While the crisis proceeds: A world redistribution of economic power?

The crisis has drawn attention to the fact that not only emerging powers but other regions of the world as well may be offering different development models and may constitute into alternative, in some dimensions more positive agents, in the conduct of the present stage of globalisation. Notwithstanding, the traditional western powers have not lost a large amount of control of the world economy. And the crisis proceeds, reallocating world power as in a Hobbesian anarchy. It is difficult to foresee smooth developments in the near future. On the contrary, multilateralism seems to be losing ground to unilateral action or bilateral arrangements. More or less disguised currency wars may lead to serious disequilibria, and turf wars may become more frequent, with motives ranging from securing captive markets to control of specific commodities and energy goods, or targeted regulatory frameworks. As economic policy becomes even more involved with defence and security affairs, the feedbacks from each side to the other seem likely to keep dissent and animosity high, rather than contributing to peaceful and constructive approaches. A more trouble-prone world may be easily expected.

Industrial symbiosis potential of the Sines oil refinery – environmental and economic evaluation

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente – Perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

Desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde : 1987-2006 : estudo com base nos inquéritos nacionais de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução: Apesar do investimento para garantir universalidade nos cuidados de saúde, estudos em vários países mostram o aumento das desigualdades socioeconómicas em saúde. Este estudo analisa estas desigualdades e a sua evolução em Portugal entre 1987 e 2006. Metodologia: Utilizou-se os dados dos quatro Inquéritos Nacionais de Saúde (INS) elaborados até hoje excluindo as pessoas com menos de 35 anos (INS87 – 12126 casos; INS95- 15795 casos; INS98/9- 11726 casos; INS 05/6- 11318 casos). Foram analisados cinco indicadores de saúde (hipertensão, diabetes, asma, bronquite e má saúde autoreportada). O estatuto socioeconómico foi medido pela educação e rendimento. As diferenças entre escalões mediram-se pelos Odds Ratio (OR) obtidos através de regressões logísticas multivariadas. As variáveis de ajustamento utilizadas foram: idade, tabagismo, obesidade e possuir um seguro de saúde. Os resultados foram analisados separadamente por sexo. Resultados: Para todos os indicadores e inquéritos observou-se uma prevalência inferior nos grupos de educação e rendimento mais elevados (OR entre 0,155 e 0,877). No entanto, as desigualdades não foram significativas para o rendimento no caso da hipertensão, diabetes e bronquite, no sexo masculino e em todos os inquéritos. Na educação verifica-se uma diminuição das desigualdades ao longo do tempo na hipertensão, diabetes e Má Saúde, no sexo masculino; no caso do rendimento observa-se o mesmo para a diabetes, asma e Má saúde, no sexo feminino. Discussão: Confirma-se a existência de desigualdades socioeconómicas no estado de saúde favorecendo os escalões mais elevados. A diminuição das desigualdades na maioria dos indicadores analisados contraria a evidência recente.

Avaliação económica da vacinação contra o vírus do papiloma humano 16 e 18 (CERVARIX®) : análise de custo-utilidade e custo-efetividade em mulheres dos 26 aos 55 anos em Portugal

RESUMO - O cancro do colo útero representa um importante problema de saúde pública em Portugal: é o terceiro cancro mais frequente nas mulheres entre os 15 e os 44 anos, originando a morte de 346 mulheres anualmente. Contudo, esta patologia é altamente evitável, nomeadamente, através da imunização contra a infeção HPV, que é a causa necessária para o desenvolvimento do cancro. A elevada prevalência da infeção em mulheres mais velhas sugere que a vacinação poderá ser uma estratégia custo-efetiva mesmo numa faixa etária superior. Para que seja racionalmente ponderada a comparticipação da vacina nestas mulheres é necessária a realização de um estudo fármaco-económico que comprove o custo-efetividade desta intervenção, já que o seu financiamento atual prevê apenas as mulheres não abrangidas pelo Programa Nacional de Vacinação, dos 18 aos 25 anos. Os objetivos do trabalho são realizar uma revisão da literatura sobre estudos de avaliação económica relativos à prevenção do CCU e avaliar a relação de custo-efetividade de vacinar mulheres contra o HPV entre os 26 e os 55 anos em comparação com a prática clínica corrente, em Portugal. É utilizado o Modelo Global Cervarix® e realiza-se uma análise de custo-utilidade e de custo-efetividade. Os resultados demonstraram que a vacinação em mulheres dos 26 aos 45 anos poderá ser uma opção custo-efetiva, permitindo um aumento de anos de vida, uma diminuição dos casos e mortes por CCU e um incremento de QALYs. O RCEI variou entre 7.914€/QALY e 29.049€/QALY com a vacinação aos 26 e aos 45 anos, respetivamente, para a alternativa de vacinação mais rastreio versus a situação atual de rastreio organizado e oportunístico, em Portugal.

