Utilidade da tomografia computorizada cardíaca na avaliação da doença coronária

RESUMO: Apesar de toda a evolução farmacológica e de meios complementares de diagnóstico possível nos últimos anos, o enfarte agudo do miocárdio e a morte súbita continuam a ser a primeira manifestação da aterosclerose coronária para muitos doentes, que estavam previamente assintomáticos. Os exames complementares de diagnóstico tradicionalmente usados para avaliar a presença de doença coronária, baseiam‐se na documentação de isquémia do miocárdio e por este motivo a sua positividade depende da presença de lesões coronárias obstrutivas. As lesões coronárias não obstrutivas estão também frequentemente implicadas no desenvolvimento de eventos coronários. Apesar de o risco absoluto de instabilização por placa ser superior para as lesões mais volumosas e obstrutivas, estas são menos prevalentes do que as placas não obstrutivas e assim, por questões probabilísticas, os eventos coronários resultam com frequência da rotura ou erosão destas últimas. Estudos recentes de imagiologia intracoronária avançada forneceram evidência de que apesar de ser possível identificar algumas características de vulnerabilidade em placas associadas ao desenvolvimento subsequente de eventos coronários, a sua sensibilidade e especificidade é muito baixa para aplicação clínica. Mais do que o risco associado a uma placa em particular, para o doente poderá ser mais importante o risco global da sua árvore coronária reflexo da soma das probabilidade de todas as suas lesões, sendo que quanto maior for a carga aterosclerótica maior será o seu risco. A angio TC cardíaca é a mais recente técnica de imagem não invasiva para o estudo da doença coronária e surgiu nos últimos anos fruto de importantes avanços na tecnologia de TC multidetectores. Estes avanços, permitiram uma progressiva melhoria da resolução espacial e temporal, contribuindo para a melhoria da qualidade dos exames, bem como uma significativa redução da dose de radiação. A par desta evolução tecnológica, foi aumentando a experiência e gerada mais evidência científica, tornando a angio TC cardíaca cada vez mais robusta na avaliação da doença coronária e aumentando a sua aplicabilidade clínica. Mais recentemente apareceram vários trabalhos que validaram o seu valor prognóstico, assinalando a sua chegada à idade adulta. Para além de permitir excluir a presença de doença coronária e de identificar a presença de estenoses significativas, a angio TC cardíaca permite identificar a presença de lesões coronárias não obstrutivas, característica impar desta técnica como modalidade de imagem não invasiva. Ao permitir identificar a totalidade das lesões ateroscleróticas (obstrutivas e não obstrutivas), a 18 angio TC cardíaca poderá fornecer uma quantificação da carga aterosclerótica coronária total, podendo essa identificação ser útil na estratificação dos indivíduos em risco de eventos coronários. Neste trabalho foi possível identificar preditores demográficos e clínicos de uma elevada carga aterosclerótica coronária documentada pela angioTC cardíaca, embora o seu poder discriminativo tenha sido relativamente modesto, mesmo quando agrupados em scores clínicos. Entre os vários scores, o desempenho foi um pouco melhor para o score de risco cardiovascular Heartscore. Estas limitações espelham a dificuldade de prever apenas com base em variáveis clínicas, mesmo quando agrupadas em scores, a presença e extensão da doença coronária. Um dos factores de risco clássicos, a obesidade, parece ter uma relação paradoxal com a carga aterosclerótica, o que pode justificar algumas limitações da estimativa com base em scores clínicos. A diabetes mellitus, por outro lado, foi um dos preditores clínicos mais importantes, funcionando como modelo de doença coronária mais avançada, útil para avaliar o desempenho dos diferentes índices de carga aterosclerótica. Dada a elevada prevalência de placas ateroscleróticas identificáveis por angio TC na árvore coronária, torna-‐se importante desenvolver ferramentas que permitam quantificar a carga aterosclerótica e assim identificar os indivíduos que poderão eventualmente beneficiar de medidas de prevenção mais intensivas. Com este objectivo, foi desenvolvido um índice de carga aterosclerótica que reúne a informação global acerca da localização, do grau de estenose e do tipo de placa, obtida pela angio TC cardíaca, o CT--‐LeSc. Este score poderá vir a ser uma ferramenta útil para quantificação da carga aterosclerótica coronária, sendo de esperar que possa traduzir a informação prognóstica da angio TC cardíaca. Por fim, o conceito de árvore coronária vulnerável poderá ser mais importante do que o da placa vulnerável e a sua identificação pela angio TC cardíaca poderá ser importante numa estratégia de prevenção mais avançada. Esta poderá permitir personalizar as medidas de prevenção primária, doseando melhor a sua intensidade em função da carga aterosclerótica, podendo esta vir a constituir uma das mais importantes indicações da angio TC cardíaca no futuro.