Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Auditorias energéticas em ambiente industrial

Gestão de Energia e Sustentabilidade são os pilares em que assenta esta dissertação, realizada no âmbito da Energia Elétrica em Ambiente Industrial. Neste sentido, deve entender-se “Gestão de Energia” como o planeamento de operações nas unidades de produção e de consumo. Tem como objetivos a conservação dos recursos, proteção climática e redução de custos, para que seja possível o acesso permanente à energia de que necessitamos. “Sustentabilidade”, por definição, é uma caraterística ou condição de um processo ou de um sistema que permite a sua permanência, até um determinado nível, por um determinado prazo. A Indústria Têxtil, da região do Vale do Ave, por ser extensa e muito heterogénea, quer na qualidade, quer na dimensão e nos recursos que utiliza, apresentou-se como uma oportunidade para aplicar os conhecimentos adquiridos, nas diversas disciplinas do Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica - Área de Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia e como meio condutor à tentativa de optimização e racionalização do consumo de Energia Elétrica no Sector. O modelo encontrado para dar uma resposta satisfatória ao inicialmente proposto foi a Auditoria Energética. Neste sentido, foram realizadas visitas às instalações industriais, para o levantamento e recolha de informação, que posteriormente viria a ser analisada e, com base na mesma, tentou apresentar-se um conjunto de soluções que visassem a eficiência Energética do sector. Com o decorrer das visitas, surgiu a necessidade de criar um modelo, que servisse de guia da auditoria. Algo que seria um bloco de notas, mas específico, de forma a não perder a informação recolhida. Então foi desenvolvida uma aplicação para IPAD/IPHONE, o que permite também a recolha e armazenamento de fotografias, que aqui tem um papel fundamental. Salienta-se que as expectativas foram ao encontro do esperado, pois o que se encontrou foi um número significativo de empresas a precisar deste contributo. Atuando no “combate” ao consumo desnecessário e ao desperdício, é estar a contribuir ativa e positivamente, no desenvolvimento próspero da temática de Sustentabilidade Energética.

Demand response programs definition supported by clustering and classification techniques

The growing importance and influence of new resources connected to the power systems has caused many changes in their operation. Environmental policies and several well know advantages have been made renewable based energy resources largely disseminated. These resources, including Distributed Generation (DG), are being connected to lower voltage levels where Demand Response (DR) must be considered too. These changes increase the complexity of the system operation due to both new operational constraints and amounts of data to be processed. Virtual Power Players (VPP) are entities able to manage these resources. Addressing these issues, this paper proposes a methodology to support VPP actions when these act as a Curtailment Service Provider (CSP) that provides DR capacity to a DR program declared by the Independent System Operator (ISO) or by the VPP itself. The amount of DR capacity that the CSP can assure is determined using data mining techniques applied to a database which is obtained for a large set of operation scenarios. The paper includes a case study based on 27,000 scenarios considering a diversity of distributed resources in a 33 bus distribution network.

Definition of MV Load Diagrams via Weighted Evidence Accumulation Clustering using Subsampling

A definition of medium voltage (MV) load diagrams was made, based on the data base knowledge discovery process. Clustering techniques were used as support for the agents of the electric power retail markets to obtain specific knowledge of their customers’ consumption habits. Each customer class resulting from the clustering operation is represented by its load diagram. The Two-step clustering algorithm and the WEACS approach based on evidence accumulation (EAC) were applied to an electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database in order to form the customer’s classes and to find a set of representative consumption patterns. The WEACS approach is a clustering ensemble combination approach that uses subsampling and that weights differently the partitions in the co-association matrix. As a complementary step to the WEACS approach, all the final data partitions produced by the different variations of the method are combined and the Ward Link algorithm is used to obtain the final data partition. Experiment results showed that WEACS approach led to better accuracy than many other clustering approaches. In this paper the WEACS approach separates better the customer’s population than Two-step clustering algorithm.

