Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Mark Rothko : Da origem mítica à refundação artística do mundo

Fenómeno assinalável no nosso século foi a emergência da chamada “arte global” (Belting), dando conta da crise do “mundo da arte” e a disseminação generalizada das práticas artísticas. Neste contexto a obra de Rothko ganha uma força inesperada. Sendo usualmente inscrito no “modernismo” com os seu valores de pureza e especificidade do meio, neste caso a pintura, a nossa investigação revela que o gesto Rothkoniano excede largamente esta representação, que levaria a distinguir radicalmente entre uma fase mítica e surrealista, uma fase abstracionista dos “colour field” e finalmente uma fase sublime das pinturas da Capela Ecuménica de Rothko. Existe uma continuidade evidente que remete para uma geoestética, onde a terra e a sua habitabilidade desempenham um papel crucial. Daí a necessidade de inscrever a obra de Rothko na geofilosofia contemporânea, tal com foi delineada por Gilles Deleuze e Félix Guattari. Procedeu-se, assim, a uma análise crítica da obra e da estética de Rothko, que profeticamente, mas inconscientemente, parece abrir o caminho para o pensamento de uma arte da terra. Trata-se de uma linha de continuidade que atravessa toda a obra de Rothko, refletindo uma picturação do mundo e a vontade de criar de um mundo pictórico e poético, reduzido a elementos mínimos, pós-figurativos mas onde se reconhece a incidência dos motivos como frame e abertura, linha de horizonte e pórticos e passagens. Num segundo momento, explora-se essa dimensão “inconsciente” num projeto artístico pessoal, que se desdobra em abordagens picturais, de pintura, de instalação e de vídeo, que denominamos por “A Terra como Acontecimento”. Este projeto prolonga o esforço Rothkoniano, ao mesmo tempo que o altera profundamente, nomeadamente pelo uso dos materiais, pela mutação no uso da cor, bem como pela maneira como os elementos figurativos são radicalmente alterados pela mera transposição da perspetiva usada. Se a ressonância rothkoniana está bem presente, não menos presente está a intenção de um confronto dialogante com a Obra de Mark Rothko. Aquilo que neste importante artista, era o inconsciente, marcado pelo mito e teologia, pela delimitação da linha de horizonte, bem clássica, e, acima de tudo, pela sua verticalidade marcadamente teológica, “A Terra como Acontecimento” é a matéria que é profundamente radicalizada, bem como a lógica concetual, a qual é preferentemente circular, sem orientação absoluta, e incompleta, o que implica uma outra visão da “abertura”/”fecho”, tão essencial na obra de Rothko. Desta investigação espera-se um contributo significativo para os debates atuais sobre a arte na contemporaneidade.

A negociação no mercado a prazo do MIBEL

This master thesis has been developed during the internship in the Supervision Department of Supervision of the Intermediation and Market Structures of CMVM. My collaboration in such department was mainly focused on the derivatives market of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL). MIBEL embodies two organized markets – the derivatives market in Portugal and the spot market in Spain The trading activity in the derivatives market of MIBEL is processed through the trading platform of the regulated market managed by OMIP, however, much of the negotiation is over-the-counter. The aim of this work is to describe the market from a legal and economic perspective and to analyse the evolution of the negotiation, namely the impact of OTC in the regulated market trading. To achieve this, I propose to analyse also MiFID and EMIR rules over derivative contracts and the role of central counterparties, as they both are important to the discussion. In parallel, we found that OTC transactions are considerably higher than those traded in the regulated market managed by OMIP, those findings can be justified by the contractual relationships based on trust already established between the partiesarties. Nevertheless, since 2011 this trend changed by an increase of the registered OTC. Thereafter, although the parties continued to trade bilaterally, these transactions were registered in a central counterparty in order to eliminate the inherent risks related to the OTC derivatives transactions. This change in the negotiation pattern may also be influenced by the mandatory reporting of transactions imposed by EMIR, that requires for some classes of derivatives the centralized clearing and for all other requires the implementation of risk mitigation techniques.

Should my company use Bitcoin?

This work project analyses the possibility for a company to trade their goods and services for bitcoins, by joining the Bitcoin network. It analyses the technological and business requirements to join the Bitcoin Network by looking at Bitcoin’s potential to act as a mean of exchange for trade, unit of account and store of value. The analysis points to the motives, benefits and risks for investors to use the Bitcoin as a traditional currency and recommends on strategies for addressing those risks and maximizing benefits. Other than companies this report, to a lesser extent, will also analyse the Bitcoin from an investor’s point of view, this is, should an investor buy bitcoins for trade and make savings on a regular and everyday basis? A major finding in this work project is that companies could start using the Bitcoin system as a legit form of payment since the benefits of using this technology outweigh the costs and risks, given the right approach. This form of payment will contribute for the upgrade of a company’s business’ image, attract a new pool of consumers and businesses that already trade in bitcoins and pressure existing financial institutions and electronic payment vendors to upgrade their service levels.