Metodologia Value-at-risk: aplicação a uma carteira de obrigações de tesouro portuguesas

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Notificação de incidentes e eventos adversos em neonatologia : adaptação de um sistema de notificação numa unidade de cuidados intermédios neonatal

RESUMO - A segurança do doente é um tema que tem sido amplamente estudado por todo o mundo. Com o desenvolvimento do conhecimento, das técnicas e o advento das learning organizations é possível detectar as áreas onde existe potencial risco, conhecer o número de incidentes de forma sistemática, promover a evolução das técnicas nas áreas mais urgentes, determinar o impacto de todos os incidentes e eventos adversos, aprender com eles e promover modificações nas organizações. A neonatologia não foi excepção, pelo que se pretende a criação e validação de um sistema de notificação de eventos adversos e de incidentes, anónimo e não punitivo, adaptado a uma Unidade de Cuidados Intermédios Neonatal. O delineamento do estudo passou pela revisão bibliográfica para a construção de um sistema e posterior análise do mesmo por um painel de especialistas, para a selecção e consenso de itens que integraram o modelo. Por fim este sistema foi sujeito a um pré-teste. Com a aplicação da Técnica de Grupo Nominal constatou-se que a confidencialidade dos dados é um tema muito sensível aos profissionais. Na aplicação do pré-teste as categorias de incidentes notificados relacionam-se com medicação, ventilação e identificação. Assim sendo, este sistema detém validade interna, no entanto com a aplicação do pré-teste verificou-se que este perde validade externa, pelo que os resultados apresentados neste projecto de investigação não podem ser generalizados. A notificação é uma área para a qual os profissionais estão sensibilizados, no entanto, ainda encontra muitos entraves à sua implementação e consequentemente à colheita de dados.

What is the value of value-at-risk after all?: A conditional approach using quantile regressions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Development of a fuzzy qualitative risk assessment model applied to construction industry

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Industrial

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Atherogenesis and atherosclerosis in primary antiphospholipid syndrome

