Exploring the predictive power of Google searches over the US stock market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

An internal analysis of Amorim Turismo’s operations regarding food and beverage with a focus on operational efficiency and quality of service

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Drivers and barriers to value creation in mobile service delivery

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Service-oriented infrastructure to support the control, monitoring and management of a shop floor system

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Contributo para a validação da versão portuguesa do instrumento de avaliação VOICE (service users perceptions of impatient care, Views on Inpatient Care)

RESUMO: Nos últimos anos assistiu-se a um reposicionamento das pessoas portadoras de doença mental na sociedade, no sentido de viverem em pleno os seus direitos, sem restrições. Esta tendência acompanhou as transformações que se têm vivido na forma como os utentes dos serviços de saúde interagem com os mesmos e com os profissionais de saúde, de forma a permitir uma maior autonomização e responsabilização no que concerne ao tratamento da sua doença, a relação que estabelecem com o seu médico, e a participação na avaliação e monitorização da qualidade dos serviços. Mais recentemente, também no mundo científico, esta afirmação se fez sentir, com o surgimento de investigação liderada por utentes, no sentido de estudar de forma adequada questões que partem do seu ponto de vista, e que possibilitem a produção de conhecimento significativa no contexto das suas experiências. Com o presente trabalho pretende-se contribuir para a validação da versão portuguesa do VOICE (Service Users’ Perceptions of Inpatient Care, Views on Inpatient Care) (Evans et al., 2012), instrumento para a avaliação dos serviços de internamento de agudos em psiquiatria, construído a partir de um investigação liderado por utentes e partindo das suas perspectiva. O VOICE é constituído por 19 questões, agrupadas em sete domínios: admissão; cuidados e tratamento; medicação; equipa de técnicos do internamento; terapia e atividades; ambiente e diferenças. O presente estudo envolveu uma amostra de 85 utentes de um serviço de internamento de agudos de uma instituição psiquiátrica do Norte de Portugal. A versão portuguesa do VOICE apresentou boa aceitação por parte dos utentes e boas características psicométricas - a consistência interna foi alta (α = 0,87) e todos, exceto um item (item 6), apresentam elevadas correlações item-total (variando de 0,18 - item 6 a 0,71 - item 11; M = 0,54, DP = 0,15), sugerindo ser um instrumento útil na avaliação dos serviços de internamento de agudos. No futuro torna-se necessário alargar o estudo a outros contextos de internamento e envolvendo amostras mais alargadas.-------------- ABSTRACT: In recent years there has been a gradual process to help people with the experience of mental illness regaining their full rights. Following the advances in the understanding of mental health problems, and the use of medication to help patients overcome symptoms, service-users have become more autonomous and responsible in the way they deal with health professionals, and are now called to participate in assessing and monitoring mental health services and policies. In the context of these transformations we have assisted to the emergence of research led by service-users (in this case of psychiatric and mental health services) in order to emphasize their point of view, and to enable the production of significant knowledge resulting from their experiences, and perceptions. The present study aims to contribute to the dissemination of service-user led research, based on the adaptation and validation of the Portuguese version of the VOICE - Service Users' Perceptions Questionnaire, Views on Inpatient Care. (Evans et al., 2012). The VOICE is composed of 19 questions, grouped in seven domains: admissions, care and treatment, medication, team of technicians during hospitalization, therapy and activities, environment and diversity. The present study involved a sample of 85 inpatient of a psychiatric institution in Northern Portugal. The Portuguese version of the VOICE showed good psychometric properties and was well accepted by patients [high internal consistency (α = 0,87); and high correlation of each item, except item 6, with the total score (ranging from 0.18 on item 6 to 0.71 on item 11; average=0,54; SD=0,15), suggesting it to be a useful tool for assessing inpatient services. In the future there is a need to extend the study to other contexts and include larger samples.

