An ANP model to support decision-making in a Portuguese pharmaceutical supply chain

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

A constructive technology assessment of stationary energy storage systems: prospective life cycle orientated analysis

Based on the presentation and discussion at the 3rd Winter School on Technology Assessment, December 2012, Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), Caparica Campus, PhD programme on Technology Assessment

Comparative analysis of multicriteria decision making methods

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Equity in access to MRI equipment: the Portuguese case

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a method of image diagnose proven to be of undeniable importance when it comes to neuro and cardio related diseases. In fact, these diseases (such as: ischemic heart disease, stroke and acute myocardial infection) have high incidence in Portugal. For these reasons, the allocation of this medical technology should not be considered with light thoughts. In fact, making decision of resource allocation in health care can be a very complex and contested matter. The impacts of new technology allocation, such MRI, can be assessed in a variety of ways. However, a fundamental component should always be present: the use of evidence-based decision-making methods. One of these methods is Technology Assessment (TA). This paper aims to characterize the equity on access of the Portuguese population in general, to a specific medical device such as MRI, under the TA point of view. It is hoped to promote a bridge of scientific knowledge between the gap on research and policy-making through TA that can emerge as a tool to aid decision-makers in the organization of health systems. There are gaps in providing healthcare, due to geographical imbalances, with some areas unable to provide certain specialized services, as hospitals in the countryside do not provide all medical specialties. Portugal has also a large independent private sector that provides diagnostic and therapeutic services to NHS users under contracts called conventions. These medical contracts cover ambulatory health facilities for laboratory tests and examinations such as diagnostic tests and Radiology. However, there is no convention from the NHS when concerning the MRI exam. Therefore, this reality can be considered a limitation in the access of the general population to this kind of clinical exam. TA can play an useful and important role in helping the decision-makers to explore potential gains that might be achieved by introducing a more rational decision making into health care management, namely into the Radiology area, regarding the allocation of MRI equipment.

Making sense of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing in duopoly markets

The prediction of asymmetric equilibria with Stackelberg outcomes is clearly the most frequent result in the endogenous timing literature. Several experiments have tried to validate this prediction empirically, but failed to find support for it. By contrast, the experiments find that simultaneous-move outcomes are modal and that behavior in endogenous timing games is quite heterogeneous. This paper generalizes Saloner’s (1987) and Hamilton and Slutsky’s (1990) endogenous timing games by assuming that players are averse to inequality in payoffs. We explore the theoretical implications of inequity aversion and compare them to the empirical evidence. We find that this explanation is able to organize most of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing games. However, inequity aversion is not able to explain delay in Hamilton and Slutsky’s endogenous timing games.

Opening Pousada da Serra da Estrela in Covilhã: A two-way impact analysis - interacting with private agents

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

InStory – The Making of na Interactive Digital Narrative

Em cooperação com Glorianna Davenport do M.I.T. Media Lab

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Optimal choice between even- and uneven-aged forestry: the case of non-industrial private forest owners

An infinite-horizon discrete time model with multiple size-class structures using a transition matrix is built to assess optimal harvesting schedules in the context of Non-Industrial Private Forest (NIPF) owners. Three model specifications accounting for forest income, financial return on an asset and amenity valuations are considered. Numerical simulations suggest uneven-aged forest management where a rational forest owner adapts her or his forest policy by influencing the regeneration of trees or adjusting consumption dynamics depending on subjective time preference and market return rate dynamics on the financial asset. Moreover she or he does not value significantly non-market benefits captured by amenity valuations relatively to forest income.

Shiva's dance: Crisis, local institutions and private firms

The uneven spatial distribution of start-ups and their respective survival may reflect comparative advantages resulting from the local institutional background. For the first time, we explore this idea using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to assess the relative efficiency of Portuguese municipalities in this specific context. We depart from the related literature where expenditure is perceived as a desirable input by choosing a measure of fiscal responsibility and infrastructural variables in the first stage. Comparing results for 2006 and 2010, we find that mean performance decreased substantially 1) with the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, 2) as municipal population increases and 3) as financial independence decreases. A second stage is then performed employing a double-bootstrap procedure to evaluate how the regional context outside the control of local authorities (e.g. demographic characteristics and political preferences) impacts on efficiency.

COMTEMP: Financing expansion through private equity?

COMTEMP – Companhia de Temperos, Lda. is a Portuguese company that produces vinegars (e.g. CRISTAL vinegars), sauces and condiments. This case study aims to analyze its attractiveness to receive a venture capital investment. The main covered topics are arranged into the following sections: foundation, company, industry, competition, industrial kitchen opportunity, financial strategy and decision.

Importance of decision-making in a purchasing context – DPS Case Study

This work project has the objective of exploring the importance of making good decisions on supplier selection, so that the purchasing department can contribute to the success of a company. For that it is presented a short bibliography review of the latest insights that were found relevant, on the subjects of purchasing, technology, outsourcing, supplier selection and decision-making techniques. For a better understating on how to deal with a decision-making situation, a case study is also presented: Digital Printing Solutions (DPS) is a Portuguese company that provides complete and integrated printing solutions and has been planning to contract a software supplier. DPS has no formal supplier-selection model and it has to choose between 2 suppliers. The case study was solved using the M-MACBETH software. I have found that complex decisions-making situations can be easily overcome by using the M-MACBETH decision model. Moreover, the usage of a model, instead of decision that follows no formal procedure, provides the decision maker with insights that can be useful to negotiate with the supplier.

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

Competition effects from patient mobility in the European Union

This paper studies the effects of reimbursement for medical tourism within the European Union. We use a spatial competition framework to study the effects on prices, qualities and patient flows between two countries. Patient mobility increases with the implementation of reimbursement mechanisms. The resulting equilibria in prices and qualities depend on the rule of reimbursements and possible differences in country specific parameters. Soft budget constraints that public providers may have, pose a competitive advantage over private providers and divert demand toward the former. Supranational coordination concerning soft budgets constraints is needed to address the potentially detrimental effects on aggregate welfar