Banking crises: The impact of financial liberalization

This paper intends to study whether financial liberalization tends to increase the likelihood of systemic banking crises. I used a sample of 79 countries with data spanning from 1973 to 2005 to run a panel probit model. I found that, if anything, financial liberalization as measured across seven different dimensions tends to decrease the probability of occurrence of a systemic banking crisis. I went further and did several robustness tests – used a conditional probit model, tested for different durations of liberalization impact and reduced the sample by considering only the first crisis event for each country. Main results still verified, proving the results’ robustness.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Lovers and Madmen: The Μανία-Φρονεῖν Opposition in Plato’s Phaedrus

In this thesis we propose to examine the first half of the Phaedrus (sc. until the end of the palinode) in light of the opposition between the notions of μανία and φρονεῖν, as they are explicitly and implicitly presented in the erotic speeches. These are read in dialogue with what we have designated as the “implicit speech” or “speeches”, i.e., the plurality of conceptions regarding ἔρως, μανία and φρονεῖν that were part of Ancient Greek culture. Our reading of the two speeches against ἔρως, Lysias’ and Socrates’ first speech, engages with this cultural background, and extracts a conception of μανία and φρονεῖν with which the palinode will primarily confront. Our reading of the palinode divides it into two sections: the first, the presentation of the first three kinds of beneficial μανία; the second, the mythical narrative that deals with erotic μανία. We emphasise the existence of a wide gulf between these two moments in terms of their ontological, theological and anthropological conceptions. The second section of the palinode is revolutionary not only in contrast with the “implicit speech” and the speeches against ἔρως, but also in contrast with the very beginning of the palinode – which preserves many of the conceptions and assumptions found in the previous speeches and in the cultural tradition. It is in order to explain the foundation, meaning and significance of this gulf that we explore and discuss the notion of ὑπόθεσις and its role as an implicit operator in the Phaedrus. From our reading of the second part of the palinode, it is clear how the introduction of the ὑπερουράνιος τόπος brings about a radical revision of the perspectives on the nature of reality and on human nature and condition that were implicit in the previous speeches and in the first part of the palinode. We show that the ὑπερουράνιος τόπος corresponds to the projection of a multiplicity of cognitive and desiderative requirements that our normal perspective demands, but cannot possibly satisfy. In other words, our perspective is shown to be living beyond its means, yearning for something that by far exceeds what it can get in its de facto condition: the superlative. This results in a major revision of the understanding of φρονεῖν and μανία – a revision that challenges the traditional understanding of these two notions as binary opposites, thereby revealing a much more complex landscape.

The early metallurgy in Southwestern Iberia: metals from the Chalcolithic Settlement of São Pedro (Redondo)

Archaeological excavations carried out in the archaeological site of São Pedro (Southern Portugal) revealed a Chalcolithic settlement occupied in different moments of the 3rd millennium BC. The material culture recovered includes different types of materials, such as ceramics, lithics and metals. The later comprises about 30 artefacts with different typologies such as tools (e.g. awls, chisels and a saw) and weapons (e.g. daggers and arrowheads) mostly belonging to the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the 3rd millennium BC. In the present work the collection of chalcolithic metallic artefacts recovered in São Pedro was characterized. Analytical studies involved micro energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (micro-EDXRF) to determine elemental composition, together with optical microscopy and Vickers microhardness testing for microstructural characterisation and hardness determination. Main results show copper with variable amounts of arsenic and very low content of other impurities, such as iron. Moreover, nearly half of the collection is composed by arsenical copper alloys (As > 2 wt.%) and an association was found between arsenic content and typology since the weapons group (mostly daggers) present higher values than tools (mostly awls). These results suggest some criteria in the selection of arsenic-rich copper ores or smelting products. Furthermore, after casting an artefact would have been hammered, annealed and sometimes, finished with a hammering operation. Additionally, microstructural variations in this collection reveal somewhat different operational conditions during casting, annealing and forging, as expected in such a primitive metallurgy. Moreover the operational sequence seems to be used to achieve the required shape to the object, rather than to intentionally make the alloy harder. Overall, this study suggests that Chalcolithic metallurgists might have a poor control of the addition of arsenic and/or were unable to use this element to increase the hardness of tools and weapons. Finally, the compositions, manufacturing processes and hardness were compared to those from neighbouring regions and different chronological periods.

Ethical leadership and reputation: Combined indirect effects on organizational deviance

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Business Ethics following peer review. The version of record Neves, P., & Story, J. (2015). Ethical Leadership and Reputation: Combined Indirect Effects on Organizational Deviance. Journal of Business Ethics, 127(1), 165–176. “The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10551-013-1997-3”.

As necessidades e redes de apoio de famílias de pessoas com perturbação do espectro do autismo

