Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

This paper offers a new approach to estimating time-varying covariance matrices in the framework of the diagonal-vech version of the multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. Our method is numerically feasible for large-scale problems, produces positive semidefinite conditional covariance matrices, and does not impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empirical application in the context of international stock markets, comparing the nev^ estimator with a number of existing ones.

The effectiveness of the “Processo Especial de Revitalização” as an instrument of corporate restructuring in the context of the current economic crisis

This work project intends to evaluate the effectiveness of the Portuguese Government’s strategy to promote the orderly deleveraging of the corporate sector in the context of the current economic crisis. The recommendations of the Troika and the commitments assumed under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Government in 2011 required the creation of formal processes to avoid disorderly deleveraging. Conclusions and recommendations were drawn based on past experiences of large-scale corporate restructuring strategies in other countries and on the analysis of financial and statistical data on companies applying for “Programa Especial de Revitalização”.

Inovcity- Structure of trials evaluation

In 2007, the UK government commissioned the Energy Demand Research Project to conduct a large scale experiment of smart metering technologies to test the impacts from many different forms of feedback to residential consumers. A full evaluation of the results was completed in 2011. In Portugal, EDP is also conducting smart meter trials in a project called InovCity in the city of Évora whose results will be evaluated during 2012. In this work, the case of Great Britain is studied as a reference on how an evaluation of trial results should be conducted. I also discuss potential limitations of the experiments, implications for national roll-out decisions, and finally draw some lessons that can be applied to the Portuguese case.

Introducing mapping standards in the quality assessment of buildings extracted from very high resolution satellite imagery

Many municipal activities require updated large-scale maps that include both topographic and thematic information. For this purpose, the efficient use of very high spatial resolution (VHR) satellite imagery suggests the development of approaches that enable a timely discrimination, counting and delineation of urban elements according to legal technical specifications and quality standards. Therefore, the nature of this data source and expanding range of applications calls for objective methods and quantitative metrics to assess the quality of the extracted information which go beyond traditional thematic accuracy alone. The present work concerns the development and testing of a new approach for using technical mapping standards in the quality assessment of buildings automatically extracted from VHR satellite imagery. Feature extraction software was employed to map buildings present in a pansharpened QuickBird image of Lisbon. Quality assessment was exhaustive and involved comparisons of extracted features against a reference data set, introducing cartographic constraints from scales 1:1000, 1:5000, and 1:10,000. The spatial data quality elements subject to evaluation were: thematic (attribute) accuracy, completeness, and geometric quality assessed based on planimetric deviation from the reference map. Tests were developed and metrics analyzed considering thresholds and standards for the large mapping scales most frequently used by municipalities. Results show that values for completeness varied with mapping scales and were only slightly superior for scale 1:10,000. Concerning the geometric quality, a large percentage of extracted features met the strict topographic standards of planimetric deviation for scale 1:10,000, while no buildings were compliant with the specification for scale 1:1000.

Comuns: An Open-Data Provider, Explorer and Analytic Toolbox Based on FOSS

Contém resumo

Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.

