Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Quantification of endocrine disruptors and pesticides in water by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Method validation using weighted linear regression schemes

Amulti-residue methodology based on a solid phase extraction followed by gas chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry was developed for trace analysis of 32 compounds in water matrices, including estrogens and several pesticides from different chemical families, some of them with endocrine disrupting properties. Matrix standard calibration solutions were prepared by adding known amounts of the analytes to a residue-free sample to compensate matrix-induced chromatographic response enhancement observed for certain pesticides. Validation was done mainly according to the International Conference on Harmonisation recommendations, as well as some European and American validation guidelines with specifications for pesticides analysis and/or GC–MS methodology. As the assumption of homoscedasticity was not met for analytical data, weighted least squares linear regression procedure was applied as a simple and effective way to counteract the greater influence of the greater concentrations on the fitted regression line, improving accuracy at the lower end of the calibration curve. The method was considered validated for 31 compounds after consistent evaluation of the key analytical parameters: specificity, linearity, limit of detection and quantification, range, precision, accuracy, extraction efficiency, stability and robustness.

Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Time and Efficiency of Soil Vapor Extraction

The prediction of the time and the efficiency of the remediation of contaminated soils using soil vapor extraction remain a difficult challenge to the scientific community and consultants. This work reports the development of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to predict the remediation time and efficiency of soil vapor extractions performed in soils contaminated separately with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene, and perchloroethylene. The results demonstrated that the artificial neural network approach presents better performances when compared with multiple linear regression models. The artificial neural network model allowed an accurate prediction of remediation time and efficiency based on only soil and pollutants characteristics, and consequently allowing a simple and quick previous evaluation of the process viability.

Predicting Xerostomia induced by IMRT treatments: A logistic regression approach

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments used against cancer. Radiotherapy uses radiation to destroy cancerous cells trying, at the same time, to minimize the damages in healthy tissues. The planning of a radiotherapy treatment is patient dependent, resulting in a lengthy trial and error procedure until a treatment complying as most as possible with the medical prescription is found. Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) is one technique of radiation treatment that allows the achievement of a high degree of conformity between the area to be treated and the dose absorbed by healthy tissues. Nevertheless, it is still not possible to eliminate completely the potential treatments’ side-effects. In this retrospective study we use the clinical data from patients with head-and-neck cancer treated at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology of Coimbra and explore the possibility of classifying new and untreated patients according to the probability of xerostomia 12 months after the beginning of IMRT treatments by using a logistic regression approach. The results obtained show that the classifier presents a high discriminative ability in predicting the binary response “at risk for xerostomia at 12 months”

Disposable immunosensor using a simple method for oriented antibody immobilization for label-free real-time detection of an oxidative stress biomarker implicated in cancer diseases

This work proposes a novel approach for a suitable orientation of antibodies (Ab) on an immunosensing platform, applied here to the determination of 8-hydroxy-2′-deoxyguanosine (8OHdG), a biomarker of oxidative stress that has been associated to chronic diseases, such as cancer. The anti-8OHdG was bound to an amine modified gold support through its Fc region after activation of its carboxylic functions. Non-oriented approaches of Ab binding to the platform were tested in parallel, in order to show that the presented methodology favored Ab/Ag affinity and immunodetection of the antigen. The immunosensor design was evaluated by quartz-crystal microbalance with dissipation, atomic force microscopy, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and square-wave voltammetry. EIS was also a suitable technique to follow the analytical behavior of the device against 8OHdG. The affinity binding between 8OHdG and the antibody immobilized in the gold modified platform increased the charge transfer resistance across the electrochemical set-up. The observed behavior was linear from 0.02 to 7.0 ng/mL of 8OHdG concentrations. The interference from glucose, urea and creatinine was found negligible. An attempt of application to synthetic samples was also successfully conducted. Overall, the presented approach enabled the production of suitably oriented Abs over a gold platform by means of a much simpler process than other oriented-Ab binding approaches described in the literature, as far as we know, and was successful in terms of analytical features and sample application.

Chitosan/AuNPs Modified Graphene Electrochemical Sensor for Label-Free Human Chorionic Gonadotropin Detection

A new immunosensor is presented for human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), made by electrodepositing chitosan/gold-nanoparticles over graphene screen-printed electrode (SPE). The antibody was covalently bound to CS via its Fc-terminal. The assembly was controlled by electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and followed by Fourier Transformed Infrared (FTIR). The hCG-immunosensor displayed linear response against the logarithm-hCG concentration for 0.1–25 ng/mL with limit of detection of 0.016 ng/mL. High selectivity was observed in blank urine and successful detection of hCG was also achieved in spiked samples of real urine from pregnant woman. The immunosensor showed good detection capability, simplicity of fabrication, low-cost, high sensitivity and selectivity.

