Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

An analog model for global macro investing

This study proposes a systematic model that is able to fit the Global Macro Investing universe. The Analog Model tests the possibility of capturing the likelihood of an optimal investment allocation based on similarity across different periods in history. Instead of observing Macroeconomic data, the model uses financial markets’ variables to classify unknown short-term regimes. This methodology is particularly relevant considering that asset classes and investment strategies react differently to specific macro environment shifts.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Low cost carriers: The case of Oporto Airport and its touristic impact in the region

Both Oporto and the North Region of Portugal definitions of tourism have evolved significantly during the past decade. In this journey it is relevant to highlight the contribution of the arrival of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) at Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport, thus contributing to a rapid expansion of this region as a tourism destination. Hence, this work project aims to understand the touristic and economic impact motivated by the entry of LCCs in Oporto and in the North Region of Portugal and tries to understand if this event was in fact an asset in the development of the aforementioned tourism destinations.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Why aren't brand names regognized as intangible assets in the financial Statements? A study of the subjectivity of brand valuation

The goal of this paper is to determine and to quantify how subjective brand valuation is. To do so, we review the different valuation methods and apply the Hirose model to a sample of 20 US companies from the technology sector. Even if the results vary in function of the rankings we choose as a comparison, we may identify the trend that brands are usually overvalued in those rankings. It explains why internally generated goodwill (which includes brand names) is not recognized as an intangible asset in the financial statements.

Financial reporting and inventory disclosure in the extractive industry

Companies in the Extractive Industry (E.I) have some particularities and special regulation that provides an interesting study of inventory and reporting in their financial statements. The theme thus chosen here, aims to make a comparison of the various methods of reporting inventories (recognition, measurement, presentation and disclosures) as well as the different accounting regulations in place. Moreover, inventories are a current asset which represents a large per cent of total assets. Another is that it also provides an opportunity for analysis of the different regulations in place for disclosures; the different standards implemented- IAS, US GAAP and/or regional standards.

Universal banks and corporate control: Evidence from the global syndicated loan market

We investigate the effects of bank control over borrower firms whether by representation on boards of directors or by the holding of shares through bank asset management divisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans, we find that banks are more likely to act as lead arrangers in loans when they exert some control over the borrower firm. Bank-firm governance links are associated with higher loan spreads during the 2003-2006 credit boom, but lower spreads during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Additionally, these links mitigate credit rationing effects during the crisis. The results are robust to several methods to correct for the endogeneity of the bank- firm governance link. Our evidence, consistent with intertemporal smoothing of loan rates, suggests there are costs and benefits from banks’ involvement in firm governance.

Optimization of wastewater quality in the Sines refinery

In order to address and resolve the wastewater contamination problem of the Sines refinery with the main objective of optimizing the quality of this stream and reducing the costs charged to the refinery, a dynamic mass balance was developed nd implemented for ammonia and polar oil and grease (O&G) contamination in the wastewater circuit. The inadequate routing of sour gas from the sour water stripping unit and the kerosene caustic washing unit, were identified respectively as the major source of ammonia and polar substances present in the industrial wastewater effluent. For the O&G content, a predictive model was developed for the kerosene caustic washing unit, following the Projection to Latent Structures (PLS) approach. Comparison between analytical data for ammonia and polar O&G concentrations in refinery wastewater originating from the Dissolved Air Flotation (DAF) effluent and the model predictions of the dynamic mass balance calculations are in a very good agreement and highlights the dominant impact of the identified streams for the wastewater contamination levels. The ammonia contamination problem was solved by rerouting the sour gas through an existing clogged line with ammonia salts due to a non-insulated line section, while for the O&G a dynamic mass balance was implemented as an online tool, which allows for prevision of possible contamination situations and taking the required preventive actions, and can also serve as a basis for establishing relationships between the O&G contamination in the refinery wastewater with the properties of the refined crude oils and the process operating conditions. The PLS model developed could be of great asset in both optimizing the existing and designing new refinery wastewater treatment units or reuse schemes. In order to find a possible treatment solution for the spent caustic problem, an on-site pilot plant experiments for NaOH recovery from the refinery kerosene caustic washing unit effluent using an alkaline-resistant nanofiltration (NF) polymeric membrane were performed in order to evaluate its applicability for treating these highly alkaline and contaminated streams. For a constant operating pressure and temperature and adequate operating conditions, 99.9% of oil and grease rejection and 97.7% of chemical oxygen demand (COD) rejection were observed. No noticeable membrane fouling or flux decrease were registered until a volume concentration factor of 3. These results allow for NF permeate reuse instead of fresh caustic and for significant reduction of the wastewater contamination, which can result in savings of 1.5 M€ per year at the current prices for the largest Portuguese oil refinery. The capital investments needed for implementation of the required NF membrane system are less than 10% of those associated with the traditional wet air oxidation solution of the spent caustic problem. The operating costs are very similar, but can be less than half if reusing the NF concentrate in refinery pH control applications. The payback period was estimated to be 1.1 years. Overall, the pilot plant experimental results obtained and the process economic evaluation data indicate a very competitive solution through the proposed NF treatment process, which represents a highly promising alternative to conventional and existing spent caustic treatment units.