Custos indirectos associados à obesidade em Portugal

RESUMO - A obesidade constitui um importante problema de saúde pública com consequências económicas de grande dimensão. Os obesos têm um risco acrescido de contrair doenças e de sofrer morte prematura devido a problemas como a diabetes, hipertensão arterial, AVC, insuficiência cardíaca e algumas neoplasias malignas. O presente estudo tem como objectivo estimar o custo económico indirecto (valor da produção perdida) associado à obesidade em Portugal no ano de 2002. O estudo adopta uma abordagem tipo custos da doença baseada na prevalência. Os dados são retirados do Inquérito Nacional de Saúde e estatísticas de rotina publicadas pelo INE e por outros organismos oficiais. Consideram-se como obesas pessoas com índice de massa corporal (IMC) ≥ 30 kg/m2 e estabelecem-se como limites etários para participação em actividades económicas produtivas as idades compreendidas entre os 15 e os 64 anos. A estratégia de imputação de custos ao factor de risco obesidade caracteriza- se por estimar, para a população portuguesa, as proporções de doença e morte prematura atribuíveis à obesidade e em multiplicar as estimativas populacionais encontradas pelo valor da produtividade económica potencial das pessoas afectadas. O custo indirecto total da obesidade em Portugal no ano de 2002 foi estimado em 199,8 milhões de euros. A mortalidade contribuiu com 58,4% deste valor (117 milhões de euros) e a morbilidade com 41,6% (83 milhões de euros). Os custos da morbilidade advêm de mais de 1,6 milhões de dias de incapacidade anuais, principalmente por faltas ao trabalho associadas a doenças do sistema circulatório e diabetes tipo II. Os custos da mortalidade são o resultado de 18 733 potenciais anos de vida activa perdidos, numa razão de 3 mortes masculinas por cada morte feminina. Os resultados indicam que a obesidade acarreta consideráveis perdas económicas para o país. Comparando os resultados com um estudo complementar que calculou os custos directos (em cuidados de saúde) da obesidade, verifica-se que a componente indirecta representa 40,2% do total dos custos da obesidade. A implementação de estratégias que prevenissem ou reduzissem a incidência e prevalência de obesidade em Portugal poderia gerar ganhos de produtividade elevados. Para conhecer a dimensão destes ganhos é necessária mais investigação sobre os benefícios clínicos e relação custo-efectividade de estratégias para a redução da obesidade.

On project finance and the first road concession in Portugal

In broad sense, Project Financing1 as a mean of financing large scale infrastructural projects worldwide has had a steady growth in popularity for the last 20 years. This growth has been relatively unscathed from most economic cycles. However in the wake of the 2007 systemic Financial Crisis, Project Financing was also in trouble. The liquidity freeze and credit crunch that ensued affected all parties involved. Traditional Lenders, of this type of financial instrument, locked-in long-term contractual obligations, were severely hit with scarcity of funding compounded by rapidly increasing cost of funding. All the while, Banks were “rescued” by the concerted actions of Central Banks and other Multi-Lateral Agencies around the world but at the same time “stressed” by upcoming regulatory effort (Basel Committee). This impact resulted in specific changes to this type of long-term financing. Changes such as Commercial Banks’ increased risk aversion; pricing increase and maturities decrease of credit facilities; enforcement of Market Disruption Event clauses; partial responsibility for project risk by Multilateral Agencies; and adoption of utility-like availability payments in other industrial sectors such as transportation and even social infrastructure. To the extent possible, this report is then divided in three parts. First, it begins with a more instructional part, touching academic literature (theory) and giving the Banks perspective (practice), but mostly as an overview of Project Finance for awareness’ sake. The renowned Harvard Business School professor – Benjamin Esty, states2 that Project Finance is a “relatively unexplored territory for both empirical and theoretical research” which means that academic research efforts are lagging the practice of Project Finance. Second, the report presents a practical case regarding the first Road Concession in Portugal in 1998 ending with the lessons learned 10 years after Financial Close. Lastly, the report concludes with the analysis of the current trends and changes to the industry post Financial Crisis of the late 2000’s. To achieve this I’ll reference relevant papers, books on the subject, online articles and my own experience in the Project Finance Department at a major Portuguese Investment Bank. Regarding the latter, with the signing of a confidentiality agreement, I’m duly omitting sensitive and proprietary bank information.

Welle tecnologia laser internationalization analysis US market

Welle Laser is a Brazilian company that manufactures marking and engraving machines mainly for large-scale industry segments providing solutions that help increase productivity. Welle laser has 60% market share in Brazil and decided to go internationally in 2015, mainly to increase revenues and diversify business risks. Welle opened an office in Switzerland and celebrated a contract with a Mexican company to distribute their machines in Mexico. The next step for Welle is expanding its operation to USA. In my project I accessed the viability and reasons to enter the US market, the region where Welle should start its operation, and the best entry mode strategy.