Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

A review of power laws in real life phenomena

Power law distributions, also known as heavy tail distributions, model distinct real life phenomena in the areas of biology, demography, computer science, economics, information theory, language, and astronomy, amongst others. In this paper, it is presented a review of the literature having in mind applications and possible explanations for the use of power laws in real phenomena. We also unravel some controversies around power laws.

Fractional Order Description of DNA

This study addresses the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and proposes a procedure based on the association of statistics, information theory, signal processing, Fourier analysis and fractional calculus for describing fundamental characteristics of the DNA. In a first phase the 24 chromosomes of the Human are evaluated. In a second phase, 10 chromosomes for different species are also processed and the results compared. The results reveal invariance in the description and close resemblances with fractional Brownian motion.

Object transportation by multiple mobile robots controlled by attractor dynamics: theory and implementation

Dynamical systems theory is used as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for teams of mobile robots, that must transport a large object and simultaneously avoid collisions with (either static or dynamic) obstacles. Here we demonstrate in simulations and implementations in real robots that it is possible to simplify the architectures presented in previous work and to extend the approach to teams of n robots. The robots have no prior knowledge of the environment. The motion of each robot is controlled by a time series of asymptotical stable states. The attractor dynamics permits the integration of information from various sources in a graded manner. As a result, the robots show a strikingly smooth an stable team behaviour.

Group decision making for selection of an information system in a business context

The main objective of this work is to report on the development of a multi-criteria methodology to support the assessment and selection of an Information System (IS) framework in a business context. The objective is to select a technological partner that provides the engine to be the basis for the development of a customized application for shrinkage reduction on the supply chains management. Furthermore, the proposed methodology di ers from most of the ones previously proposed in the sense that 1) it provides the decision makers with a set of pre-defined criteria along with their description and suggestions on how to measure them and 2)it uses a continuous scale with two reference levels and thus no normalization of the valuations is required. The methodology here proposed is has been designed to be easy to understand and use, without a specific support of a decision making analyst.

Fractional Analysis of the DNA Information

Proceedings of the 12th Conference on 'Dynamical Systems -Theory and Applications'

Price-setting dynamical duopoly with incomplete information

We consider a price competition in a duopoly with substitutable goods, linear and symmetric demand. There is a firm (F 1) that chooses first the price p 1 of its good; the other firm (F 2) observes p 1 and then chooses the price p 2 of its good. The conclusions of this price-setting dynamical duopoly are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We compare the ex-ante firms’ expected profits with the ex-post firms’ profits.

Interpretative research in information systems: two qualitative research design projects

In a scientific research project is important to define the underlying philosophical orientation of the project, because this will influence the choices made in respect of scientific methods used, as well as the way they will be applied. It is crucial, therefore, that the philosophy and research design strategy are consistent with each other. These questions become even more relevant in qualitative research. Historically, the interpretive research philosophy is more associated to the scientific areas of social sciences and humanities where the subjectivity inherent to human intervention is more explicitly defined. Information systems field are, primarily, trapped in computer science field, though it also integrates issues related with management and organizations field. This shift from a purely technological guidance for the consideration of the problems of management and organizations has fostered the rise of research projects according to the interpretive philosophy and using qualitative methods. This paper explores the importance of alignment between the epistemological orientation and research design strategy, in qualitative research projects. As a result, it is presented two PhD projects, with different research design strategies, that are being developed in the technology and information systems field, in the light of the interpretive paradigm.