Noise traders, rational traders, and the rest: A new approach to efficient financial markets

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Corporate finance in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets: A survey

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How to improve supply chain performance of a specialized retailer: Managing landed costs of Zippy’s global supply chain

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Carbon prices. Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável

Atores num Mundo Global: a análise do ciclo de vida e o processo de avaliação de impacte ambiental como instrumento de apoio à tomada de decisão

O tema da presente dissertação inscreve-se na complexa problemática da informação de suporte à tomada de decisão de infraestruturas básicas, com destaque para as denominadas “Trans European Networks – TENS”, infraestruturas de transportes, energia e telecomunicações. Tais processos de decisão, para além das abordagens mais comuns utilizadas nos Estudos de Impacte Ambiental (EIA), podem (devem?) considerar outras perspetivas assentes em considerações de impactes no ciclo de vida, em concreto a Análise do Ciclo de Vida (ACV), e integrar abordagens de procura de sustentabilidade nas vertentes económicas, ambiental e social. Aí chegados, estaremos mais próximos das estradas com melhor desempenho ambiental. A importância do tema firma-se na constatação da ansiedade e expectativas que normalmente envolvem os processos de decisão deste tipo de infraestruturas, principalmente quando as pessoas tomam conhecimento (1) que a sua concretização pode gerar impactes negativos no ambiente, de forma não limitada ao espaço local onde se inserem, mas antes causando efetivos danos ambientais a uma escala mais global. Nestas circunstâncias é comum sobrevirem processos de tensão entre as necessidades locais, promotoras dos empreendimentos, e as dinâmicas globais, conflitos que podem ser evitados, ou pelo menos atenuados, na medida em que os respetivos processos de decisão sejam mais informados e mais esclarecidos e esclarecedores da opinião pública. Não há dúvida que este género de projetos/empreendimentos/infraestruturas serão tendencialmente mais bem aceites pela Sociedade na medida em que sejam vistos local, regional e globalmente, como “ambientes construídos” que se baseiam na eficiência dos recursos e em princípios ecológicos saudáveis, que contribuem para o desenvolvimento económico, para a melhoria das condições de vida das populações e para a coesão social e territorial.Para um processo de decisão ser convenientemente instruído, é crucial que realce todos estes aspetos perante a sociedade. A estrutura adotada no trabalho articula uma primeira parte de embasamento teórico, com uma segunda parte que experiencia o estudo de um caso concreto, a abordagem de sustentabilidade na procura de uma estrada com satisfatório desempenho ambiental.

Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

Wind Power in the Portuguese Landscape: Global Concerns and Local Costs

Wind turbines and solar panels are becoming second nature in Portugal, as its occurrence in the country becomes ubiquitous. Somehow, one could argue that renewable energy in Portugal is in the process of ‘naturalisation’ as part of a new – mechanised, but environmentally benign – landscape. Portuguese Institute for the Conservation of Nature and Biodiversity (ICNB) has shown an ambiguous stance on this issue, defending global concerns towards renewable energy, while at the same time attempting to engage locals in the preservation of extensive ‘classified areas’. In the course of this research, we tried to focus on these incongruities and to analyse how they are impacting local communities during the process of wind power installation.

An empirical study on the global mindset antecedents

The forces of globalization are changing the skills and competences required by effective global leadership. Accordingly, Business Schools (BSs) must adapt curriculums to the new queries so they, in fact, do develop future leader able to meet the challenges ahead. Increasing attention is being placed on global mindset (GM). Yet, this concept lacks research support. To help fulfilling this gap this research analyzes the effect that cultural intelligence (CQ) and a set of both personal and psychological characteristics have on GM enhancement. Based on a sample of academic students (N=220), findings suggested that CQ, vacations abroad and cosmopolitanism directly increase GM, while # language, PsyCap, TA and CSA do it indirectly. Practical implications for BSs and conclusions finalize this study.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

How to increase and attract more tourists into Kenya throught experiental marketing