Disposable immunosensor with simple antibody orientation for label-free real-time detection of a cancer biomarker

This work proposes a novel approach for a suitable orientation of antibodies (Ab) on an immunosensing platform, applied here to the determination of 8-hydroxy-2’-deoxyguanosine (8OHdG), a biomarker of oxidative stress that has been associated to chronic diseases, such as cancer. The Anti-8OHdG was bound to an amine modified gold support through its Fc region after activation of its carboxylic functions. Non-oriented approaches of Ab binding to the platform were tested in parallel, in order to show that the presented proposal favored Ab/Ag affinity. The immunosensor design was evaluated by Quartz-Crystal microbalance with Dissipation, Atomic Force Microscopy, Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and Square-Wave Voltammetry. EIS was also a suitable technique to follow the analytical behavior of the device against 8OHdG. The affinity binding between 8OHdG and the antibody immobilized in the gold modified platform increased the charged transfer resistance across the electrochemical sep-up. The observed behavior was linear from 0.02 to 7.0 ng/mL of 8OHdG concentrations. The interference from Glucose, Urea and Creatinine was found negligible. An attempt of application to synthetic samples was also successfully conducted. Overall, the presented approach enabled the production of suitably oriented Abs over a gold platform by means of a much simpler process than other oriented-Ab binding approaches described in the literature, as far as we know, and was successful in terms of analytical features and sample application.

Label-free human chorionic gonadotropin detection at picogram levels using oriented antibodies bound to graphene screen-printed electrodes

Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) is a key diagnostic marker of pregnancy and an important biomarker for cancers in the prostate, ovaries and bladder and therefore of great importance in diagnosis. For this purpose, a new immunosensor of screen-printed electrodes (SPEs) is presented here. The device was fabricated by introducing a polyaniline (PANI) conductive layer, via in situ electropolymerization of aniline, onto a screen-printed graphene support. The PANI-coated graphene acts as the working electrode of a three terminal electrochemical sensor. The working electrode is functionalised with anti-hCG, by means of a simple process that enabled oriented antibody binding to the PANI layer. The antibody was attached to PANI following activation of the –COOH group at the Fc terminal. Functionalisation of the electrode was analysed and optimized using Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS). Chemical modification of the surface was characterised using Fourier transform infrared, and Raman spectroscopy with confocal microscopy. The graphene–SPE–PANI devices displayed linear responses to hCG in EIS assays from 0.001 to 50 ng mL−1 in real urine, with a detection limit of 0.286 pg mL−1. High selectivity was observed with respect to the presence of the constituent components of urine (urea, creatinine, magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, sodium dihydrogen phosphate, ammonium chloride, potassium sulphate and sodium chloride) at their normal levels, with a negligible sensor response to these chemicals. Successful detection of hCG was also achieved in spiked samples of real urine from a pregnant woman. The immunosensor developed is a promising tool for point-of-care detection of hCG, due to its excellent detection capability, simplicity of fabrication, low-cost, high sensitivity and selectivity.

Specific label-free and real-time detection of oxidized low density lipoprotein (oxLDL) using an immunosensor with three monoclonal antibodies

Increased levels of plasma oxLDL, which is the oxidized fraction of Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), are associated with atherosclerosis, an inflammatory disease, and the subsequent development of severe cardiovascular diseases that are today a major cause of death in modern countries. It is therefore important to find a reliable and fast assay to determine oxLDL in serum. A new immunosensor employing three monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against oxLDL is proposed in this work as a quick and effective way to monitor oxLDL. The oxLDL was first employed to produce anti-oxLDL monoclonal antibodies by hybridoma cells that were previously obtained. The immunosensor was set-up by selfassembling cysteamine (Cyst) on a gold (Au) layer (4 mm diameter) of a disposable screen-printed electrode. Three mAbs were allowed to react with N-hydroxysuccinimide (NHS) and ethyl(dimethylaminopropyl)carbodiimide (EDAC), and subsequently incubated in the Au/Cys. Albumin from bovine serum (BSA) was immobilized further to ensure that other molecules apart from oxLDL could not bind to the electrode surface. All steps were followed by various characterization techniques such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and square wave voltammetry (SWV). The analytical operation of the immunosensor was obtained by incubating the sensing layer of the device in oxLDL for 15 minutes, prior to EIS and SWV. This was done by using standard oxLDL solutions prepared in foetal calf serum, in order to simulate patient's plasma with circulating oxLDL. A sensitive response was observed from 0.5 to 18.0 mg mL 1 . The device was successfully applied to determine the oxLDL fraction in real serum, without prior dilution or necessary chemical treatment. The use of multiple monoclonal antibodies on a biosensing platform seemed to be a successful approach to produce a specific response towards a complex multi-analyte target, correlating well with the level of oxLDL within atherosclerosis disease, in a simple, fast and cheap way.