---------------- ABSTRACT Despite the significant advances made possible in recent years in the field of pharmacology and diagnostic tests, acute yocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death remain the first manifestation of coronary atherosclerosis in a significant proportion of patients, as many were previously asymptomatic. Traditionally, the diagnostic exams employed for the evaluation of possible coronary artery disease are based on the documentation of myocardial ischemia and, in this way, they are linked to the presence of obstructive coronary stenosis. Nonobstructive coronary lesions are also frequently involved in the development of coronary events. Although the absolute risk of becoming unstable per plaque is higher for more obstructive and higher burden plaques, these are much less frequent than nonobstructive lesions and therefore, in terms of probability for the patient, coronary events are often the result of rupture or erosion of the latter ones. Recent advanced intracoronary imaging studies provided evidence that although it is possible to identify some features of vulnerability in plaques associated with subsequente development of coronary events, the sensitivity and sensibility are very limited for clinical application. More important than the individual risk associated with a certain plaque, for the patient it might be more important the global risk of the total coronary tree, as reflected by the sum of the diferent probabilities of all the lesions, since the higher the coronary Atherosclerotic burden, the higher the risk for the patient. Cardiac CT or Coronary CT angiography is still a young modality. It is the most recente noninvasive imaging modality in the study of coronary artery disease and its development was possible due to important advances in multidetector CT technology. These allowed significant improvements in temporal and spatial resolution, leading to better image quality and also some impressive reductions in radiation dose. At the same time, the increasing experience with this technique lead to a growing body of scientific evidence, making cardiac CT a robust imaging tool for the evaluation of coronary artery disease and increased its clinical indications. More recently, several publications documented its prognostic value, marking the transition of cardiac CT to adulthood. Besides being able to exclude the presence of coronary artery disease and of obstructive lesions, Cardiac CT allows also the identification of nonobstructive lesions, making this a unique tool in the field of noninvasive imaging modalities. By evaluating both obstructive and nonobstructive lesions, cardiac CT can provide for the quantification of total coronary atherosclerotic burden, and this can be useful to stratify the risk of future coronary events. In the present work, it was possible to identify significant demographic and clinical predictors of a high coronary atherosclerotic burden as assessed by cardiac CT, but with modest odds ratios, even when the individual variables were gathered in clinical scores. Among these diferent clinical scores, the performance was better for the Heartscore, a cardiovascular risk score. This modest performance underline the limitations on predicting the presence and severity of coronary disease based only on clinical variables, even when optimized together in risk scores, One of the classical risk factors, obesity, had in fact a paradoxical relation with coronary atherosclerotic burden and might explain some of the limitations of the clinical models. On the opposite, diabetes mellitus was one of the strongest clinical predictors, and was considered to be a model of more advanced coronary disease, useful to evaluate the performance of diferent plaque burden scores. In face of the high prevalence of plaques that can be identified in the coronary tree of patients undergoing cardiac CT, it is of utmost importance to develop tools to quantify the total coronary atherosclerotic burden providing the identification of patients that could eventually benefit from more intensive preventive measures. This was the rational for the development of a coronary atherosclerotic burden score, reflecting the comprehensive information on localization, degree of stenosis and plaque composition provided by cardiac CT – the CT-LeSc. This score may become a useful tool to quantify total coronary atherosclerotic burden and is expected to convey the strong prognostic information of cardiac CT. Lastly, the concept of vulnerable coronary tree might become more important than the concept of the vulnerable plaque and his assessment by cardiac CT Might become important in a more advance primary prevention strategy. This Could lead to a more custom-made primary prevention, tailoring the intensity of preventive measures to the atherosclerotic burden and this might become one of the most important indications of cardiac CT In the near future.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Risk parity: True versus naive approach