ABSTRACT: In the late seventies the term “Haematological Stress Syndrome” defined some haematological abnormalities appearing in the course of acute and chronic disorders, such as raised plasma levels of fibrinogen (FNG) and factor VIII, reduced fibrinolytic activity and hyperviscosity. In the early nineties the “Membrane stress syndrome hypothesis” proposed the unification of the concepts of haematological stress syndrome with those of oxidation, inflammation and immune activation to explain the pathogenesis of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) Antiphospholipid antibodies, coagulation, fibrinolysis and thrombosis. This chapter investigated the occurrence of the “Haematological Stress Syndrome” and thrombosis in 144 participants positive for aPL detected by clotting and immune tests. Among the clotting assays for the detection of lupus anticoagulant, dilute Russell's viper venom time better correlated with a history of venous thrombosis than activated partial thromboplastin time (p<0.0002 vs p<0.009) and was the only test correlated with a history of arterial thrombosis (p<0.01). By regression analysis, serum levels of IgG anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) associated with the number of venous occlusions (p<0.001). With regards to FNG and von Willebrand factor (vWF), the former rose by 36% (95% CI; 21%, 53%) and the latter by 50% (95% CI; 29%, 75%) at the first venous occlusion and remained unchanged after subsequent occlusions. At variance FNG rose by 45% (95% CI; 31%, 60%) per arterial occlusion and vWF by 27% (95% CI; 10%, 47%) per arterial occlusion throughout. The coagulation/fibrinolytic balance was cross-sectionally evaluated on 18 thrombotic PAPS patients, 18 subjects with persistence of idiopathic aPL and in healthy controls. Markers of thrombin generation prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2), thrombin-antithrombin complex (TAT) and of fibrin turnover D-Dimer (D-D) were higher in thrombotic (p=0.006)and non-thrombotic subjects (p=0.0001) than in controls as were those of D-D (p<0.0001 and p=0.003 respectively). TAT levels did not differ. Gender analysed data revealed blunted tPA release (hence a negative venous occlusion test) in thrombotic females but neither in thrombotic males (p=0.01) nor in asymptomatic subjects of either sex. Also, in both patient groups females had higher mean PAI than males (p<0.0002) and control females (p<0.02). The activity of factor XIII (FXIIIa) was evaluated was evaluated in 29 patients with PAPS, 14 persistent carriers of aPL without thrombosis, 24 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia, 28 healthy controls and 32 patients with mitral and aortic valve prosthesis as controls for FXIII only. FXIIIa was highest in PAPS (p=0.001), particularly in patients with multiple (n=12) than single occlusion (p=0.02) and in correlation with PAI (p=0.003) and FNG (p=0.005). Moreover FXIIIa was strongly associated with IgG aCL and IgG anti-2GPI (p=0.005 for both) in the PAPS group and to a lesser degree in the aPL group (FXIIIa with IgG aCL, p=0.02, with IgG anti-2GPI, p=0.04). Altogether these results indicate: 1) a differential relationship of aPL, vWF and FNG with venous and arterial thrombosis; 2) heightened thrombin generation, accelerated fibrin turnover and fibrinolysis abnormalities also in asymptomatic carriers of aPLs; 3) enhanced FXIIIa that may contribute to atherothrombosis via increased fibrin/fibrinogen cross-linking. Lipid profile, lipid peroxidation and anti-lipoprotein antibodies in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. Given the atherogenic lipid profile of SLE, the same possibility was explored in PAPS by comparing high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), total cholesterol (CHO), apolipoprotein AI (ApoAI), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), triglycerides (TG), anti-lipoprotein antibodies, beta-2-glycoprotein I complexed to oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL-2GPI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) in 34 thrombotic PAPS patients compared to 36 thrombotic patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), to 18 subjects persistently positive for antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) with no underlying autoimmune or non-autoimmune disorders and to 28 healthy controls. Average concentrations of HDL (p<0.0001), LDL (p<0.0001), CHO (p=0.0002), ApoAI (p=0.002) were lower in PAPS whereas average TRY was higher (p=0.01) than other groups. Moreover PAPS showed higher IgG anti-HDL (p=0.01) and IgG anti-ApoAI (p<0.0001) as well as greater average oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.001) and CRP (p=0.003). Within PAPS, IgG anti-HDL correlated negatively to HDL (p=0.004) and was an independent predictor of oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.009). HDL and ApoAI correlated negatively with CRP (p=0.001 and p=0.007, respectively). IgG anti-HDL may hamper the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effect of HDL favouring low-grade inflammation and enhanced oxidation in thrombotic PAPS. Indeed plasma 8-epi-prostaglandin F2α (a very specific marker of lipid peroxidation) was significantly higher in 10 patients with PAPS than 10 age and sex matched healthy subjects (p=0.0002) and strongly related to the titre of plasma IgG aCL (r=0.89, p=0.0004). Hence oxidative stress, a major player in atherogenesis, also characterises PAPS. Nitric oxide and nitrative stress in thrombotic primary antiphosholipid syndrome. Oxidative stress goes hand in hand with nitrative stress and to address the latter plasma nitrotyrosine (NT, marker of nitrative stress), nitrite (NO2-) and nitrate (NO3-) were measured in 46 thrombotic PAPS patients, 21 asymptomatic but persistent carriers of antiphospholipid antibodies (PCaPL), 38 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT), 33 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and 29 healthy controls (CTR). Average crude NT was higher in PAPS and SLE (p=0.01) whereas average plasma NO2- was lower in PAPS and average NO3- highest in SLE (p<0.0001). In PAPS, IgG aCL titer and number of vascular occlusions negatively predicted NO2-, (p=0.03 and p=0.001, respectively) whereas arterial occlusions and smoking positively predicted NO3- (p=0.05 and p=0.005). Moreover CRP (an inflammatory marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade marker) positively predicted NT (p=0.004). Nitric oxide metabolites relates to type and number of vascular occlusions and to aPL titers, whereas nitrative stress relates to low grade inflammation and both phenomena may have implications for thrombosis and atherosclerosis in PAPS Inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome. To investigate inflammation and immune activation in thrombotic PAPS high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), oxLDL-2GPI, CRP bound to oxLDL-2GPI (CRP-oxLDL-2GPI) (as inflammatory markers) neopterin (NPT) and soluble CD14 (sCD14) (as immune activation markers) were measured by ELISA in 41 PAPS patients, in 44 patients with inherited thrombophilia (IT) and 39 controls (CTR). Compared to other groups, PAPS presented with higher plasma concentrations of inflammatory, hs-CRP (p=0.0004), SAA (p<0.01), CRP-oxLDL-2GPI (p=0.0004) and immune activation markers, NPT (p<0.0001) and sCD14 (p=0.007). By regression analysis SAA independently predicted thrombosis number (p=0.003) and NPT independently predicted thrombosis type (arterial, p=0.03) and number (p=0.04). These data confirm that low-grade inflammation and immune activation occur and relate to vascular features of PAPS. Antiphosholipid antibodies, haemostatic variables and atherosclerosis in thrombotic primary antiphospholipid syndrome To evaluate whether IgG aCL titre, haemostatic variables and the lipid profile bore any relationship to the intima media thickness (IMT) of carotid arteries high-resolution sonography was applied to the common carotid (CC), carotid bifurcation (CB) and internal carotid (IC) of 42 aPL subjects, 29 with primary thrombotic antiphospholipid syndrome and 13 with persistence of aPL in the absence of any underlying disorder. The following were measured: plasma FNG, vWF, PAI, homocysteine (HC), CHO, TG, HDL, LDL, platelet numbers and aCL of IgG and IgM isotype. By multiple regression analysis, IgG aCL titre independently predicted IMT at all carotid segments examined (p always <0.005). Plasma FNG and HC independently predicted IMT at the CB (p=0.001 and p<0.0001, respectively) and IC (p=0.03 and p<0.0001, respectively). These data strongly support an atherogenic role for IgG aCL in patients with aPL in addition to traditional risk factors. The atherosclerosis hypothesis was investigated in an age and sex-matched case-double-control study including 49 thrombotic PAPS patients (18 M, 31 F, mean age 37 ± 11), 49 thrombotic patients for IT and 49 healthy subjects. Average IMT was always greater in PAPS than control patients (CC: p=0.004, CB: p=0.013, IC: p=0.001). By dividing participants into age tertiles the IMT was greater in the second (CC: p=0.003, CB: p=0.023, IC: p=0.003) and third tertiles (CC: p=0.03, CB: p=0.004, IC: p=0.007). Conclusion: Coagulation activation, fibrinolysis depression, hightened fibrin turnover, oxidative and nitrative stress in parallel with low grade inflammation and immune activation characterise thrombotic PAPS: all these are early atherogenic processes and contribute to the demonstrated premature atherosclerosis that should be considered a clinical feature of PAPS.