Valuation of marine and coastal ecosystems: The role of ecological-economic modeling

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s

This paper assesses empirically the effect of oil price shocks on Portuguese aggregate economic activity, industrial production and price level. We take the usual multivariate VAR methodology to investigate the magnitude and stability of this relationship. In doing so, we follow the approach presented in the recent literature and adopt different oil price specifications. We conclude that, as for most industrialized countries, the nature of this relationship changed in the mid-1980s. Furthermore, we show that the main Portuguese macroeconomic variables have become progressively less responsive to oil shocks and the adjustment towards equilibrium has become increasingly faster.

Chinese expatriates’ adjustment process in Portugal: On the road to Guanxi replication

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of the economic crisis on the quality of health services

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Assessing the efficacy of the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) training for non-specialized health workers in Ethiopia

RESUMO: A OMS lançou em 2008, o Programa de Acção do Gap em Saúde Mental (mhGAP) para suprir a falta de cuidados, especialmente em países de rendimento baixo e médio, para as pessoas que sofrem de perturbações mentais, neurológicas e de uso de substâncias (MNS). Um componente crucial do mhGAP é representado pelo esforço no sentido da integração da saúde mental nos cuidados de saúde primários. Na Etiópia, o mhGAP foi monitorizado durante 3 anos, graças a um projeto de demonstração implementado em clínicas selecionadas em quatro regiões do país. A fase de demonstração de mhGAP na Etiópia traduziu-se principalmente na formação de profissionais de saúde não especializados, fornecendo-lhes orientação e supervisão apoiada para a utilização de medicamentos psicotrópicos essenciais e na coordenação com o Ministério Etíope Federal da Saúde, Hospital Amanuel de Saúde Mental e as Secretarias Regionais de Saúde ( RHBs ). O presente trabalho investigou a eficácia do pacote de formação mhGAP através de uma análise das pontuações dos participantes no pré- e pós-testes. A análise estatística mostrou - com uma exceção - que a melhoria dos formandos é estatisticamente significativa, o que sugere que os conhecimentos dos participantes é melhorada na fase de pós-teste. A eficácia do pacote de formação mhGAP para profissionais de saúde não especializados é uma evidência promissora de que os mesmos podem ser treinados com sucesso para realizar um pacote básico de intervenções para a prestação de cuidados e tratamento para pessoas com perturbações mentais, neurológicas e de uso de substâncias. Este trabalho destaca, também, várias limitações não apenas inerentes ao próprio projecto de investigação tais como o número limitado de respostas que foram analisadas e a falta de dados de uma das quatro regiões onde mhGAP foi testado na Etiópia. As principais limitações decorrem de facto da abordagem global limitar as intervenções de saúde mental ao programa de formação e supervisão dos trabalhadores de cuidados de saúde primários . Este processo só será bem sucedido se, juntamente com outras intervenções - que vão desde o desenvolvimento de currículos para o desenvolvimento de uma legislação de saúde mental -, fôr incluído numa estratégia mais abrangente para a reforma da saúde mental e desafiar o status quo.-----------ABSTRACT:In 2008, WHO launched the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) to address the lack of care, especially in low- and middle- income countries, for people living with mental, neurological and substance use (MNS) disorders. A crucial component of mhGAP is represented by the endeavor towards integration of mental health into primary health care. In Ethiopia, mhGAP has been piloted for 3 years thanks to a demonstration project implemented in selected clinics in 4 regions of the country. The demonstration phase of mhGAP in Ethiopia has mainly translated into training of non-specialized health workers, providing them with mentorship and supportive supervision, availing essential psychotropic medications and coordinating with the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health, Amanuel Mental Health Hospital and the Regional Health Bureaus (RHBs). The present paper investigated the efficacy of the mhGAP training package through an analysis of the participants’ scores at pre-test and post-test. The statistical analysis showed - with one exception - that the improvement of trainees is statistically significant, therefore suggesting that the knowledge of participants is improved in the post-test phase. The efficacy of the mhGAP training package on non-specialized health workers is promising evidence that non-specialized health-care providers can be successfully trained to deliver a basic package of interventions for providing care and treatment for people with mental, neurological and substance use disorders. However, this paper also highlights several limitations, which are not only inherent to the research itself, such as the limited number of scores that was analyzed, or the lack of data from one of the four regions where mhGAP has been piloted in Ethiopia; major limitations occur in fact in the overall approach of confining mental health interventions to training and supervising primary health care workers. This process will only be successful if coupled with other interventions – ranging from curricula development to development of a mental health legislation - and if it is included in a more comprehensive strategy to reform mental health and challenge the status quo.

