An ANP model to support decision-making in a Portuguese pharmaceutical supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

A simulation model for lean, agile, resilient and green supply chain management: practices and interoperability assessment

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Modelling lean and green supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Taxes and labor supply: Portugal, Europe, and the United States (Conference version)

I relate hours worked with taxes on consumption and labor. I propose a model and compare its predictions for Portugal, France, Spain, United Kingdom and United States. Hours per worker in Portugal decreased from 35.1 in 1986 to 32.6 in 2001. With only the parameters and the taxes for Portugal, the model predicts the hours worked in 2001 with an error of only 12 minutes from the actual hours. Across countries, most predictions differ from the data by one hour or less. The model is able to explain the trend in hours with only the changes in taxes.

Taxes and labor supply: Portugal, Europe, and the United States

I relate hours worked with taxes on consumption and labor for Portugal, France, Spain, United Kingdom and United States. From 1986 to 2001, hours per worker in Portugal decreased from 35.1 to 32.6. With the parameters for Portugal, the model predicts hours worked in 2001 with an error of only 12 minutes from the actual hours. Across countries, most predictions differ from the data by one hour or less. The model is not sensible to special assumptions on the parameters. I calculate the long run effects of taxes on consumption, hours, capital and welfare for Portugal. I extend the model to discuss implications for Social Security. I discuss the steady state and the transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully funded system.

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How to improve supply chain performance of a specialized retailer: Managing landed costs of Zippy’s global supply chain

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Saúde Mental em meio prisional : avaliação de necessidades de cuidados em reclusos com perturbação mental