This paper studies the performance of two different Risk Parity strategies, one from Maillard (2008) and a “naïve” that was already used by market practitioners, against traditional strategies. The tests will compare different regions (US, UK, Germany and Japan) since 1991 to 2013, and will use different ways of volatility. The main findings are that Risk Parity outperforms any traditional strategy, and the “true” (by Maillard) has considerable better results than the “naïve” when using historical volatility, while using EWMA there are significant differences.

Brazilian equity risk premium analysis: A macroeconomic approach

Double Degree Masters in Economics Program from Insper and NOVA School of Business and Economics

O emprego de uma força de segurança de natureza militar nas missões de paz

The conflicts currently taking place around the world demand that the international intervention fits the intensity and extent of the threat. This is particularly important in post-conflict scenarios, leading to a greater participation of the Security Forces in those scenarios, in order to foster lasting peace, enforce the order and improve law enforcement services in those regions. The transition from armed conflict to peacekeeping may entail high risk situations and greater instability periods, so-called “intermediate situations”. Accordingly, in the face of persisting high volatility, a robust response is still required post-conflict. Therefore, it is appropriate to deploy Security Forces with military nature and status, the gendarmeries, which have training and response capabilities similar to Armed Forces in peacekeeping operations. Their double facet as police and military forces enables them to perform police duties in high risk and unsafe environments. In light of these features, the Portuguese gendarmerie, Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR), is able to carry out tasks in these scenarios, which it has been doing through individual operatives or larger units. This dissertation focuses on the use of Security Forces of military nature in peacekeeping missions, in particular the Portuguese GNR, relying mostly on the inductive approach and using literature research, document analysis, interviews and statistics. After a brief description of international peacekeeping missions, we describe the contribution of Security Forces of a military nature in such operations. Then we introduce and analyse the GNR, focusing on its deployment in different kinds of peacekeeping operations, from its first participation in 1995 until today. We also report some reactions to the performance of GNR. Finally, we discuss whether there is indeed a unique role for this type of forces in international peacekeeping missions.

Market risk charge of the trading book: a comparison of the Basel II and Basel III

This paper aims to investigate if the market capital charge of the trading book increased in Basel III compared to Basel II. I showed that the capital charge rises by 232% and 182% under the standardized and internal model, respectively. The varying liquidity horizons, the calibration to a stress period, the introduction of credit spread risk, the restrictions on correlations across risk categories and the incremental default charge boost Basel III requirements. Nevertheless, the impact of Expected shortfall at 97.5% is low and long term shocks decrease the charge. The standardized approach presents advantages and disadvantages relative to internal models.

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Modeling and forecasting value-at-risk for the Portuguese stock market

The aim of this work project is to find a model that is able to accurately forecast the daily Value-at-Risk for PSI-20 Index, independently of the market conditions, in order to expand empirical literature for the Portuguese stock market. Hence, two subsamples, representing more and less volatile periods, were modeled through unconditional and conditional volatility models (because it is what drives returns). All models were evaluated through Kupiec’s and Christoffersen’s tests, by comparing forecasts with actual results. Using an out-of-sample of 204 observations, it was found that a GARCH(1,1) is an accurate model for our purposes.

Systemic risk for financial institutions in UK

Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) is an approach used to measure the systemic risk financial institutions face. It estimates how significantly systemic events (poor market performance, out of 1.6 times Standard Deviation borders) are expected to affect market capitalization of a particular firm. The concept was developed in the late 2000s and is widely used for cross-country comparisons of financial firms. For the purposes of generalization of this technique it is often used with market data containing non-domestic currencies for some financial firms. That may lead to results having currency noise in them as it is shown for 77 UK financial firms in our analysis between 2001 and 2014.

