Liquidity, business cycles and monetary policy: A simulation

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The Course of Conflict. A Study in the Thought of Paul Ricoeur

Esta tese leva a cabo uma clarificação conceptual e uma reconstrução histórica da noção de conflito, tal como ela aparece na filosofia. Num primeiro momento, analisa-se o fenómeno do conflito na fonte Grega (em Homero, Heraclito, Platão, nas tragédias gregas e nas formas de interação agonística no espaço público) e na filosofia moderna (principalmente em Kant, Hegel e Marx). Num segundo momento, estabelece-se, nos seus traços gerais, uma cartografia da recuperação desta noção na contemporaneidade através da discussão das contribuições provenientes da teoria crítica (Habermas, Honneth, Hunyadi), da sociologia pragmática (Boltanski, Thévenot) e da filosofia política anglo-saxónica (Rawls, Walzer, Taylor), entre outras. Estas partes iniciais da tese desembocam numa análise aprofundada da obra do filósofo francês Paul Ricoeur e das muitas instanciações do conflito nessa obra, naquilo a que chamo o “percurso do conflito” no pensamento de Ricoeur. Neste “percurso do conflito” o objetivo é duplo: por um lado, provar que o conflito é a pedra de toque não só da filosofia de Ricoeur, mas também de um grande conjunto de outros autores; por outro lado, que é necessário reavaliar o papel desta noção no debate contemporâneo e que nesse contexto a filosofia de Ricoeur e as suas análises finas e plurais podem ser de uma grande utilidade. Assim sendo, este “percurso do conflito” divide-se em três partes, as quais lidam com diferentes tipos de conflito: conflitos “existenciais”, “hermenêuticos” e “práticos”. Ao longo destas partes, várias disciplinas são chamadas à colação, como a hermenêutica, a psicanálise e a filosofia prática (ética, filosofia política e filosofia social), numa tentativa de esclarecer os diferentes fenómenos em causa. Em última instância, chega-se à conclusão que o conflito é inevitável em filosofia, tal como na vida, mas que este não é (pelo menos não em todas as suas formas e instanciações) um fenómeno estritamente negativo; por vezes, os conflitos podem ser criativos e positivos. Porém, aceitar este facto implica igualmente consentir que o reconhecimento dos conflitos está intrinsecamente ligado à busca de soluções para eles, formas de lidar com eles e torná-los criativos e positivos. Para que possa ser compreendido, em traços gerais, como é que estes procedimentos funcionam, esta tese elabora uma tipologia de diferentes tipos de conflito e respetivas formas de lidar com eles, mediando-os, conciliando-os ou, nalguns casos, apenas aceitando a sua existência e mesmo multiplicando-os. A busca da melhor solução tem sempre de ser operada caso a caso. Nas partes finais da tese, e partindo das análises de Ricoeur e dos outro autores apresentadas ao longo da mesma, delineia-se o projeto de uma filosofia social hermenêutica e argumenta-se que aquilo de que precisamos hoje em dia é de uma nova crítica da razão, uma “crítica da razão miserável” que possa repensar o mundo social em novos termos e que, ao fazê-lo, possa evitar os perigos do reducionismo nas suas múltiplas formas.

Heritages, Identities, and Policy in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

In a world that has moved away from narratives based on the idea of progress, the past has established itself as a place of reference: confirming to ourselves that what we were is indispensible for sustaining what we think we are. The recovery of the past is thus one of the most common symbolic instruments used in negotiating identities. The cultural practices that have recourse to representation mechanisms that call on the past in order to consider the present always end up translating themselves, insofar as they fragment, reorganize and interpret it in their transformation, or, to use a formula that has become unavoidable, in their “invention”. Patrimonialization is one such practice. It associates the notion of heritage – which is not a given fact, but rather a socially constructed classification, and therefore one that is constantly being negotiated – with specific objects that come to serve as cultural representations of the groups who consider themselves to be their rightful owners. In the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, as in other ethnographic contexts, patrimonialization encompasses things as diverse as landscapes, monuments, popular architecture, handicrafts, local feast days/processions/pilgrimages and people; all things that can, once transformed into material representations of the past, serve as arguments for the identity fictions of the people who inhabit them.

