Future lending income and security value

I test the Duffie, Gârleanu, and Pedersen hypothesis that security prices incorporate expected future securities lending income. To determine whether institutional investors anticipate gains from future lending of securities, I examine their trading behavior around loan-fee increases. The evidence suggests that institutions buy shares in response to an increase in lending fees, and that this could explain the premium associated with high- lending-fee stocks. Expected future lending income affects stock prices, although the effect seems to be attenuated by the negative information that arises from short selling.

Cultura de segurança em proteção civil

This work aims to stress the concept of a security culture in the sense that each one of us is an emergency responder, the first one to respond, and the more prepared we are, with better training and awareness, the better we will perform, this applies even to the relationship between us and the Emergency Responders. All this will lead to a better probability of surviving an accident. If there is an accident, anywhere at any time, each one of us is alone. And the bigger the accident is the longer we stay alone. There is no firefighter, no policeman, no doctor, so it is very important to be competent, in other words, knowing how to react, wanting to react and being able to react. This is a basic requirement to understand the phenomenon, to know the consequences arising from the way we act and that we have to perform according to the situation: before, during and after it occurred. In brief, let’s not make resilience be just a word, let’s make it a concept that belongs to the higher definition of the Security Culture.

A wave of change: Labor market and social security impacts of the EU refugee inflow

The recent massive inflow of refugees to the European Union (EU) raises a number of unanswered questions on the economic impact of this phenomenon. To examine these questions, we constructed an overlapping-generations model that describes the evolution of the skill premium and of the welfare benefit level in relevant European countries, in the aftermath of an inflow of asylum-seekers. In our simulation, relative wages of skilled workers increase between 8% and 11% in the period of the inflow; their subsequent time path is dependent on the initial skill premium. The entry of migrants creates a fiscal surplus of about 8%, which can finance higher welfare benefits in the subsequent periods. These effects are weaker in a scenario where refugees do not fully integrate into the labor market.

The impact of credit conditions on market liquidity – a case for European stock markets

The recent financial crisis has drawn the attention of researchers and regulators to the importance of liquidity for stock market stability and efficiency. The ability of market-makers and investors to provide liquidity is constrained by the willingness of financial institutions to supply funding capital. This paper sheds light on the liquidity linkages between the Central Bank, Monetary Financial Institutions and market-makers as crucial elements to the well-functioning of markets. Results suggest the existence of causality between credit conditions and stock market liquidity for the Eurozone between 2003 and 2015. Similar evidence is found for the UK during the post-crisis period. Keywords: stock

Measuring spillover effects in Euro Area equity and bond markets

Since its inception, the Eurozone has experienced significant financial integration. However, with the recent turbulent period, the dynamics of this integration may have changed. This study analyses the volatility spillovers from the US and aggregate Eurozone markets into ten Euro Area national equity and bond markets, using a regime-switching model with shifting shock sensitivities. The evidence confirms an increased impact of shock spillover intensity after the 2008 crisis in the equity market and a decrease of the same parameters for the bond market. In both markets, the overall impact of the Eurozone is greater when compared to the U.S.

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Recensão: George Baker, “Late Criticism” in Canvases and Careers Today. Criticism and its Markets

Recensão de: George Baker, "'Late Criticism' in Canvases and Careers Today. Criticism and its Markets", Berlin: Sternberg Press, 2008

Ações encobertas

The global and increasingly technological society requires the States to adopt security measures that can maintain the balance between the freedom, on the one hand, and the security and the respect for fundamental rights of a democratic state, on the other. A State can only achieve this aim if it has an effective judicial system and in particular a criminal procedure adequate to the new criminogenic realities. In this context, the national legislator has adopted, following other international legal systems, special means of obtaining proof more stringent of rights. Within those special means are included the covert actions, that, being a means to use sparingly, is a key element to fight against violent and highly organized crime. Therefore, the undercover agent, voluntary by nature, develops a set of activities that enables the investigation to use other means of taking evidence and/or probationary diligences itself, with the purpose of providing sufficient proof to the case file. In this milieu, given the high risks involved during the investigation, as well as after its completion, the undercover agent can act upon fictitious identity. This measure can be maintained during the evidentiary phase of the trial. Similarly, given the latent threat that the undercover agent suffers by its inclusion in criminal organizations, as well as the need for his inclusion in future covert actions it is crucial that his participation as a witness in the trial is properly shielded. Thus, when the undercover agent provides, exceptionally, statements in the trial, he shall do so always through videoconference with voice and image distortion. This measure can guarantee the anonymity of the undercover agent and concomitantly, that the adversarial principle and the right of the accused to a fair trial is not prejudiced since, in those circumstances, the diligence will be supervised in its entirety (in the audience and with the undercover agent) by a judge.

Guarda prisional: força de segurança ou agente responsabilizador?