Brotherly love and filial obedience: the commemorative programme of the Avis princes at Santa Maria da Vitória, Batalha

This dissertation focuses on a rare 15th century commemorative programme that has thus far received little scholarly attention: the collective monument erected in the Founder’s Chapel, at the Monastery of Santa Maria da Vitória, Batalha, to house the remains of four Avis princes, members of what would become known as ‘the Illustrious Generation’. A patron is proposed for the commission of this erudite monument - the princes’ eldest brother, king Duarte I - arguing its integration into a broader propaganda programme to glorify the memory of the Avis dynasty founder, king João I. The dissertation then proceeds to discuss various highly innovative features of the monument, such as its pseudo-architectural character, its use of sophisticated heraldry and personal badges, the apparent absence of religious iconography on the tombs and, importantly, the collective nature of the programme, key to its interpretation. Using a semiotic approach, a discussion is also offered on the way the various formal, iconographic and conceptual novelties of the princes’ monument impacted on the 15th century monumental landscape in Portugal. Finally, the monument and the chapel housing it are looked at through the prism of the various readings that successive generations of viewers have projected onto it, from the time of its creation to the turn of the 20th century, in order to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the object as it stands today.

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Can the Yield Spread predict economic growth? An assessment for European countries

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA- School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Management from Louvain School of Management

Compensating variation and the young Portuguese emigrants: A study on how to keep our own

Emigration has been a very present word in Portugal. Due to the effects of the Economic Crisis and the Memorandum of Understanding policies, we have witnessed a significant yearly migration outflow of people searching for better conditions. This study aims to measure the factors affecting this flow as well as how much the probability of emigrating has evolved during the years bridging 2006 to 2012. I shall consider the decision of emigrating as Discrete Choice Random Utility maximization use a conditional Logit framework to model the probability choice for 31 OECD countries of destination. Moreover I will ascertain the compensating variation required such that the probability of choice in 2012 is adjusted back to 2007 values, keeping all other variables constant. I replicate this exercise using the unemployment rate instead of income. The most likely country of destination is Luxembourg throughout the years analyzed and the values obtained for the CV is of circa 1.700€ in terms of Income per capita and -11% in terms of the unemployment rate adjustment.

Prospective system analysis of stationary battery systems under the frame of Constructive Technology Assessment

Based on the report for the unit “Project IV” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Dr.-Ing. Marcel Weil and Prof. Dr. António Brandão Moniz. The report was presented and discussed at the Doctorate Conference on Technologogy Assessment in July 2013 at the University Nova Lisboa, Caparica campus.

Financial depth, stock markets and economic growth in the EU-15 countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial depth on economic growth in the EU-15 countries from 1970 until 2012, using the two-step System GMM estimator. Even though it might be expected a positive impact, the results show it is negative and sometimes even negative and statistically significant. Among the reasons presented for this, the existence of banking crises seems to better explain these results. In tranquil periods, financial deepening appears to have a positive impact, whereas in banking crises it is persistently negative and statistically significant. Also, after an assessment of the impact of stock markets on economic growth, it appears that more developed countries in the EU-15 have an economy more reliant on this segment of the financial system rather than in bank intermediation.