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Caracterização das estruturas de qualidade e segurança do doente

RESUMO - Título: “Caracterização das Estruturas de Qualidade e Segurança do Doente” A segurança dos doentes assume-se, hoje em dia, como prioridade máxima e é um paradigma de qualidade dos cuidados de saúde. Definida como um conjunto de medidas destinadas a melhorar a segurança e a qualidade de prestação de cuidados de saúde, surge a gestão de risco. Assim, um programa de gestão de risco poderá ser definido como um conjunto de procedimentos e de objetivos pré-definidos com o intuito de promover uma cultura de segurança no seio das organizações de saúde. A nível nacional, no processo de busca da excelência, é necessário estabelecer exigências que formalizem os mecanismos que as instituições de saúde e os seus profissionais terão que utilizar para assegurar que os cuidados de saúde que prestam aos cidadãos, respondem aos critérios da qualidade definidos pelo Departamento da Qualidade na Saúde. Tornou-se, então, pertinente verificar as estratégias que existem sobre a gestão de risco, a nível nacional, e por outro lado, como é que as unidades de saúde têm estruturada esta área nas suas organizações. Como tal, com este estudo pretendeu-se caracterizar as Estruturas de Qualidade e Segurança do Doente, tendo como população as unidades de saúde da região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo. Foi utilizada uma abordagem metodológica do tipo observacional descritiva, que integrou a aplicação de um questionário. De forma geral, foi possível concluir que todas as unidades de saúde (N=7) afirmam ter implementada a gestão do risco, no entanto há unidades que não fazem a avaliação e identificação do risco (N=4) e a maioria não realizam auditorias clínicas regularmente (N=5). Considera-se que estes resultados podem contribuir para a criação de oportunidades para as organizações e para os profissionais, com o objetivo de melhorar a prestação de cuidados, com consequente melhoria na segurança do doente.