RESUMO: O objectivo do presente estudo consistiu em avaliar as necessidades de apoio de 63 pais com filhos (crianças, jovens ou adultos) com Perturbação do Espectro Autista (PEA), no que diz respeito a: (1) necessidades de apoio identificadas pelos pais, (2) redes de suporte destes pais e (3) relação entre necessidades de apoio e características dos pais e filhos. Todos os pais tinham participado no 1º nível do projecto nacional intitulado “Oficinas de Pais/Bolsas de Pais” – o Grupo de Apoio Emocional (GAE). No sentido de verificar se ocorreram mudanças nas suas necessidades de apoio, avaliou-se o antes (momento I) e o depois do GAE (momento II). Utilizou-se a Escala de Funções de Apoio Social (Dunst, Trivette, & Deal, 1988) para avaliar as necessidades de apoio e a Escala de Apoio Social (Dunst, Trivette, & Deal, 1988) para avaliar as redes de apoio social. Os resultados demonstram que os pais de pessoas com PEA apresentam (tanto antes como após a frequência nas oficinas do GAE) sobretudo necessidades de apoio de carácter emocional e profissional, e menos necessidades de carácter prático. Para suprir as necessidades de apoio, antes e após o GAE, estes pais recorreram, numa primeira opção, ao cônjuge, aos profissionais e posteriormente aos amigos. Os vizinhos constituíram a rede de apoio social a quem menos recorreram. Apesar de algumas diferenças observadas entre o momento I e momento II, estas não foram estatisticamente significativas nem para as necessidades de apoio, nem para as redes de apoio social.------------------------- ABSTRACT: The study aimed to evaluate the support needs of 63 parents of children, adolescents and adults with Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD), concerning three aspects: (1) support needs that parents identified as major target, (2) social support network of these parents, and (3) the relationship between support needs and parent and children characteristics. All parents had participated in the first level of the national project “Oficinas de Pais/Bolsas de Pais” - the Emotional Support Group (ESG). In order to verify if any changes occurred in the needs of support, evaluation was carried before (moment I) and after (moment II) the ESG. In this context, parents filled the Supports Function Scale (Dunst, Trivette, & Deal, 1988), which evaluated their different needs of support, and also the Social Supports Scale (Dunst, Trivette & Deal, 1988) which in turn evaluated their social support network. The results showed that parents of children with ASD, both before and after the ESG, revealed emotional and professional needs and, in a less extent, also practical needs. To address the referred needs (before and after the ESG) these parents seek in the first place the support of their spouse, then that of professionals and, later on, that of friends. Neighbours are the support that parents least address. Despite some observed differences in support needs and social support networks between the two moments, these were, however, not statistically significant.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Variação temporal da protoporfirina-zinco PPZ em trabalhadores expostos a chumbo

RESUMO - O doseamento da protoporfirina-zinco (PPZ) vem sendo preconizado como indicador a utilizar em primeira linha nos programas de monitorização biológica da exposição profissional a chumbo. A PPZ apresenta um elevado grau de associação com a plumbemia e representa, num dado momento, o efeito metabólico do chumbo sobre a ferro- -quelatase (enzima catalisadora da incorporação do ferro na protoporfirina IX) ao longo dos anteriores cerca de três meses. Num estudo incidindo sobre 67 trabalhadores expostos a chumbo, do sexo masculino, os autores avaliaram a variação da PPZ em relação à plumbemia determinada num determinado momento (t0) e em sucessivos doseamentos efectuados cerca de 30 (t1), 60 (t2) e 90 (t3) dias após esse momento. Da análise dos resultados obtidos conclui-se que em trabalhadores expostos a chumbo de modo considerado estável (com níveis de Pb-S entre 30 e 78 μg/dL) a PPZ não variou significativamente ao longo do período de tempo considerado. Deste modo, parece poder concluir-se que os resultados de PPZ são representativos do nível de exposição (inferida pelos níveis de dose interna) pelo menos em relação ao período de cerca de três meses anteriores, correspondendo à resposta orgânica consequente à dose em causa.

The effect of music marketing: A consumer perspective

The purpose of this thesis is to get a consumer perspective regarding event marketing in music festivals. Event marketing is a tool used by marketers that evolved out of philanthropy and commercial sponsorship. Brands are more and more using music or other entertainment moments to create a strong relationship with their clients, and the target group at these events, the millennial generation. Brands use sponsoring and therefore event marketing for several reasons as: increase brand awareness; create brand image; re-position the brand/product in the minds of consumers; increase profit over a short period; and, achieve larger market share. Nonetheless, we wonder how is this tool seen by consumers? To understand this, a preliminary research with nine interviews was conducted to obtain basic ideas about event marketing. Afterwards the main research was developed, also using interviews, to get deeper insights. With this thesis, it is possible to conclude that some brands are able to create brand awareness on attendees through brand sponsorship. Moreover, entertainment activities in festivals are well seen by consumers, they like it and are able to describe it well, even though it is more about the activity itself than the brand promoting it. Furthermore, it was possible to understand that experiential marketing in a festival might have a positive effect on consumers as it might create a link between the event and the brand. Finally, we recommend some actions, for brands to develop in future music festivals.

Desenvolvimento de competências digitais nos internos da Associação Assistencial Amigos do Amanhã

A presente pesquisa tem por objetivo investigar mediante observações e entrevistas as consequências da implantação de uma política inclusiva, utilizando-se de tecnologias de informação e comunicação (TIC) em uma associação assistencial. Possibilitando, através da disponibilização de computadores e programas educativos, observar o desenvolvimento do sujeito portador de condições cognitivas desfavoráveis em função de problemas associados a fatores físicos e socioeconômicos. Buscou-se com este trabalho, através de uma abordagem qualitativa de natureza aplicada, analisar quais elementos determinantes de boa absorção de conteúdos e desenvolvimento de competências estão suscetíveis a entraves, verificando-se o quanto do fator motivacional pode estar envolvido no processo, identificando formas de se trabalhar a retenção e participação dos internos da instituição. A diversidade de anseios e expectativas associadas às condições cognitivas de cada participante foi determinante para acarear as representações de grupos distintos em suas particularidades, onde cada indivíduo apresentava uma resposta diferente aos estímulos apresentados durante o processo de exposição do material educacional. Concluiu-se que a política de inclusão digital objetivando minimizar os efeitos da marginalização de um contingente esquecido pela sociedade, tem de estabelecer critérios de continuidade e diversificação, onde, além de perseguir resultados voltados ao desenvolvimento de competências, deve possibilitar momentos de ludicidade para todos os internos em associações assistenciais.