RESUMO: A população prisional é constituída por indivíduos geralmente sujeitos a alguma forma de exclusão social e que apresentam problemas de saúde física e mental mais frequentes do que na população em geral. A prevalência mais elevada de perturbações mentais e de suicídio nos reclusos, em relação à população civil, é consensual e está demonstrada em numerosos estudos internacionais. O abuso/dependência de substâncias, a depressão, as psicoses e a perturbação anti-social de personalidade são as perturbações mais comuns na população prisional. As perturbações mentais são importantes factores de risco de suicídio, de vitimização, de reincidência e de reentrada no sistema prisional. Assim sendo, o grupo de reclusos com perturbação mental constitui um grupo de risco relevante. A avaliação de necessidades de cuidados foi iniciada no Reino Unido como um método para o planeamento, medição dos resultados e financiamento dos cuidados de saúde. Para esta avaliação foram desenvolvidos instrumentos que avaliam as necessidades em diversos domínios (clínicos e sociais) para aplicação aos utentes, cuidadores e profissionais. Até aos anos noventa, a avaliação de necessidades no contexto prisional incidia especialmente nas necessidades de segurança dos serviços, segundo a perspectiva dos profissionais. Contudo, a partir do relatório Reed (1992), sobre a situação dos reclusos com perturbação mental, verificou-se uma abordagem mais abrangente, que incluía a avaliação das necessidades de cuidados dos reclusos. Embora as necessidades dos reclusos com perturbação mental pareçam ser similares às dos doentes psiquiátricos em geral, existem diferenças em determinados domínios como a comorbilidade do eixo II, o abuso de substâncias e o risco de violência. Por este motivo, as necessidades de cuidados de saúde mental dos reclusos são elevadas e frequentemente não se encontram satisfeitas. De forma a incluir estas especificidades foi desenvolvida a versão forense do Camberwell Assessment of Need (CAN), designada por CAN - Forensic Version (CANFOR). Actualmente existe um consenso generalizado entre as instituições internacionais do dever de proporcionar aos reclusos cuidados de saúde, de prevenção e de tratamento, equivalentes aos cuidados disponíveis para a população civil - o princípio da equivalência de cuidados. A presente investigação pretendeu caracterizar e avaliar as necessidades de cuidados dos reclusos acompanhados nos serviços de psiquiatria prisionais na área da Grande Lisboa (internamento no Serviço de Psiquiatria do Hospital Prisional de S. João de Deus (HPSJD) e consultas nos Estabelecimentos Prisionais (EP) de Caxias e de Tires). De modo a estabelecer uma comparação com sujeitos civis foi seleccionada uma amostra de conveniência de pacientes acompanhados num departamento de psiquiatria da mesma região, segundo um emparelhamento por sexo, escalão etário, e por diagnóstico, num período de 3 meses. Realizou-se um estudo de tipo observacional, transversal e comparativo. Aplicaram-se os seguintes instrumentos de avaliação: questionário específico, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale 4.0, Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview 5.0.0, Global Assessment Functioning, CAN-R e CANFOR-R. No período do estudo (12 meses) foram assistidos 149 reclusos, dos quais, 35 (23,5%) não cumpriram os critérios de inclusão. A amostra final de reclusos (PRs) (n=114) foi constituída por 79 homens (69,3%) e 35 mulheres (30,7%), dos quais 77 eram condenados (67,5%) e 37 (32,5%) encontravam-se detidos preventivamente. A amostra final de participantes civis (PCs) foi constituída por 121 indivíduos, dos quais 76 eram homens (62,8%) e 45 eram mulheres (37,2%).A amostra final de participantes civis (PCs) foi constituída por 121 indivíduos, dos quais 76 eram homens (62,8%) e 45 eram mulheres (37,2%). Relativamente aos PRs, o diagnóstico mais frequente foi a Perturbação Anti-social da Personalidade (57,9%), seguida pela Depressão Major (56,1%). A maioria (53,5%) apresentava três ou mais categorias diagnósticas. Aproximadamente um terço dos PRs (30%) pontuou o nível elevado de risco de suicídio. A probabilidade deste risco aumentava, significativamente, nos portadores de Depressão Major, de um maior nível de psicopatologia e de uma condenação actual. Perto de metade dos PRs (47,4%) possuía duas ou mais condenações prévias e mais de metade estavam envolvidos em crimes contra pessoas (53,5%). A probabilidade de condenações múltiplas foi significativamente superior nos portadores de Perturbação Antisocial da Personalidade e nos reclusos com maior número de necessidades totais. Entre os PRs dos dois sexos, as principais diferenças significativas residiram na maior frequência de consumo de substâncias e no maior número de necessidades de cuidados nãosatisfeitas nos homens versus mulheres. A comparação entre os PRs, antes da detenção, e os PCs mostrou que os primeiros possuíam menor escolaridade, menos medicação psiquiátrica, mas mais emprego e mais consumos de substâncias ilícitas. A Perturbação Anti-social da Personalidade (OR=26,4; IC95%: 10,7-64,9), a Perturbação Pós-stress Traumático (OR=15,0; IC95%: 3,5-65,4), a Dependência/Abuso de Substâncias (OR=8,5; IC95%: 4,2-17,6) a Depressão Major (OR=2,6; IC95%: 1,5-4,4) e o Risco de Suicídio Elevado (OR=2,6; IC95%: 1,4-5,0) foram significativamente mais frequentes nos PRs versus PCs. Relativamente à avaliação de necessidades de cuidados, os PRs mostraram maior número de necessidades não-satisfeitas e maior necessidade de ajuda profissional, em relação aos PCs. Embora diversas necessidades não-satisfeitas possam resultar da condição de recluso, outras, em domínios da saúde física, da segurança do próprio e dos consumos tóxicos, poderão indicar que os PRs recebem um nível de cuidados inferior ao necessário, em comparação com os PCs. Os PRs apresentaram patologia mental, predominantemente não-psicótica e elevado risco de suicídio/auto-agressão, associado a depressão, necessidades de cuidados e uma pena de prisão. Possuíam, numa frequência elevada, características, consistentemente, associadas à reincidência criminal (personalidade anti-social, consumos tóxicos, condenações anteriores), pelo que se justifica um especial acompanhamento deste grupo, no período pré e pós-libertação. A comparação de necessidades de cuidados no contexto civil e prisional indica um maior nível de necessidades e um menor nível de cuidados recebidos pelos PRs, em relação aos PCs. O princípio da equivalência de cuidados poderá estar comprometido nos indivíduos reclusos com perturbação mental. A utilização do CANFOR foi fácil e poderá contribuir para um melhor planeamento, oferta e avaliação de resultados ao nível individual. Os PRs e PCs revelaram características clínicas e de necessidades muito diferentes entre si, pelo que, os reclusos com perturbação mental deverão ser assistidos em serviços de saúde mental preparados para abordar as suas especificidades.