This marketing plan project is a culmination of extensive strategies with the use of experiential marketing to address issues confronting the Kenyan tourism industry in order to have a sustainable tourism sector. Following the terrorist attack carried out by Islamist militants’ belonging to al-Shabaab terrorist organization on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping mall in September 2013, tourist forecast has gone down sharply with an average of 20% fall in tourists’ arrivals which is likely to have an impact on the tourism sector in Kenya. Even before the deadly attack on Westgate, the most lethal attack by Islamist terrorists in 15 years in Kenya, the government through the Kenya tourist board had announced that in 2013 tourist arrivals were down by 12%, at 495,978, according to an October 2013 report by Bloomberg. Tourism revenues were also down by 7.4%, over FY12/13 (July-June) to reach KES96.24bn, according to a September 2013 report on the local Capital FM website. Beyond 2013, much will depend on how quickly the Kenya tourist board can regain control of the situation. The Kenyan government believes that the Westgate mall attack was a 'one-off' incident, with a low probability of a similar event happening again over the short term period. Germany, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, France and Canada continue to be the key source market however; the Kenya tourist board can make continued growth stronger from new emerging markets in order to increase new arrivals into the country. The marketing plan outlines the objectives to be implemented and provides the implementation strategy, activity plans, monitoring and evaluation plans, financial requirements projections and proposes a new structure of experiential marketing. A number of regional forces are identified that will impact tourism into the country including global, social and economic forces, emerging trends in visitor motivations and behavior, emerging forces in experiential marketing. A major component of the strategy identifies target markets for Kenya to commensurate with the level of resources that will be available for marketing and promotion, in keeping with the forces and trends identified and the nature of the Kenya tourism environment. The agreed upon target market segments are: generic/mass travel, experiential travel, creative travel, adventure seeking travel, senior/extended/long stay travel, and business related travel. The strategy phases the development of the target markets over the years of the marketing strategies in order to yield the best opportunity for results. A core activity in developing a marketing strategy is determining the nature of experiences Kenya offers in tourism. The strategy’s experience development process will continue to develop within the context of the products identified which will be promoted regionally: culture/heritage, nature, community-based. Each county in the country has a significant number of attractions and experiences and the challenge of the country is to bring these together in a creative and innovative way in order to encourage tourists to visit more than one county in Kenya.

Enquadramento da Segurança privada nos desafios da segurança global

O estágio, cujo relatório é agora apresentado, foi desenvolvido na Securitas SA., uma das maiores empresas de segurança privada do mundo, com filiais em quase todos os continentes. Procurou-se perceber qual o enquadramento mais adequado ao exercício da segurança privada em Portugal, designadamente no ponto de vista da maior empresa de segurança privada no mundo, face aos novos tipos de ameaça e de necessidades dos seus clientes ou público-alvo. O enfoque da análise assenta nas limitações impostas não pela capacidade técnico-operacional dos prestadores deste tipo de serviço, mas sim pelas restrições impostas pela legislação em vigor e a sua adequação às necessidades demonstradas. O objectivo final é a elaboração de um relatório que deverá conter as considerações que se destacarem no que respeita às dificuldades encontradas e consequentes respostas ou soluções para as mesmas.

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Hotel industry: An answer to the emerging trends on the global demand side of tourism

This dissertation studies essentially how Millennials are changing the hotel industry, in the sense that new trends are emerging with this generation and hotels need to respond accordingly, in order to survive within their competitive industry. Emphasis is also given to Asian travellers, as the enlargement of these countries’ middle class populations is predicted, therefore making Asian travellers a valuable target for the hotel industry. To successfully target this segment, hoteliers need also to consider the cultural differences and aspirations that come together with the Asian travellers, and appropriately adapt their offer to them. I will then redirect this study to the city of Lisbon, the Portuguese capital, to analyse if Lisbon’s four and five-star hotel managers are aware of the new market trends, and to understand how they are changing their hotels in order to make them more attractive to Millennials and Asian travellers. Using a sample of 12 hotels (four and five-stars ratings), I have concluded that, although there is a notable undergoing process of adaptation to these guests, there is a long way ahead in order for Lisbon’s hotels to entirely please and retain millennial guests.

