíduos. A lombalgia crónica é também responsável por um consumo considerável de recursos de saúde. Acresce ainda que os sintomas de ansiedade e depressão são comuns, entre os indivíduos com lombalgia crónica, contribuindo com uma carga social adicional.---------------------------------- ABSTRACT:Low Back Pain(LBP) is the most prevalent of musculoskeletal condition in developed countries.When it becomes chronic, LBP causesan enormous economic burden on individuals and society -­‐ it is one of the leading causes of loss of productivity and economic independence through absenteeism (time off work), presenteeism (lost productivity because of diminished capacity while at work) and work disability (permanent, partial or complete disablement for work purposes). In Portugal the prevalence and burden of LBP and chronic LBP (CLBP) were poorly defined. Until now no large population-­‐based studies have focused on this. The main aim of this thesis was to determine the prevalence of LBP and CLBP, and also to assess the burden of CLBP in the adult rtuguese population. The research work was developed under the scope of EpiReumaPt (the Portuguese Epidemiologic Study of Rheumatic Diseases). EpiReumaPt was the first national large population-­‐based and prevalence study of rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMD). It was performed among a randomized and representative sample of 10,661 adult Portuguese subjects recruited in Mainland, Azores and Madeira Islands, from September 2011 to December 2013. The first section of this thesis included detailed issues regarding the development and management of EpiReumaPt, and provided a practical guide on how to set-­‐up a large population-­‐based study in Portugal. The detailed methodology of EpiReumaPt, including its objectives,study design,recruitment features,and data preparation for analyses were also described. The main results from EpiReumaPt study were provided in this section and showed that LBP was the musculoskeletal condition with highest prevalence among Portuguese population. The second section of this thesis estimated the prevalence of active CLBP among adult Portuguese population, and assessed the social burden of this condition. Active CLBP was defined based on self-­‐reported pain on the day of the interview, and for most of the time for at least 90 days (independently from cause). LBP was defined as pain in the back area from the lower margin of the twelfth ribs to he lower gluteal folds, with or without pain referred to the lower limbs. Social burden was measured taking into account the following outcomes: quality of life, function, healthcare resources consumption, analgesic and other pain relief drugs intake, anxiety and depression symptoms. Results showed that the healthcare consumption and social burden of CLBP among adult Portuguese population were enormous, and the disability caused by CLBP among subjects in a working age provides high rates of absenteeism (work loss) and poor quality of life, with a consequent socioeconomic burden. This thesis also concluded that analgesic and other pain relief drugs untake among adult Portuguese population with active CLBP was very low. Most of the subjects with active CLBP did not take any analgesic drug regardless pain severity. Even when subjects self-­‐reported severe pain, only 24.0% were in the 1st step of the analgesic ladder,2.3% used weak analgesic opioids and 0.03% used strong opioids (2nd and 3rd step of WHO analgesic ladder, respectively) to control pain . The research work also confirmed that the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms among adult Portuguese subjects with active CLBP was high. Regarding pharmacological therapy, the intake of analgesic and other pain relief drugs was higher among subjects with anxiety and/or depression symptoms, when compared with subjects without these psychological symptoms. Anxiolytics, sedatives and hypnotics, antidepressants and NSAIDs intake had higher usage rates among these subjects. The pain severity mean was also higher among this subjects and function and health status was worse. Regarding healthcare resources consumption,significant differences between the two populations were found. Subjects with ctive CLBP and concomitant psychological symptoms had a higher number of psychiatrist and other physician visits. They also needed more home care in the previous 12 months. Factors associated with isolated symptoms of anxiety, depression,and concomitant anxiety and depression symptoms were also identified. Summarizing, we concluded that CLBP is a common health problem among adult Portuguese population contributing to disability and affecting labor performance, and the well being of subjects. it is also responsible for considerable healthcare resource consumption. Anxiety and depression symptoms are common among subjects with CLBP and provided an additional burden among them.

Assessment of a novel Cu (II) complex as a potential anticancer agent

Widely used in cancer treatment, chemotherapy still faces hindering challenges, ranging from severe induced toxicity to drug resistance acquisition. As means to overcome these setbacks, newly synthetized compounds have recently come into play with the basis of improved pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties. With this mind-set, this project aimed towards the antiproliferative potential characterization of a group of metallic compounds. Additionally the incorporation of the compounds within a nanoformulation and within new combination strategies with commercial chemotherapeutic drugs was also envisaged. Cell viability assays presented copper (II) compound (K4) as the most promising, presenting an IC50 of 6.10 μM and 19.09 μM for HCT116 and A549 cell line respectively. Exposure in fibroblasts revealed a 9.18 μM IC50. Hoechst staining assays further revealed the compound’s predisposition to induce chromatin condensation and nuclear fragmentation in HCT116 upon exposure to K4 which was later demonstrated by flow cytometry and annexin V-FITC/propidium iodide double staining analysis (under 50 % cell death induction). The compound further revealed the ability to interact with major macromolecules such as DNA (Kb = 2.17x105 M-1), inducing structural brakes and retardation, and further affecting cell cycle progression revealing delay in S-phase. Moreover BSA interactions were also visible however not conclusive. Proteome profiling revealed overexpression of proteins involved in metabolic activity and underexpression of proteins involved in apoptosis thus corroborating Hoechst and apoptosis flow cytometry data. K4 nanoformulation suffered from several hindrances and was ill succeeded in part due to K4’s poor solubility in aqueous buffers. Other approaches were considered in this regard. Combined chemotherapy assays revealed high cytotoxicity for afatinib and lapatinib strategies. Lapatinib and K4 proteome profiling further revealed high apoptosis rates, high metabolic activity and activation of redundant proteins as part of compensatory mechanisms.