---------------ABSTRACT: The prison population is generally made up of individuals who are usually subject to some sort of social exclusion and who show physical and mental problems more frequently than the general population. Various international studies have found higher rates of mental disturbances and suicide within the prison population. The most common mental disturbances found are substance abuse or dependency, depression, psychosis, and anti-social personality disturbance. Such mental disturbances are important factors in suicide, victimization, delinquency recurrence, and the risk of reentry into prison. As a result, prison inmates with mental disturbances are a relevant at risk group. Assessment of needs of care first started in the United Kingdom as a method of care planning, results measuring and finance health care. The method involved the development of certain measuring instruments to be used by patients, caregivers and professionals in order to evaluate needs in various domains (clinical and social). Until the nineties, the assessment of needs of care in a prison context focused mainly on the service’s security needs. However, after the Reed (1992) report on mentally disturbed inmates, a much wider approach was considered, which included evaluation of the inmate’s needs of care. However similar mentally disturbed prison inmates’ needs may appear to those of other psychiatric patients, there are some differences in particular domains, namely, co-morbidity of Axis II, substance abuse and the risk of violence. For this reason, inmates’ mental health care needs are high and very often not met. In order to include these specificities, a forensic version of the Camberwell assessment of need (CAN,) designated CAN – Forensic version (CANFOR) was developed. There is now generalized consensus among international institutions of the duty under the equivalent health care principle to provide inmates with preventative health care and treatment, that are equivalent to the care available to the civil population. This investigation aims to characterize and assess the health care provision of prison inmates admitted to Lisbon’s Psychiatric Prison ward - the Psychiatric Ward of São João de Deus Hospital (HPSJD) - and inmates in the Caxias and Tires Prison Establishments (EP) undertaking outpatient treatment. In order to establish a comparison between prison and civilian patients, a convenience sample was selected from civilian patients being treated in a psychiatric ward in the same geographical area. This sample was paired by gender, age group and diagnosis during a three month period. The study was observational, transversal and comparative. The following measuring instruments were used: a purpose-built questionnaire, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale 4.0, Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview 5.0.0, Global Assessment Functioning Scale, CAN-R and CANFOR-R. During the research period (12 months), 149 inmates received care, of whom 35 (23.5%) did not comply with the prerequisite criteria of this study. The final sample of inmates (PRs) (n=114) comprised 79 men (69.3%) and 35 (30.7%) women, of whom 77 (67.5%) were convicted prisoners and 37 (32.5%) were in preventive custody. The final sample for Civilian Participants (PCs) was made up of 121 individuals, of whom 76 (62.8%) were men and 45 (37.2%) were women. The most common diagnosis among the PRs was Anti-Social Personality Disorder (57.9%), followed by Major Depression (56.1%). More than half of the subjects in the sample (53.5%) showed three or more diagnostic categories. Approximately one third (30%) of the PRs showed a high level of suicide risk. The probability of this risk was significantly higher among Major Depression patients, those showing a higher level of psychopathology and those with a current conviction. Almost half of the PRs (47.4%) had been given two or more prior convictions and more than half (53.5%) were involved in crimes against people. The probability of multiple convictions was significantly higher among inmates with Anti-Social Personality Disorder and in those with more total needs. With regard to gender, the main significant difference among the PRs was that men were found to have a higher frequency of substance use and a greater number of unsatisfied caring needs than women. Comparison between the PRs prior to detention and PCs revealed that the former held lower educational qualifications and received less psychiatric medication, but had higher levels of employment and showed greater consumption of illicit substances. In addition Anti-Social Personality Disorder (OR=26.4; IC 95%: 10.7-64.9), Post-Stress Traumatic Disturbance (OR=15.0; IC 95%: 3.5-65.4), Substance Dependency/Abuse (OR=8.5; IC 95%: 4.2-17.6), Major Depression (OR=2.6; IC 95%: 1.5-4.4), and High Suicide Risk (OR=2.6; IC 95%: 1.4-5.0) were significantly more frequent amongst PRs than PCs. The results for needs assessment revealed that the PRs showed higher levels of unmet needs and a greater need for professional help in comparison with the PCs. Although various unmet needs may result from the inmate’s condition, other needs - in particular those regarding physical health, personal security and toxic substance use - suggest that the care given to PRs may be inadequate in comparison with that given to PCs. This implies that the principle of equivalent health care for PRs with mental illnesses may not be upheld. Furthermore, the mental morbidity results of the PRs indicated that they suffer predominantly from non-psychotic and high suicide/self inflicted aggression risk associated with depression, caring needs and a prison sentence. They also often showed characteristics that are consistently associated with criminal recidivism (Anti-social Personality, use of toxic substances, prior convictions). This result justifies that there should be special follow-up for this group in the pre- and after release period. The use of CANFOR proved to be simple and the application delay was acceptable. No difficulties were encountered in the understanding of its categories by its users. As a result, itcould contribute towards better planning, supply and assessment of results at an individual level. Given that the PRs and PCs revealed different clinical and needs characteristics, it is recommended that inmates with mental disturbances should be assisted in mental health services that are adequately prepared to address their specificities.