A user-centered interface for scheduling problem definition

In this paper we present a user-centered interface for a scheduling system. The purpose of this interface is to provide graphical and interactive ways of defining a scheduling problem. To create such user interface an evaluation-centered user interaction development method was adopted: the star life cycle. The created prototype comprises the Task Module and the Scheduling Problem Module. The first one allows users to define a sequence of operations, i.e., a task. The second one enables a scheduling problem definition, which consists in a set of tasks. Both modules are equipped with a set of real time validations to assure the correct definition of the necessary data input for the scheduling module of the system. The usability evaluation allowed us to measure the ease of interaction and observe the different forms of interaction provided by each participant, namely the reactions to the real time validation mechanism.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

An integrated system to support electricity tariff contract definition

This paper presents an integrated system that helps both retail companies and electricity consumers on the definition of the best retail contracts and tariffs. This integrated system is composed by a Decision Support System (DSS) based on a Consumer Characterization Framework (CCF). The CCF is based on data mining techniques, applied to obtain useful knowledge about electricity consumers from large amounts of consumption data. This knowledge is acquired following an innovative and systematic approach able to identify different consumers’ classes, represented by a load profile, and its characterization using decision trees. The framework generates inputs to use in the knowledge base and in the database of the DSS. The rule sets derived from the decision trees are integrated in the knowledge base of the DSS. The load profiles together with the information about contracts and electricity prices form the database of the DSS. This DSS is able to perform the classification of different consumers, present its load profile and test different electricity tariffs and contracts. The final outputs of the DSS are a comparative economic analysis between different contracts and advice about the most economic contract to each consumer class. The presentation of the DSS is completed with an application example using a real data base of consumers from the Portuguese distribution company.

Integration of e-learning systems with repositories of learning objects

This paper describes a communication model to integrate repositories of programming problems with other e-Learning software components. The motivation for this work comes from the EduJudge project that aims to connect an existing repository of programming problems to learning management systems. When trying to use the existing repositories of learning objects we realized that they are mainly specialized search engines and lack features for integration with other e-Learning systems. With this model we intend to clarify the main features of a programming problem repository, in order to enable the design and development of software components that use it. The two main points of this model are the definition of programming problems as learning objects and the definition of the core functions exposed by the repository. In both cases, this model follows the existing specifications of the IMS standard and proposes extensions to deal with the special requirements of automatic evaluation and grading of programming exercises. In the definition of programming problems as learning objects we introduced a new schema for meta-data. This schema is used to represent meta-data related to automatic evaluation that cannot be conveniently represented using the standard: the type of automatic evaluation; the requirements of the evaluation engine; or the roles of different assets - tests cases, program solutions, etc. In the definition of the core functions we used two different web services flavours - SOAP and REST - and described each function as an operation for each type of interface. We describe also the data types of the arguments of each operation. These data types consist mainly on learning objects and their identifications, but include also usage reports and queries using XQuery.

Conditional probability applied to the definition of limestone geochemical facies: A new Methodological Approach

A new method, based on linear correlation and phase diagrams was successfully developed for processes like the sedimentary process, where the deposition phase can have different time duration - represented by repeated values in a series - and where the erosion can play an important rule deleting values of a series. The sampling process itself can be the cause of repeated values - large strata twice sampled - or deleted values: tiny strata fitted between two consecutive samples. What we developed was a mathematical procedure which, based upon the depth chemical composition evolution, allows the establishment of frontiers as well as the periodicity of different sedimentary environments. The basic tool isn't more than a linear correlation analysis which allow us to detect the existence of eventual evolution rules, connected with cyclical phenomena within time series (considering the space assimilated to time), with the final objective of prevision. A very interesting discovery was the phenomenon of repeated sliding windows that represent quasi-cycles of a series of quasi-periods. An accurate forecast can be obtained if we are inside a quasi-cycle (it is possible to predict the other elements of the cycle with the probability related with the number of repeated and deleted points). We deal with an innovator methodology, reason why it's efficiency is being tested in some case studies, with remarkable results that shows it's efficacy. Keywords: sedimentary environments, sequence stratigraphy, data analysis, time-series, conditional probability.

Two new power indices based on winning coalitions

Deegan and Packel (1979) and Holler (1982) proposed two power indices for simple games: the Deegan–Packel index and the Public Good Index. In the definition of these indices, only minimal winning coalitions are taken into account. Using similar arguments, we define two new power indices. These new indices are defined taking into account only those winning coalitions that do not contain null players. The results obtained with the different power indices are compared by means of two real-world examples taken from the political field.