A saúde mental global, a depressão, a ansiedade e os comportamentos de risco nos estudantes do ensino superior : estudo de prevalência e correlação

RESUMO: A saúde mental é influenciada pelos comportamentos tanto como estes são influenciados pela saúde mental. Por isso é importante compreender quer a saúde mental quer os comportamentos adoptados pelo indivíduo em qualquer momento do seu ciclo vital para melhor poder actuar quando e sempre que necessário. Nos estudantes universitários, não sendo uma população de risco, a saúde mental e os comportamentos de risco afectam não só o próprio estudante e quem com ele convive mas também as próprias instituições que o acolhem. O presente estudo teve como objectivos: nos estudantes universitários 1) caracterizar a saúde mental global; 2) caracterizar os níveis de sintomatologia depressiva e ansiosa; 3) identificar os padrões de comportamentos de risco; 4) analisar a relação entre saúde mental global, depressão, ansiedade e comportamentos de risco. Para tal realizou-se um estudo quantitativo, descritivo, correlacional, transversal e exploratório com 1968 estudantes do 1º ciclo da Universidade da Beira Interior e dos Institutos Politécnicos da Guarda, Castelo Branco e Portalegre. Foram utilizados como instrumentos de investigação uma ficha de Caracterização Socio-Demográfica; o Mental Health Inventory-5; o Patient Health Questionnaire-9; Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7; e o Questionário de Comportamentos de Risco em Estudantes Universitários. Os principais resultados mostraram que 18,3% (n=360) apresentavam saúde mental negativa; 17,7% sintomatologia depressiva moderada a severa; 15,6% sintomatologia ansiosa moderada a severa; e que apenas 15% dos que apresentavam saúde mental global negativa recorreu a ajuda profissional. As mulheres, os alunos de 1ª e 4º ano, e os alunos dos cursos de Artes e Letras apresentavam níveis de saúde mental global inferiores. O Consumo de álcool foi superior nos homens, nos estudantes das áreas de Ciências e Ciências da Saúde e nos estudantes deslocados. Os estudantes com mais de 3 unidades curriculares em atraso apresentavam maior sintomatologia depressiva e ansiosa. Os resultados mostraram ainda que quanto mais positiva a saúde mental global maior o consumo de bebidas alcoólicas e menor a sintomatologia depressiva e ansiosa. As variáveis Curso e Sexo influenciam significativamente a saúde mental global, a depressão e a ansiedade. Apesar de a maioria dos estudantes inquiridos não revelar problemas de saúde mental nem apresentar comportamentos de risco, as principais conclusões apontam para a necessidade de programas de educação para a saúde assim como de programas de literacia de saúde mental para as instituições poderem identificar precocemente as situações problemáticas e ajudar os próprios estudantes a reconhecer em si o sofrimento psicológico e a necessidade de procurar apoio profissional.---------------------------------- ABSTRACT: Mental health is influenced by behaviours as much as behaviours are influenced by mental health. Thus, it is important to understand not only the mental health but also the behaviours adopted by an individual at any stage of its vital cycle in order to accurately intervene whenever and always deemed necessary. Regarding college students, despite not being deemed as a population at risk, mental health and risk behaviours affect not only the student itself and whoever interacts with him but also the institutions that host them. The main purposes of this study were regarding college students 1) characterize the overall mental health; 2) characterize the levels of depression and anxiety symptoms; 3) identify the risk behaviours patterns; and 4) analyse the relation between overall mental health, depression, anxiety and risk behaviours. With that scope a quantitative, descriptive, correlated, transversal and exploratory study has been conducted with 1968 students of the 1st cycle of the University of Beira Interior and of the Polytechnic Institutions of Guarda, Castelo Branco and Portalegre. The investigation instruments used were a chart of Socio-Demographic Characterization; the Mental Health Inventory-5; the Patient Health Questionnaire-9; the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7; and one Questionnaire of Risk Behaviours in College Students. The main results showed that 18.3% (n=360) revealed negative mental health; 17.7% moderated to severe depression symptoms; 15.6% moderated to severe anxiety symptoms; and that only 15% of those revealing negative overall mental health have seek for professional help. Females, students of the 1st and 4th years and students of the Artes and Letras courses revealed inferior levels of overall mental health. Alcohol consumption is higher in males, in the Sciences and Health Sciences’ students and on displaced students. Students with more than 3 curricular units in delay revealed higher depression and anxiety symptoms. The results also showed that the more positive overall mental health the higher alcohol consumption and the lower depression and anxiety symptoms. The Course and Sex variations significantly influence the overall mental health, the depression and the anxiety. Although the majority of the enquired students did not reveal mental health issues or present risk behaviours, the main conclusions indicate the need to implement health education and mental health literacy programmes in order to enable the institutions to prematurely identify problematic situations and help students to recognize the psychological suffering and the need to seek for professional help.