Exposição a ozono em cabinas de avião

RESUMO - O ozono é o principal componente da poluição fotoquímica do ar. Como agente irritante do aparelho respiratório, os seus efeitos sobre a saúde caracterizam-se, essencialmente, por tosse, dispneia, desconforto torácico e alterações da função pulmonar, encontrando-se também associadas à exposição ambiental a O3 tanto uma maior frequência e gravidade de crises de asma como a ocorrência de quadros clínicos de irritação conjuntival. É sobretudo a partir dos anos 50, com a descoberta de concentrações elevadas de ozono em ambientes de trabalho respeitantes à actividade de soldadura «a arco», que aquele gás passa a ser encarado como factor profissional de risco. No início dos anos 60 surgem os primeiros estudos de exposição a O3 em cabinas de avião, suscitados pela ocorrência, em tripulantes e passageiros, de queixas clínicas de irritação do tracto respiratório. Esta sintomatologia era, até então, atribuída à acção de outros factores, designadamente o sistema de ventilação e o baixo teor de humidade do ar. Posteriormente, alguns estudos revelaram que, em voos comerciais subsónicos, os teores elevados de O3 observados no interior das cabinas poderiam ser provocados pela sua insuficiente destruição nos sistemas de entrada de ar.O presente estudo, efectuado em voos de longo curso realizados em aeronaves Airbus A340-300 numa única rota comercial, teve por objectivo avaliar a exposição a ozono no ar interior em cabina de avião. Os teores médios de concentração de ozono observados foram inferiores aos valores susceptíveis de provocarem efeitos adversos sobre o aparelho respiratório. Como valor máximo instantâneo, foi atingida a concentração de 152 ppb. Adicionalmente, foi constatada a influência das estações do ano nos teores de O3. O conjunto dos resultados obtidos permite concluir que as concentrações de ozono no ar interior nas cabinas de avião estudadas são inferiores às correspondentes concentrações máximas admissíveis, tendo, em todos os voos, sido observado o cumprimento da norma da FAA respeitante à protecção da exposição ao ozono em cabinas de aeronaves de aviação comercial.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Influence of Lean and Green on supply chain performance: an interpretive structural modelling model

This work aims to identify and rank a set of Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures on which managers should focus to achieve competitiveness and improve the performance of automotive supply chains. The identification of the contextual relationships among the suggested practices and measures, was performed through literature review. Their ranking was done by interviews with professionals from the automotive industry and academics with wide knowledge on the subject. The methodology of interpretive structural modelling (ISM) is a useful methodology to identify inter relationships among Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures and to support the evaluation of automotive supply chain performance. Using the ISM methodology, the variables under study were clustered according to their driving power and dependence power. The ISM methodology was proposed to be used in this work. The model intends to provide a better understanding of the variables that have more influence (driving variables), the others and those which are most influenced (dependent variables) by others. The information provided by this model is strategic for managers who can use it to identify which variables they should focus on in order to have competitive supply chains.

Improvement of Lipton’s business model through wholesalers and traditional supermarkets channel

Field Lab in Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

How to monitor and improve Unilever JM Supply Chain processes to become the best of Portugal’s sector in 2015?

Unilever Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese joint-venture leading firm in what concerns the supply chain industry of fast-moving consumer goods in Portugal. The scope of analysis of this Work Project is focusing on Unilever-JM operations and services in the Portuguese market regarding quality, efficiency and effectiveness over B2B customers. It will be analysed the possibility of development and implementation of a performance measurement system, Tableau de Bord, which will be crucial for the identification of potential opportunities of improvement with impact in the supply chain processes. This will be completed through the establishment of KPI’s to monitor and manage periodically logistics, planning and customer service processes’ performance, which are the ones where the bottlenecks are impacting more in the supply chain. In this work project the nexus causality for the problems will also be discussed and some recommendations will be prepared to tackle the inefficiencies found through the monitoring of the previous core processes, in order to improve efficacy and quality service of the supply chain.