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Exposição a ozono em cabinas de avião

RESUMO - O ozono é o principal componente da poluição fotoquímica do ar. Como agente irritante do aparelho respiratório, os seus efeitos sobre a saúde caracterizam-se, essencialmente, por tosse, dispneia, desconforto torácico e alterações da função pulmonar, encontrando-se também associadas à exposição ambiental a O3 tanto uma maior frequência e gravidade de crises de asma como a ocorrência de quadros clínicos de irritação conjuntival. É sobretudo a partir dos anos 50, com a descoberta de concentrações elevadas de ozono em ambientes de trabalho respeitantes à actividade de soldadura «a arco», que aquele gás passa a ser encarado como factor profissional de risco. No início dos anos 60 surgem os primeiros estudos de exposição a O3 em cabinas de avião, suscitados pela ocorrência, em tripulantes e passageiros, de queixas clínicas de irritação do tracto respiratório. Esta sintomatologia era, até então, atribuída à acção de outros factores, designadamente o sistema de ventilação e o baixo teor de humidade do ar. Posteriormente, alguns estudos revelaram que, em voos comerciais subsónicos, os teores elevados de O3 observados no interior das cabinas poderiam ser provocados pela sua insuficiente destruição nos sistemas de entrada de ar.O presente estudo, efectuado em voos de longo curso realizados em aeronaves Airbus A340-300 numa única rota comercial, teve por objectivo avaliar a exposição a ozono no ar interior em cabina de avião. Os teores médios de concentração de ozono observados foram inferiores aos valores susceptíveis de provocarem efeitos adversos sobre o aparelho respiratório. Como valor máximo instantâneo, foi atingida a concentração de 152 ppb. Adicionalmente, foi constatada a influência das estações do ano nos teores de O3. O conjunto dos resultados obtidos permite concluir que as concentrações de ozono no ar interior nas cabinas de avião estudadas são inferiores às correspondentes concentrações máximas admissíveis, tendo, em todos os voos, sido observado o cumprimento da norma da FAA respeitante à protecção da exposição ao ozono em cabinas de aeronaves de aviação comercial.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Toxicity of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and their mixtures to aquatic organisms under ecologically-relevant scenarios

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous priority pollutants that tend to be trapped in aquatic sediments due to their high hydrophobicity. Nonetheless, the differential toxicological effects and mechanisms between the various classes of PAHs and their mixtures, as they invariably occur in the environment, are scarcely known, especially under ecologically-relevant scenarios. This thesis aimed at establishing a bridge between the study of mechanistic pathways and environmental monitoring of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic PAHs, by introducing ecological-relevance in the research with model PAHs. A first bioassay conducted in situ with the mussel Mytilus edulis demonstrated that, dredging operations in harbours increase PAH bioavailability, eliciting genotoxicity, and showed that established environmental guidelines underestimate risk. Subsequent ex situ bioassays were performed with the carcinogenic benzo[b]fluoranthene (B[b]F) and non-carcinogenic phenantrene (Phe), selected following preceding results, and revealed that low-moderate concentrations of these PAHs in spiked sediments induce genotoxic effects to the clam Ruditapes decussatus, therefore contradicting the general notion that bivalves are less sensitive to PAHs than vertebrates due to inefficient bioactivation. Also, it was demonstrated that passive samplers permit inferring on PAH bioavailability but not on bioaccumulation or toxic effects. On the other hand, sea basses (Dicentrarchus labrax), yielded a complex pattern of effects and responses, relatively to genotoxicity, oxidative stress and production of specific metabolites, especially when exposed to mixtures of the PAHs which led to additive, if not synergistic, effects. It was shown that Phe may elicit significant genotoxicity especially in presence of B[b]F, even though the low, albeit realistic, exposure concentrations diluted dose- and time-independent relationships. The present work demonstrated that environmental quality guidelines underestimate the effects of PAHs in realistic scenarios and showed that the significant genotoxic and histopathological effects caused by mixed PAHs may not be reflected by oxidative stress- or CYP-related biomarkers. Besides important findings on the metabolism of PAH mixtures, the work calls for the need to re-evaluate the criteria for assessing risk and for the disclosure of more efficient indicators of toxicological hazard.