Resilience of logistic service providers facing a port strike: a case study

The purpose of this thesis is to study the impact of a port strike on companies that perform as logistic service providers in a supply chain (SC), here denominated 3PL (third-party logistic providers). These companies are highly dependent on ports to perform their activity, since they provide international services. Consequently, a disruption in a port can seriously impair their business. A stevedores’ strike is one of the possible disruptions that can affect ports. This study aims to analyze the negative effects caused by this disruption, and what strategies 3PLs may implement in order to keep their performance levels stable and have a quick recovery time. Within this objective, the first step will be to establish a theoretical context about the maritime port’s sector and 3PLs in a SC context, to then expand the concept of a resilient SC, and finally to develop a theoretical framework in order to better contextualize the case study. Subsequently, the impact of a port strike will be quantified by using a case study comprising three companies, covering the areas of land and sea distribution and port operations. Information from primary sources was assembled in two phases: first via e-mail and, in a second phase, through a personal interview. The information from secondary sources was obtained through television news, internet and conferences, enabling its cross-analysis. Finally, by analyzing the collected data, it will be possible to draw conclusions about the measures carried out by each company to minimize the negative effects of the strike, thus contributing to a more resilient SC. As a conclusion, a stevedores’ strike will create a snow-ball of negative effects in the SC, degrading all relevant KPIs (key performance indicators) of the 3PLs under study. No mitigation and contingency strategies available proved really effective to reduce the negative effects of a port strike disruption.

Achieving better service level results, through improvements in procedures

This project aims to prepare Worten Empresas (WE) fulfilling the increasing market demand through process changings, focusing on the Portuguese market, particularly on internal B2B clients1. Several methods were used to measure the current service level provided - process mapping, resources assessment, benchmark and a survey. The results were then used to compare against service level actually desired by WE’s customer, and then to identify the performance gaps in response times and quality of the follow-up during the sales process. To bridge the identified gaps, both a set of recommendations and an implementation plan were suggested to improve and monitor customer experience. This study concluded that it is possible to fulfill the increasing level of demand and at the same time improve customer satisfaction by implementing changes at the operations level.

Teleoperation of a service robot using a mobile device

Teleoperation is a concept born with the rapid evolution of technology, with an intuitive meaning "operate at a distance." The first teleoperation system was created in the mid 1950s, which were handled chemicals. Remote controlled systems are present nowadays in various types of applications. This dissertation presents the development of a mobile application to perform the teleoperation of a mobile service robot. The application integrates a distributed surveillance (the result of a research project QREN) and led to the development of a communication interface between the robot (the result of another QREN project) and the vigilance system. It was necessary to specify a communication protocol between the two systems, which was implemented over a communication framework 0MQ (Zero Message Queue). For the testing, three prototype applications were developed before to perform the test on the robot.

The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

AGNI: an API for the control of automomous service robots

With the continuum growth of Internet connected devices, the scalability of the protocols used for communication between them is facing a new set of challenges. In robotics these communications protocols are an essential element, and must be able to accomplish with the desired communication. In a context of a multi-­‐‑agent platform, the main types of Internet communication protocols used in robotics, mission planning and task allocation problems will be revised. It will be defined how to represent a message and how to cope with their transport between devices in a distributed environment, reviewing all the layers of the messaging process. A review of the ROS platform is also presented with the intent of integrating the already existing communication protocols with the ServRobot, a mobile autonomous robot, and the DVA, a distributed autonomous surveillance system. This is done with the objective of assigning missions to ServRobot in a security context.

Context classification for service robots

This dissertation presents a solution for environment sensing using sensor fusion techniques and a context/environment classification of the surroundings in a service robot, so it could change his behavior according to the different rea-soning outputs. As an example, if a robot knows he is outdoors, in a field environment, there can be a sandy ground, in which it should slow down. Contrariwise in indoor environments, that situation is statistically unlikely to happen (sandy ground). This simple assumption denotes the importance of context-aware in automated guided vehicles.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

Methodological framework for detection of harmonisation breaking in service environments

As the complexity of markets and the dynamicity of systems evolve, the need for interoperable systems capable of strengthening enterprise communication effectiveness increases. This is particularly significant when it comes to collaborative enterprise networks, like manufacturing supply chains, where several companies work, communicate, and depend on each other, in order to achieve a specific goal. Once interoperability is achieved, that is once all network parties are able to communicate with and understand each other, organisations are able to exchange information along a stable environment that follows agreed laws. However, as markets adapt to new requirements and demands, an evolutionary behaviour is triggered giving space to interoperability problems, thus disrupting the sustainability of interoperability and raising the need to develop monitoring activities capable of detecting and preventing unexpected behaviour. This work seeks to contribute to the development of monitoring techniques for interoperable SOA-based enterprise networks. It focuses on the automatic detection of harmonisation breaking events during real-time communications, and strives to develop and propose a methodological approach to handle these disruptions with minimal or no human intervention, hence providing existing service-based networks with the ability to detect and promptly react to interoperability issues.

Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.