Emove

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Learnings from real cases route-to-market redesign within the Portuguese lubricants sector

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Automated Generation of Indoor Accessibility Information for Mobility-Impaired Individuals

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

The agroindustrial residue valorisation with high pressure CO2 within biorefinery concept

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Bioquímica

Multivariate analysis applied to clinical analysis data

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Beriberi epidemic within rural Muslin fishing communities in Guiné - Bissau

Beriberi, ou cardiopatia e polineuropatia ligada à deficiência de tiamina, foi, antigamente, um flagelo nas populações. Os mais notáveis surtos de beriberi ocorreram após o advento da moagem de massa de arroz, em várias zonas da Ásia, no final do século XIX. Com a descoberta de vitamina B1, "anti-beriberi", e, subsequentemente, o enriquecimento de alimentos e as campanhas de sensibilização de saúde pública, a doença foi esquecida por muitos profissionais de saúde. Contudo, sabe-se que, hoje em dia, em diferentes partes do mundo, muitos casos de beriberi são os focos primários de epidemias de outras deficiências potencialmentes fatais, em comunidades vulneráveis. Determinados alimentos, assim como o álcool, são conhecidos para reduzir a absorção de vitamina B1. A Encefalopatia de Wernicke, a deficiência de tiamina mais conhecida pelos médicos que trabalham em países desenvolvidos, está associada à ingestão de álcool. Estudos recentes demonstraram, por um lado, atrasos significativos do desenvolvimento neurolinguístico em crianças alimentadas com leite sem tiamina, assim como uma possível correlação entre malária grave e deficiencia em Vitamina B1, o que reforça a importância desta vitamina na saúde das populações. A Guiné-Bissau, um país fragilizado pelos conflitos coloniais e pós-coloniais, instabilidade política, tráfico de droga e deficiente acesso à Saúde, continua sendo um dos países mais pobres do mundo. A maioria da população vive da agricultura de subsistência, pesca e colheita de cajú. O Islão é practicado por quase metade da população, e as religiões animistas e cristãs compõem as outras religiões principais do país. De acordo com a fé islâmica, os muçulmanos da Guiné-Bissau praticam o jejum, em função da luz do dia, durante o mês de Ramadão. Existe pouca investigação publicada sobre os efeitos nutricionais e na saúde deste ritual. Este trabalho é o primeiro a relacionar uma deficiência de micronutrientes ao mês sagrado do Ramadão. Esta tese apresenta casos clínicos de beriberi em comunidades rurais muçulmanas, que ocorreram no final da época das chuvas, que coincide com o mês de Ramadão. A análise dos dados mostra que, uma vez que alguns dos doentes apresentavam os mesmos sintomas, repetidamente, todos os anos, estes casos podem refletir a ponta do iceberg da ocorrência de beriberi na Guiné-Bissau. Parte da discussão centra-se na necessidade de mais investigação para confirmar o grau de deficiência na população em geral, efeitos de deficiência de tiamina relacionados com a malária, e consequências possíveis da deficiência marginal, a longo prazo, desta vitamina na saúde. A discussão apresenta ainda sugestões práticas para a redução da incidência da deficiência de vitamina B1 na Guiné-Bissau.

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Is there space to build one more transshipment terminal within Portuguese territory?

NSBE - UNL

NAV Portugal's performance within the single European Sky Initiative

NAV Portugal is the Air Navigation Service Provider in Portugal, providing air traffic control services in the airspace under the country’s responsibility. Recently, the company has been included in an initiative launched by the European Commission, called the Single European Sky. This aims for a unification of the European airspace, improving it in four main pillars: safety, capacity, environment, and cost-efficiency. To each of them, Key Performance Indicators need to be computed and monitored, all having pre-defined targets. The presented work project will be analyzing how NAV Portugal is doing in the pillar of capacity, proving suggestions if needed.

