Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The financial system in Mozambique: Opportunities, barriers and market potential

This research is empirical and exploratory intending to analyse the attractiveness of banking in Mozambique, considering its positive outlook. To identify the opportunities and barriers, the methods adopted were elite interviews with banking executives, complemented by secondary data. The opportunities for new entrants seem to include bankarization and the emergence of micro and smallmedium enterprises; other avenues seem to include investment banking, support of mega-projects (e.g. energy, infrastructures) through syndicates and cooperation with multilaterals, and the participation in developing capital markets. Conversely, the main barriers include shortage of talent, inadequate infrastructures, poverty, unsophisticated entrepreneurial culture (e.g. informal economy, inadequate financial reporting), burdensome bureaucracy (e.g. visas), foreign exchange regulation, as well as low liquidity and high funding costs for banks. The key conclusions suggest a window of opportunity for niche markets, and new products and services in retail and investment banking.

Market value of corruption

This paper studies the impact of the Brazilian anticorruption legislation, PL 6826/2010, on stock returns. I show that, around the law approval date, the greater the link between the corporate and political worlds, the worse is the companies’ performance. Companies awarded with public contracts in 2012 suffer more with the new legislation approval. Firms with above median contract values have 2.9% lower returns than its peers. The negative effect is more pronounced for bigger and more complex entities, associated with higher levels of Corporate Responsibility and Governance and not subject to the US FCPA.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

An internationalisation research project into the German market for the Portuguese canned seafood company COFACO.

This project is aimed to analyse the German market of canned fish, in order to find out if there is potential of entering the market for the Portuguese canned seafood company named COFACO. The purpose of this foreign market research, carried out for COFACO, is to highlight the main key aspects of the current German seafood market, founded out through a deep analysis. Moreover, the work project is also aimed to give the company suggestions regarding the Brand, the Product and the Distribution strategy to implement in order to succeed, once considered the opportunity to enter the market.

Fruta com cheiro: The implementation of a new brand of fruit in the Portuguese market

‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’ is an idea for a new brand of fruit that would be introduced in the Portuguese market that would differentiate itself from the brands already in the market and from other non-branded fruit producers. In order to prove that the idea was valid and would have a place in the market, two methods of exploratory research were used – in-depth interviews and focus groups – to understand attitudes and behaviors regarding fruit selection and purchase and also people’s perceptions to ‘’Fruta com Cheiro’’. After these two steps, several considerations were made in relation to preliminary marketing aspects such as brand creation and positioning. There was also a final remark on the fact that this thesis is not a business plan and its purpose was to show how viable would the project be.

Customer relationship management at Siemens Healthcare – a diagnosis and proposal for strategy and market segmentation

Towards a holistic perspective of CRM, this project aims to diagnose and propose a strategy and market segmentation for Siemens Healthcare. The main underlying principle is to apply a full customer-centric outlook taking own business properties into consideration while preserving Siemens Healthcare’s culture and vision. Mainly focused on market segmentation, this project goes beyond established boundaries by employing an unbiased perspective of CRM while challenging current strategy, goals, processes, tools, initiatives and KPIs. In order to promote a sustainable business excellence strategy, this project aspires to streamline CRM strategic importance and driving the company one step forward.

Internationalization strategy for MyHelpster.com with a focus on international market selection

International Market Selection is an important step towards a successful internationalization strategy. This is no different for startup companies like MyHelpster. This work project was intended to help MyHelpster with their internationalization process by completing the IMS portion of it. The IMS process presented in this paper lead to the conclusion that MyHelpster’s next market for expansion should be the USA. In order to find as much success as possible the author suggests being patient and only expanding when the company has the necessary capital, experience and credibility. Both primary and secondary data were used to compile the qualitative and quantitative analyses.

Finding new opportunities in the Lisbon market through Whitaker consumer lifestyle segmentation

A sample of 445 consumers resident in distinct Lisbon areas was analyzed through direct observations in order to discover each lifestyle’s current proportion, applying the Whitaker Lifestyle™ Method. The findings of the conducted hypothesis tests on the population proportion unveil that Neo-Traditional and Modern Whitaker lifestyles have the significantly highest proportion, while the overall presence of different lifestyles varies across neighborhoods. The research further demonstrates the validity of Whitaker observation techniques, media consumption differences among lifestyles and the importance of style and aesthetics while segmenting consumers by lifestyles. Finally, market opportunities are provided for firms operating in Lisbon.

The quest for growth in the German organic food retail market: Historical trends, current strategies, and future outlook

This paper aims to provide strategies for the organic supermarket chain “Alnatura” to shape the demand and its market share of the organic food & beverage (F&B) market in Germany within the next five years. Through the historic evolution and the current market assessment of Germany, compared to a benchmark country (US), as well as prospective trends in Germany, reasons and opportunities for market growth are evaluated. In addition, an industry attractiveness, competitor and company analysis is executed. Based on those findings and a conducted survey, suggestions to adjust Alnatura´s current business strategies are deduced and finally examined on its risk and feasibility.

International market selection of Carrefour

Carrefour has been internationalizing into many countries and would like to continue growing. This study focuses on the potential future international market selection of Car-refour, comparing countries from the EU and South America, in a quantitative and qual-itative analysis. The purpose of the project is to help Carrefour to find the right market and the right mode to entry. Through semi-structured interviews and a literature research we found out that Sweden has the highest potential to entry with a Venture (Marketing), followed by Austria

Value creation in the nursing home real estate investment market - A case study

The underlying thesis examines the value drivers of direct investments in nursing home real estate in Germany. A survey among investors and operators is conducted in order to identify significant value drivers. Moreover, based on survey results, a framework for assessing German nursing home real estate is developed. This is applied in a case-study about the set-up of a nursing home value-add fund which will demonstrate the value creation process of redeveloping an existing nursing home real estate portfolio. Through a concluding analysis the sources of value creation, sensitivities and future prospects of direct investing into German nursing home real estate are concluded.