A permanently changing occidental society framework, simultaneously, to a world Globalization and a market liberalization, requires to know how important and which role the agents plays, in Estates representation, to guarantee their own intern security. Portugal is an example of that since has been integrated in European and world politics that allowed the borders opening, with all the negative consequences of that kind of measures. In way to struggle with those debilities emerge, in our Juridical Order, several security forces such as Prison Guards Corporation, whose contribute to intern security seems undefined and confuse, being urgent legislation in way to describe and clearly define their goals and functions. We begin with a brief history view to understand the evolution, focusing on the present moment, correlate several laws in way to clarify their juridical situation. Using a own critical sense, it draws attention to legislation lack problem in opposition to the conclusion that, Prison Guards Corporation is a security force with specialized expertise in matter and territory fields. Their activity occurs, generally, in penitentiaries where people see themselves without their freedom, legally determinated and confined to places as other individuals with deviant behaviors that deserve society refutation, establishing a separation period having rehabilitation as a goal – it is called general and special prevention. Penitentiaries specificities requires specially police force because penitentiaries are places where tensions are often, both between inmates and against employees, above all prison guards, the first to struggle inmates daily frustrations. In way that institutions achieve their purpose, it is necessary that citizens respect all the rules, although, to their efficacy is necessary to inflict punishment to those who did not respect the rules. Furthermore, it will be indispensable to act immediately in situations as impeding runaway helping, illegally standing in jail and to avoid violent acts against personal and patrimonial belongings. Juridical Order has a few security tools that are available to administration, in which is included coercive methods, that as damaging to citizens in whom they are use, are restricted, unavoidably, to inflexible control rules. Concluding, Prison Guards and Penitentiaries General Direction last goal is to give back recovered inmates to society, in a way to conduct their lives responsibly, without committing crimes.

A importância da Polícia Municipal na segurança

The challenge of this work is to assess the importance of the municipal police in improving the safety of citizens, if gauging from this reality through contributions from the Municipal Police Guimarães. The IV Constitutional Review in 1997, enabled the Portuguese municipalities creating administrative police bodies. These services, known as Municipal Police, have gradually come up in several municipalities. Currently the Municipal Police have their fundamental legal regulations of Law No. 19/2004 of 20 May, which, according to the Portuguese Constitution provides that these must be seen as municipal services, which act in a space territorially delimited, which corresponds to the municipality that each belongs. Under Article 237, paragraph 3, of the Constitution, the Municipal Police are municipal services, which shall cooperate in the maintenance of public order and protection of local communities, acting in cooperation with the security forces, public security functions. The safety concept has been taking an increasingly significant importance within the population. Is also no doubt say that, currently, insecurity affects all of society and is a major concern of law enforcement authorities. To find suitable answers we found that there are several studies on these subjects. In order to be able to make our contribution, text looks us on this subject, having had the support of the Municipal Police Guimarães, in the preparation of this work. Thus, based on a survey, they were sounded out, as privileged actors, agents of the Municipal Police Guimarães, in order to know their perceptions with regard to security issues faced in the context of security. We understand ask them to answer in particular the following questions: What are the most facilitators situations of crime? How important is the Municipal Police Guimarães in crime prevention? What are the strategies for prevention of incivilities? What other skills that can be conferred upon the Municipal Police? The results obtained allowed us to conclude that incivilities facilitate the occurrence of crimes and that the Municipal Police may have a more active role in the security of the population. If you were given other duties, in addition to that already have, the Municipal Police could reach another level of effectiveness. However we understand that any change to the tasks of this police need a serious and profound reflection, to find complementary alternatives with the security forces, which does not conflict with current assignments of any of the parties or with the interests of citizens.

A liberalização do mercado energético e o papel das entidades reguladoras

The liberalisation of the energy market goes back to the 1990s, when it was impelled by the European legislator. Since then, three legislative packages, temporarily successive, were approved. Those packages contained the measures to be implemented in order to deepen the internal energy market. Besides the opening up of several national markets to competition, the European legislator aimed the creation of a real internal energy market within the European Union. The unbundling regime was one of the most important steps with respect to the liberalisation process. The introduction of these rules ensured independence to the various market operators. A real and effective right of choice was granted to the consumers so they may choose their electricity and natural gas supplier. Therefore, the activity of comercialisation is subject to competition. However, some activities of the electricity’s and natural gas’ chain of value, namely the activities of transportation and distribution, were kept under regulation rules. Even though it may seem odd, the assignment of important competences and strong powers to a regulatory authority was essential in order to achieve the liberalisation process’ goals. Electricity and natural gas are essential public goods; therefore the market operators are legally bound to public service obligations, such as the security, the universality and the continuity of the supply. The performance of these obligations may become, in some cases, unprofitable for those operators. For such reason, the protection of the consumers’ rights shall only be properly defended if there is a regulatory authority that monitors the behaviour of the operators and sanctions the failure to comply with the public service obligations. Portugal, as a Member State of the European Union, transposed into the national legal order the European directives concerning the liberalisation process. This transposition has caused radical changes to the electricity and natural gas’ national markets. The Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços Energéticos also suffered various mutations in order to keep up with the regulatory demands regarding the liberalisation process.

How do global born companies ignite their internationalization and survive in international markets?

Over the last decades, the born global firms or the international new ventures (“INVs”) have assumed a growing role in international business, including in Portugal. The rise of this new type of multinational has challenged several theories concerning the development of multinational companies and the origin of companies’ competitive advantage. This qualitative, case-based research explores the most relevant traits shown by some Portuguese born-global firms. More concretely, the aim of this work is to compare some Portuguese international new ventures in order to understand the role of leadership, culture and strategy in their rapid internationalization and the source of their lasting competitive advantage. It was noticed that these firms’ lasting competitive advantage results from a singular combination of resources and dynamic capabilities that evolves over time. Moreover, it was found that these firms’ foreign subsidiaries and local networks may be essential to enhance the firms competitive advantage as it provides each firm a distinctive source of knowledge and capabilities. As a consequence, the effective assimilation of such resources and capabilities in these firms’ may become crucial for their lasting success. In addition, the leadership, strategy and culture in these firms seem to be quite aligned and form a quite virtuous cycle that contributed to the firms rapid internationalization and for the way the firms developed their own resources and dynamic capabilities and adapted to external environment.