A label-free DNA aptamer-based impedance biosensor for the detection of E. coli outer membrane proteins

A label-free DNA aptamer-based impedance biosensor for the detection of E. coli outer membrane proteins (OMPs) was developed. Two single stranded DNA sequences were tested as recognition elements and compared. The aptamer capture probes were immobilized, with and without 6-mercapto-1-hexanol (MCH) on a gold electrode. Each step of the modification process was characterized by Faradaic impedance spectroscopy (FIS). A linear relationship between the electron-transfer resistance (Ret) and E. coli OMPs concentration was demonstrated in a dynamic detection range of 1 × 10−7–2 × 10−6 M. Moreover, the aptasensor showed selectivity despite the presence of other possible water contaminates and could be regenerated under low pH condition. The developed biosensor shows great potential to be incorporated in a biochip and used for in situ detection of E. coli OMPs in water samples.

Label-free Detection of Microcystin-LR in Waters Using Real-Time Potentiometric Biosensors Based on Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes Imprinted Polymers

Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) is a dangerous toxin found in environmental waters, quantified by high performance liquid chromatography and/or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. Quick, low cost and on-site analysis is thus required to ensure human safety and wide screening programs. This work proposes label-free potentiometric sensors made of solid-contact electrodes coated with a surface imprinted polymer on the surface of Multi-Walled Carbon NanoTubes (CNTs) incorporated in a polyvinyl chloride membrane. The imprinting effect was checked by using non-imprinted materials. The MC-LR sensitive sensors were evaluated, characterized and applied successfully in spiked environmental waters. The presented method offered the advantages of low cost, portability, easy operation and suitability for adaptation to flow methods.

Isoflavones in food supplements: chemical profile, label accordance and permeability study in Caco-2 cells

Consumers nowadays are playing an active role in their health-care. A special case is the increasing number of women, who are reluctant to use exogenous hormone therapy for the treatment of menopausal symptoms and are looking for complementary therapies. However, food supplements are not clearly regulated in Europe. The EFSA has only recently begun to address the issues of botanical safety and purity regulation, leading to a variability of content, standardization, dosage, and purity of available products. In this study, isoflavones (puerarin, daidzin, genistin, daidzein, glycitein, genistein, formononetin, prunetin, and biochanin A) from food supplements (n = 15) for menopausal symptoms relief are evaluated and compared with the labelled information. Only four supplements complied with the recommendations made by the EC on the tolerable thresholds. The intestinal bioavailability of these compounds was investigated using Caco-2 cells. The apparent permeability coefficients of the selected isoflavonoids across the Caco-2 cells were affected by the isoflavone concentration and product matrix.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Using neural networks and support vector regression to relate marchetti dilatometer test parameters and maximum shear modulus

In the last two decades, small strain shear modulus became one of the most important geotechnical parameters to characterize soil stiffness. Finite element analysis have shown that in-situ stiffness of soils and rocks is much higher than what was previously thought and that stress-strain behaviour of these materials is non-linear in most cases with small strain levels, especially in the ground around retaining walls, foundations and tunnels, typically in the order of 10−2 to 10−4 of strain. Although the best approach to estimate shear modulus seems to be based in measuring seismic wave velocities, deriving the parameter through correlations with in-situ tests is usually considered very useful for design practice.The use of Neural Networks for modeling systems has been widespread, in particular within areas where the great amount of available data and the complexity of the systems keeps the problem very unfriendly to treat following traditional data analysis methodologies. In this work, the use of Neural Networks and Support Vector Regression is proposed to estimate small strain shear modulus for sedimentary soils from the basic or intermediate parameters derived from Marchetti Dilatometer Test. The results are discussed and compared with some of the most common available methodologies for this evaluation.

Analyzing Multiple Outcomes: Is it Really Worth the use of Multivariate Linear Regression?

In health related research it is common to have multiple outcomes of interest in a single study. These outcomes are often analysed separately, ignoring the correlation between them. One would expect that a multivariate approach would be a more efficient alternative to individual analyses of each outcome. Surprisingly, this is not always the case. In this article we discuss different settings of linear models and compare the multivariate and univariate approaches. We show that for linear regression models, the estimates of the regression parameters associated with covariates that are shared across the outcomes are the same for the multivariate and univariate models while for outcome-specific covariates the multivariate model performs better in terms of efficiency.