Design of future distribution grids

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Government bond yield spreads in EMU countries: The story of an ephemeral convergence

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Transparency in project bond ratings: Assessment of rating methodologies and development of a proven rating simulator

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yield spread

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Development of a satellite based PM10 concentration product for urban areas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation of endemic forest land snails of Madeira Island

Climate change is emerging as one of the major threats to natural communities of the world’s ecosystems; and biodiversity hotspots, such as Madeira Island, might face a challenging future in the conservation of endangered land snails’ species. With this thesis, progresses have been made in order to properly understand the impact of climate on these vulnerable taxa; and species distribution models coupled with GIS and climate change scenarios have become crucial to understand the relations between species distribution and environmental conditions, identifying threats and determining biodiversity vulnerability. With the use of MaxEnt, important changes in the species suitable areas were obtained. Laurel forest species, highly dependent on precipitation and relative humidity, may face major losses on their future suitable areas, leading to the possible extinction of several endangered species, such as Leiostyla heterodon. Despite the complexity of the biological systems, the intrinsic uncertainty of species distribution models and the lack of information about land snails’ functional traits, this analysis contributed to a pioneer study on the impacts of climate change on endemic species of Madeira Island. The future inclusion of predictions of the effect of climate change on species distribution as part of IUCN assessments could contribute to species prioritizing, promoting specific management actions and maximizing conservation investment.

How to optimize Lipton’s business model in order to stimulate tea consumption in Portugal and increase Lipton Leaf tea market share?: The importance of distribution and sales channels management in a B2B2C market

Field Lab Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

Trading the differences in expectations between the CDS and bond markets

This paper uses the framework developed by Vrugt (2010) to extract the recovery rate and term-structure of risk-neutral default probabilities implied in the cross-section of Portuguese sovereign bonds outstanding between March and August 2011. During this period the expectations on the recovery rate remain firmly anchored around 50 percent while the instantaneous default probability increases steadily from 6 to above 30 percent. These parameters are then used to calculate the fair-value of a 5-year and 10- year CDS contract. A credit-risk-neutral strategy is developed from the difference between the market price of a CDS of the same tenors and the fair-value calculated, yielding a sharpe ratio of 3.2

Social impact bond feasibility study

Youth unemployment is one of the most pressing social issues in Portugal, often associated to a lack of skills. Faz-Te Forward (FFWD), a Portuguese employability programme, has demonstrated great potential for impact in solving this issue, especially amongst a neglected segment of the population – those belonging to “sandwich families”. The present thesis, integrated in the SIB Research Programme from the Social Investment Lab, evaluates the feasibility of this programme to be financed through a Social Impact Bond, an innovative outcomes-based financing model. From a data analysis undertaken to FFWD’s historical information, a business case for a SIB was developed.

Social impact bond feasibility study: Children and youth at risk: the Projecto Família program

Social impact bonds are an increasingly popular method of unlocking typical social investment barriers and fuelling social innovation. This feasibility study aims to understand whether a social impact bond is a suitable tool for decreasing unnecessary foster care placements in Portugal, which have been proven to cause significant social and financial damage to societies. This research question is answered through a financial model which combines the costs of this social problem with Projecto Família’s intervention model, a leading intensive family preservation service. Main findings suggest using SIB funding for a 5-year project with the goal of generating the proper impact measurement metrics lacking in the field.

Production of polyhydroxyalkanoates from oil-containing substrates

Different oil-containing substrates, namely, used cooking oil (UCO), fatty acids-byproduct from biodiesel production (FAB) and olive oil deodorizer distillate (OODD) were tested as inexpensive carbon sources for the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) using twelve bacterial strains, in batch experiments. The OODD and FAB were exploited for the first time as alternative substrates for PHA production. Among the tested bacterial strains, Cupriavidus necator and Pseudomonas resinovorans exhibited the most promising results, producing poly-3-hydroxybutyrate, P(3HB), form UCO and OODD and mcl-PHA mainly composed of 3-hydroxyoctanoate (3HO) and 3-hydroxydecanoate (3HD) monomers from OODD, respectively. Afterwards, these bacterial strains were cultivated in bioreactor. C. necator were cultivated in bioreactor using UCO as carbon source. Different feeding strategies were tested for the bioreactor cultivation of C. necator, namely, batch, exponential feeding and DO-stat mode. The highest overall PHA productivity (12.6±0.78 g L-1 day-1) was obtained using DO-stat mode. Apparently, the different feeding regimes had no impact on polymer thermal properties. However, differences in polymer‟s molecular mass distribution were observed. C. necator was also tested in batch and fed-batch modes using a different type of oil-containing substrate, extracted from spent coffee grounds (SCG) by super critical carbon dioxide (sc-CO2). Under fed-batch mode (DO-stat), the overall PHA productivity were 4.7 g L-1 day-1 with a storage yield of 0.77 g g-1. Results showed that SCG can be a bioresource for production of PHA with interesting properties. Furthermore, P. resinovorans was cultivated using OODD as substrate in bioreactor under fed-batch mode (pulse feeding regime). The polymer was highly amorphous, as shown by its low crystallinity of 6±0.2%, with low melting and glass transition temperatures of 36±1.2 and -16±0.8 ºC, respectively. Due to its sticky behavior at room temperature, adhesiveness and mechanical properties were also studied. Its shear bond strength for wood (67±9.4 kPa) and glass (65±7.3 kPa) suggests it may be used for the development of biobased glues. Bioreactor operation and monitoring with oil-containing substrates is very challenging, since this substrate is water immiscible. Thus, near-infrared spectroscopy (NIR) was implemented for online monitoring of the C. necator cultivation with UCO, using a transflectance probe. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was applied to relate NIR spectra with biomass, UCO and PHA concentrations in the broth. The NIR predictions were compared with values obtained by offline reference methods. Prediction errors to these parameters were 1.18 g L-1, 2.37 g L-1 and 1.58 g L-1 for biomass, UCO and PHA, respectively, which indicates the suitability of the NIR spectroscopy method for online monitoring and as a method to assist bioreactor control. UCO and OODD are low cost substrates with potential to be used in PHA batch and fed-batch production. The use of NIR in this bioprocess also opened an opportunity for optimization and control of PHA production process.

Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

Measuring spillover effects in Euro Area equity and bond markets

Since its inception, the Eurozone has experienced significant financial integration. However, with the recent turbulent period, the dynamics of this integration may have changed. This study analyses the volatility spillovers from the US and aggregate Eurozone markets into ten Euro Area national equity and bond markets, using a regime-switching model with shifting shock sensitivities. The evidence confirms an increased impact of shock spillover intensity after the 2008 crisis in the equity market and a decrease of the same parameters for the bond market. In both markets, the overall impact of the Eurozone is greater when compared to the U.S.

Bond portfolio diversification

Portfolio diversification benefits have been extensively documented and acknowledge in the literature since 1952. However, the majority of the studies have focus on an equity context, and only very few on bonds. The study purposed tries to understand and measure the diversification benefits for a pure bond portfolio by investing in securities with different credit risks, maturities and even geographies. Diversification benefits were achieved under the proposed model and some conclusions were withdrawn.