Technology transition towards electric mobility - technology assessment as a tool for policy design

Paper presented at the Colloquium Gerpisa 2013, Paris (http://gerpisa.org/node/2085), Session n°: 19 New kinds of mobility: old and new business models

Fiscal policy under financial stress: A threshold VAR approach

The purpose of the project is to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the Portuguese GDP and how it may vary according to the state of the financial market. A Threshold VAR model is presented in which the two regimes are found using a financial stress index that divides the economy into a situation of financial stress and financial stability.

L'Oreal acquisition policy: The Body Shop case study

The Work Project I present focuses on the analysis of L’Oréal acquisition policy, trying to outline if the M&A deals it has led over the last 14 years have succeeded in creating value. By replicating the model proposed by Todd Hazelkorn, Marc Zenner and Anil Shivdasani in their paper “Creating Value with Mergers and Acquisitions”, I analyzed the 29 M&A deals that L’Oréal has led worldwide, understanding the common factors able to explain the success of such transactions. Further, I focused on The Body Shop case study, a highly criticized and controversial acquisition that has proved to be profitable and able to create value.

Product relatedness role on driving industrial policy success

This thesis aims to study how product relatedness to the current pattern of specialization influences the success of industrial policies in underdeveloped sectors. Drawing from Hausmann and Klinger (2006), this work extends the existing literature on the importance of proximity spillovers to explain economic development by focusing on underdeveloped sectors. We find that investment's success in an underdeveloped sector is more likely if it is highly related to the current pattern of specialization. However, heterogeneity amongst sectors is remarkable. Moreover, industrial policy cases are sometimes successful despite the bad odds provided by this criterion, suggesting further factors should be considered.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Escalation of conflict in FMCG industry: A negotiation case

This work project develops a case-study to be used in Negotiation courses, both in Masters programs and in executive education workshops. The case-study is based on a real-life negotiating situation in Belgium between Unilever, the second largest Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company in the world, and Delhaize, one of the most important Belgium’s retailers, with a significant international presence. We also present an analysis of the negotiation based on relevant literature. First, a brief literature review is presented about how to deal with multiple-issue negotiations and how to deal with processes of escalation of conflict. These concepts are then applied to the analysis of the case-study.

Competition policy costs to firms

The existence of competition policy forces companies to adjust their behaviour. This is also costly. Using a database from a company on contracts, I will try to estimate if a specific competition policy disposition, supply contracts cannot be longer than 60 months, has costs for the coffee suppliers operating in the Portuguese “on-trade” coffee market. The estimation method used in this paper will be OLS. The results suggest that limiting the duration of exclusivity contracts to 60 months can be harmful to the coffee suppliers and it can even seriously affect the market functioning. Key

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese household's demand for electricity

This project the direct rebound effect for the electricity demand in Portugal. While we find evidence of such an effect, the estimations also reflect the institutional arrangement that has characterized the electricity market in the country. Also, issues related to energy efficiency promotion are addressed in general putting into context the case study developed.

As forças de tipo gendarmerie e as operações/missões de gestão de crises da União Europeia

The European Union has taken in recent years an increasingly important role in ensuring peace and stability in the international community, and the security and defence policy of the Union has become synonymous with crisis management. The Union has addressed the issue of crisis management through two sources: the military side and the civilian side, which consists in carrying out numerous crisis management operations and missions. This study discusses the role of the European Union in conducting crisis management operations and missions and how the gendarmerie forces contribute to the success of the same. It will discuss the evolution of the European Union's security policy and the concept of crisis management, and seek to demonstrate the added value of the commitment of gendarmerie forces in operations and missions of crisis management, particularly with regard to employment of the European Gendarmerie Force. On the other hand, it will study the planning process for crisis management of the European Union, featuring the entities and agencies involved in it, and presenting the products that result from this same process. The use of Gendarmerie forces in crisis management operations and missions has significant advantages. Its use is recommended to post - conflict scenarios, in complementarity with the armed forces, in order to overcome the "security gap" that mediates the transition from the state of conflict for the period of peace and reconstruction. Gendarmerie forces can also be engaged both in military crisis management operations and civilian crisis management missions.