Enterprise risk management adoption: An empirical investigation of its effects on firm performance

Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is gaining relevance among financial and non-financial companies but its benefits still are uncertain. This paper aims at investigating the relationship between ERM adoption and firm performance based on a sample of 1130 non-financial companies belonging to the STOXX® index. A content analysis of individual accounts is performed to distinguish adopters, and a regression analysis explores the effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, proxied by Tobin’s Q. The findings suggest that there is a statistical significant positive effect of ERM adoption on firm performance, meaning that firms are benefiting from the implementation of this process.

Social impact bond feasibility study: Children and youth at risk: the Projecto Família program

Social impact bonds are an increasingly popular method of unlocking typical social investment barriers and fuelling social innovation. This feasibility study aims to understand whether a social impact bond is a suitable tool for decreasing unnecessary foster care placements in Portugal, which have been proven to cause significant social and financial damage to societies. This research question is answered through a financial model which combines the costs of this social problem with Projecto Família’s intervention model, a leading intensive family preservation service. Main findings suggest using SIB funding for a 5-year project with the goal of generating the proper impact measurement metrics lacking in the field.

Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries

Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.

Contributo para o estudo dos efeitos da passagem à situação (e idade) de reforma na frequência das principais doenças crónicas em Portugal

RESUMO - Introdução: A transição para a reforma é um acontecimento que pode acarretar alterações suscetíveis de afetar o estado de saúde. Vários estudos têm investigado os efeitos da reforma no estado de saúde, embora poucos o tenham investigado, especificamente, nas doenças crónicas. As recentes políticas de aumento da idade de reforma, assim como a ausência de consenso sobre os efeitos da reforma na saúde, atribuem-lhe ainda maior importância. Constituem objetivos do presente estudo quantificar a associação entre a Passagem à situação de reforma (e idade de reforma) e a frequência de cada uma das principais doenças crónicas, no sentido dos efeitos da reforma nestes indicadores de saúde (doença respiratória crónica, diabetes, doença cardiovascular, AVC, depressão e cancro). Material e Métodos: Desenvolveu-se um estudo transversal, no qual foram analisados os dados provenientes das amostras representativas da população portuguesa SHARE 2011 e ECOS 2013. As associações foram quantificadas através do cálculo do Odds ratio por Regressão Logística Binária com avaliação do confundimento e modificação de efeito. As variáveis de doença crónica foram medidas por auto-reporte. Foram considerados os reformados que se encontrassem em processo de reforma (ou seja, reformados há 5 anos ou menos) e que não se tivessem reformado por doença. Resultados: A reforma não se encontrou significativamente associada a nenhuma das doenças crónicas consideradas, excetuando-se: i) o cancro (na amostra ECOS), para o qual foi fator protetor; ii) e a doença cardiovascular (na amostra SHARE), para a qual teve um efeito prejudicial, mas apenas em não hipertensos. A reforma em idade antecipada pareceu encontrar-se associada a um pior estado de saúde, relativamente à reforma em idade legal (ou após). Tal observou-se no Cancro (nas amostras ECOS e SHARE), na Diabetes (na amostra SHARE), e no AVC em pessoas sem Doença Cardiovascular (na amostra SHARE). Pelo contrário, em pessoas com Doença Cardiovascular a reforma antecipada pareceu constituir um fator protetor. Discussão e conclusões: As diferenças observadas nos resultados entre amostras poderão, entre outros, atribuir-se às diferentes populações em estudo, dimensões amostrais e desenhos de amostragem. Os resultados obtidos não são muito diferentes dos que têm sido descritos na bibliografia, ainda que haja um número reduzido de estudos sobre esta matéria. Indicam que, eventualmente, as recentes alterações de aumento da idade de reforma poderão expandir o grupo de pessoas que se reformam antecipadamente, podendo resultar, eventualmente, num aumento da prevalência de doenças crónicas na população portuguesa. Os mecanismos através dos quais a reforma poderá influenciar a ocorrência de doenças crónicas permanecem por explicar, embora os seus principais fatores de risco pareçam representar importantes modificadores de efeito.