Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

MarketOpolis: A market simulation based on investors decisions

This study aims to replicate Apple’s stock market movement by modeling major investment profiles and investors. The present model recreates a live exchange to forecast any predictability in stock price variation, knowing how investors act when it concerns investment decisions. This methodology is particularly relevant if, just by observing historical prices and knowing the tendencies in other players’ behavior, risk-adjusted profits can be made. Empirical research made in the academia shows that abnormal returns are hardly consistent without a clear idea of who is in the market in a given moment and the correspondent market shares. Therefore, even when knowing investors’ individual investment profiles, it is not clear how they affect aggregate markets.

Macroeconomic risk in commodities market

The thesis studies the presence of macroeconomic risk in the commodities futures market. I present strong evidence that there is a strong relationship between macroeconomic risk and individual commodities future returns. Furthermore, long-only trading strategies seem to be strongly exposed to systematic risk, while long-short trading strategies (based on basis, momentum and basis-momentum) are found to present no such risk. Instead, I found a strong sentiment exposure in the portfolio returns of these long-short strategies, mainly during recessions. The advantages of following long-short strategies become even clearer when analyzing different macroeconomic regimes.

A segurança dos consumidores

The present report, about consumer’s safety, shows the development of the knowledge on this particular subject and the actions carried out by entities that fight for the protection of consumer’s rights. The internship was based on the knowledge acquirement on the theoretical and practical aspects of the fight lead by the Direção Geral do Consumidor, together with other entities, towards the elimination or solely the reduction of risks caused by some products and services made available for the consumers or put on the market. During the internship, I counted with the support of my supervisor in the DGC, Dr. Ana Catarina Fonseca and, for the writing of the report, I had the help of my thesis advisor, Dr. Jorge Morais Carvalho, whenever I needed constructive criticism. My participation on the creation of the informative brochures about consumer’s safety, and the study of the legislation used by the DGC on the daily work, enabled me, effectively, to consolidate my guiding principles as a future professional on the matters of the creation of entities, private and public, which aim to ensure the protection of consumers’s rights, informing them of the possible risks or solving the already existing problems, removing dangerous products and services from the market.The report clarifies the action of the DGC on the protection of consumer’s safety, and enables some knowledge on the relations between the entities that work for the protection of the consumers and the market operators and on their work on identifying dangerous products and warning the consumers about it. The final part of this report contains information that allows us to form an idea of the importance that consumer safety has had in Cape Verde, compared with the laws of Portugal on the matter.

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

Hybrid investment strategy active portfolio management – US stock market

This thesis aims to develop an alternative active managed portfolio strategy based on companies‟ Fundamental and Technical Analysis and analyze its finals results. There is a big distinction between the two approaches and the main objective is to understand if it is possible to take advantage of both. With this in mind a Hybrid investment strategy for the US stock market, due to its dimension and liquidity, which was able to outperform the S&P 500 index, the benchmark, during both Bear and Bull Markets between 2000 and 2015.

Economics consulting project for the Iberian Marketing Oil department of Galp Energia: Strategy and Marketing guidelines for Galp Energia’sconvenience business in the Iberian market

Field lab: Consulting lab

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Consulting project for the Iberian marketing Oil department of Galp Energia: Strategy and marketing guidelines for Galp Energia's convenience business in the Iberian market

Field lab: Consulting lab

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

International placement analysis of the German business market for a Nova Achool of Business and Economics graduate student

Changes in today’s society led to the evolution of professional migrations and individual searches for more suitable professional opportunities and careers outside one’s countries. International Placement is nowadays one of the world’s biggest trends in higher education for the future ahead and an appealing demand of the Millennium generations. The following work project aims to study the German business market identifying the most attractive German companies and respective graduate programs for a Nova School of Business and Economics graduate student. The study’s conclusion relies on concrete strategic suggestions regarding the implementation of the results and practical use of the outcome provided.

The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions

Consumer behavior: Sport Zone. The analysis of "The impact of in-store activations (communication) in the consumer's emotions" Several studies have been conducted on the consumer behavior. This study aims to analyze and understand which factors are important to consumers’ emotions when the purchase decision occurs, the brand awareness, brand loyalty and the campaigns/activations’ impact in the above factors. Two research surveys were conducted to realize this study, the first online and the other was an interview to the Agency Up Partner who conceived and put into practice this Fitness campaign. First of all, was the consumer’s survey, a survey with 100 answers, to understand which factors are taken into account when a campaign in-store is held, in which the atmosphere is mainly used to arouse consumer’s desire to purchase, and also emotions. Second, the interview with the agency was realized to find out on what they were based on when they delineate it, and if the raise of emotions was taken into account in the origin of it. Concluding, emotions have a significant impact on formation of consumer in-store behavior, satisfaction and loyalty. As we could assay through of how this Fitness campaign was carried out as well as the optimal feedback received by consumers, improved attention over in-store marketing activity strongly influences consumer behavior at the point of purchase. “Sport Zone: A new store concept where the love for sports is combined with functionality”

Firing and training costs and labour market segmentation

This dissertation consists of three essays on the labour market impact of firing and training costs. The modelling framework resorts to the search and matching literature. The first chapter introduces firing costs, both liner and non-linear, in a new Keynesian model, analysing business cycle effects for different wage rigidity degrees. The second chapter adds training costs in a model of a segmented labour market, accessing the interaction between these two features and the skill composition of the labour force. Finally, the third chapter analyses empirically some of the issues raised in the second chapter.

Land of the rising soy an internationalization plan for nutre to the Japanese Soy milk market

The present work project studies the next step in the internationalization process of Shoyce, the soy milk products brand of Nutre. In order to select the best target market in the Asia-Pacific for Nutre to export, a sequential screening process was developed using two complementary approaches: preliminary country screening and country ranking, followed by an in-depth analysis of the country ranking first. The analysis revealed Japan as the most attractive country for Shoyce’s international expansion. Potential entry modes in the Japanese soy milk market were then evaluated, whereby direct exporting via a local distributor was found to be the most appropriate.

The Beglocal framework applied to B2C E-commerce

This case-study examined the use of the BeGloCal Framework applied to B2C E-commerce, for a fast moving consumer goods European manufacturing firm. It explains how the framework supported the team within the company to identify the right local market as to where to start the project, the problem for the company was to find the most appealing area to invest resources. By going through all the steps of the framework the findings led the company to London (Kensington and Chelsea). It shows how managers should act when they have to find a trade-off between standardization and adaptation.