A presunção de inocência nas fases preliminares do processo penal

This study analyses the principle of presumption of innocence in the preliminary stages of the Portuguese criminal process, its procedural aspect related with the principle of in dubio pro reo and its material aspect concerning the treatment of the defendant during the proceedings. The consequences and manifestations of the principle of presumption of innocence are analysed in the decisions of the closing stages of the preliminary criminal procedure and the application of the principle of in dubio pro reo is analysed in the judgement of sufficiency of evidence for the procedure to continue. It addresses the question of circumstantial evidence, its particular relevance in economic and financial crime, highly organized crime, the grounds for the indictment in general and when the sufficiency of evidence criteria is based on that evidence. It analyses the scope of the principle of presumption of innocence in the application of coercive measures, with reference to the arrest, first interrogation of the accused under detention and reasons for the subsequent dispatch about the measures. The asset assurance measures of preventive seizure and the preventive seizure to ensure confiscation are analysed and principle of presumption of innocence is considered non applicable to those measures.

Operações de vigilância transfronteiras

This master dissertation is a small and humble contribution to a better assumption of the national position on the provisions of Article 40 of the Schengen Implementing Convention, particularly regarding authorities responsible for the implementation of border surveillance. And, above all, aims to be an asset to the strategic definition of this matter within the Public Security Police. To fulfill this aim, we tried to reconcile, against the almost non-existent bibliographic support frame, the professional experience of the several roles in the criminal area of Public Security Police and as a Group 7 National Expert (Mobile Organised Crime Groups) for EU Policy Cicle 2011-2013 – EMPACT Projects (European Platform Against Threats criminal Multidisciplinary) –, with the opinion conveyed by commanders, who perform management functions in the criminal structure of the Public Security Police or, not exercising, to be recognized with high merit in the criminal area.

An equity wealth preservation strategy: Following the macro trend

Financial crisis have happened in the past and will continue to do so in the future. In the most recent 2008 crisis, global equities (as measured by the MSCI ACWI index) lost a staggering 54.2% in USD, on the year. During those periods wealth preservation becomes at the top of most investor’s concerns. The purpose of this paper is to develop a strategy that protects the investment during bear markets and significant market corrections, generates capital appreciation, and that can support Millennium BCP’s Wealth Management Unit on their asset allocation procedures. This strategy extends the Dual Momentum approach introduced by Gary Antonacci (2014) in two ways. First, the investable set of securities in the equities space increases from two to four. Besides the US it will comprise the Japanese, European (excl. UK) and EM equity indices. Secondly, it adds a volatility filter as well as three indicators related to the business cycle and the state of the economy, which are relevant to decide on the strategy’s exposure to equities. Overall the results attest the resiliency of the strategy before, during and after historical financial crashes, as it drastically reduces the downside exposure and consistently outperforms the benchmark index by providing higher mean returns with lower variance.

Comparative analysis of Spanish Banks’ Standalone credit profile

The paper studies the relationship between four differently rated bank’s financial profile and their standalone credit rating issued by Moody’s. The comparative analysis shows an example that despite their pricing power and geographical coverage, larger banks do not necessarily have better credit ratings. Instead, business model and risk appetite seem to be the defining factors of banks’ vulnerability to shocks, such as the Spanish real estate crisis. The risk-return relationship is also identified in the banks’ fundamentals meaning that while expansionary strategy in riskier asset classes enhances margins, it also potentially distorts the credit risk profile.