Hotel industry: An answer to the emerging trends on the global demand side of tourism

This dissertation studies essentially how Millennials are changing the hotel industry, in the sense that new trends are emerging with this generation and hotels need to respond accordingly, in order to survive within their competitive industry. Emphasis is also given to Asian travellers, as the enlargement of these countries’ middle class populations is predicted, therefore making Asian travellers a valuable target for the hotel industry. To successfully target this segment, hoteliers need also to consider the cultural differences and aspirations that come together with the Asian travellers, and appropriately adapt their offer to them. I will then redirect this study to the city of Lisbon, the Portuguese capital, to analyse if Lisbon’s four and five-star hotel managers are aware of the new market trends, and to understand how they are changing their hotels in order to make them more attractive to Millennials and Asian travellers. Using a sample of 12 hotels (four and five-stars ratings), I have concluded that, although there is a notable undergoing process of adaptation to these guests, there is a long way ahead in order for Lisbon’s hotels to entirely please and retain millennial guests.

Phage display as a tool for generation of bio-therapeutic agents for breast cancer

Notch is a conserved signalling pathway, which plays a crucial role in a multiple cellular processes such as stem cell self-renewal, cell division, proliferation and apoptosis. In mammalian, four Notch receptors and five ligands are described, where interaction is achieved through their extracellular domains, leading to a transcription activation of different target genes. Increased expression of Notch ligands has been detected in several types of cancer, including breast cancer suggesting that these proteins represent possible therapeutic targets. The goal of this work was to generate quality protein targets and, by phage display technology, select function-blocking antibodies specific for Notch ligands. Phage display is a powerful technique that allows the generation of highly specific antibodies to be used for therapeutics, and it has also proved to be a reliable approach in identifying and validating new cancer-related targets. Also, we aimed at solving the tri-dimensional structure of the Notch ligands alone and in complex with selected antibodies. In this work, the initial phase focused on the optimization of the expression and purification of a human Delta-like 1 ligand mutant construct (hDLL1-DE3), by refolding from E. coli inclusion bodies. To confirm the biological activity of the produced recombinant protein cellular functional studies were performed, revealing that treatment with hDLL1-DE3 protein led to a modulation of Notch target genes. In a second stage of this study, Antibody fragments (Fabs) specific for hDLL1-DE3 were generated by phage display, using the produced protein as target, in which one good Fab candidate was selected to determine the best expression conditions. In parallel, multiple crystallization conditions were tested with hDLL1-DE3, but so far none led to positive results.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Cell functional enviromics: applications to Pichia pastoris

The present PhD thesis develops the cell functional enviromics (CFE) method to investigate the relationship between environment and cellular physiology. CFE may be defined as the envirome-wide cellular function reconstruction through the collection and systems-level analysis of dynamic envirome data. Throughout the thesis, CFE is illustrated by two main applications to cultures of a constitutive P. pastoris X33 strain expressing a scFv antibody fragment. The first application addresses the challenge of culture media development. A dataset was built from 26 shake flask experiments, with variations in trace elements concentrations and basal medium dilution based on the standard BSM+PTM1. Protein yield showed high sensitivity to culture medium variations, while biomass was essentially determined by BSM dilution. High scFv yield was associated with high overall metabolic fluxes through central carbon pathways concomitantly with a relative shift of carbon flux from biosynthetic towards energy-generating pathways. CFE identified three cellular functions (growth, energy generation and by-product formation) that together described 98.8% of the variance in observed fluxes. Analyses of how medium factors relate to identified cellular functions showed iron and manganese at concentrations close to PTM1 inhibit overall metabolic activity. The second application addresses bioreactor operation. Pilot 50 L fed-batch cultivations, followed by 1H-NMR exometabolite profiling, allowed the acquisition of data for 21 environmental factors over time. CFE identified five major metabolic pathway groups that are frequently activated by the environment. The resulting functional enviromics map may serve as template for future optimization of media composition and feeding strategies for Pichia pastoris. The present PhD thesis is a step forward towards establishing the foundations of CFE that is still at its infancy. The methods developed herein are a contribution for changing the culture media and process development paradigm towards a holistic and systematic discipline in the future.

Alpha generation with Twitter’s daily momentum

This thesis does not set out to focus on the dynamics relationship between Twitter and stock prices, but instead tries to understand if using relevant information extracted from tweets has the power to increase investors’ stock picking ability, and generate alpha in portfolio’s choice relative to a benchmark. Despite the short period analyzed, it gives promising results that the sentiment analysis performed by Social Market Analytics Inc. applied to an equity portfolio, is able to generate positive abnormal returns, statistically significant in and out of sample.