Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Supporting real-time parallel task models with work-stealing

Dynamic parallel scheduling using work-stealing has gained popularity in academia and industry for its good performance, ease of implementation and theoretical bounds on space and time. Cores treat their own double-ended queues (deques) as a stack, pushing and popping threads from the bottom, but treat the deque of another randomly selected busy core as a queue, stealing threads only from the top, whenever they are idle. However, this standard approach cannot be directly applied to real-time systems, where the importance of parallelising tasks is increasing due to the limitations of multiprocessor scheduling theory regarding parallelism. Using one deque per core is obviously a source of priority inversion since high priority tasks may eventually be enqueued after lower priority tasks, possibly leading to deadline misses as in this case the lower priority tasks are the candidates when a stealing operation occurs. Our proposal is to replace the single non-priority deque of work-stealing with ordered per-processor priority deques of ready threads. The scheduling algorithm starts with a single deque per-core, but unlike traditional work-stealing, the total number of deques in the system may now exceed the number of processors. Instead of stealing randomly, cores steal from the highest priority deque.

Optimization of River Water Quality Surveys by Multivariate Analysis of Physicochemical, Bacteriological and Ecotoxicological Data

This study aims to optimize the water quality monitoring of a polluted watercourse (Leça River, Portugal) through the principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). These statistical methodologies were applied to physicochemical, bacteriological and ecotoxicological data (with the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri and the green alga Chlorella vulgaris) obtained with the analysis of water samples monthly collected at seven monitoring sites and during five campaigns (February, May, June, August, and September 2006). The results of some variables were assigned to water quality classes according to national guidelines. Chemical and bacteriological quality data led to classify Leça River water quality as “bad” or “very bad”. PCA and CA identified monitoring sites with similar pollution pattern, giving to site 1 (located in the upstream stretch of the river) a distinct feature from all other sampling sites downstream. Ecotoxicity results corroborated this classification thus revealing differences in space and time. The present study includes not only physical, chemical and bacteriological but also ecotoxicological parameters, which broadens new perspectives in river water characterization. Moreover, the application of PCA and CA is very useful to optimize water quality monitoring networks, defining the minimum number of sites and their location. Thus, these tools can support appropriate management decisions.

Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

Dynamic Analysis and Pattern Visualization of Forest Fires

This paper analyses forest fires in the perspective of dynamical systems. Forest fires exhibit complex correlations in size, space and time, revealing features often present in complex systems, such as the absence of a characteristic length-scale, or the emergence of long range correlations and persistent memory. This study addresses a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, during the period from 1980 up to 2012. The data is analysed in an annual basis, modelling the occurrences as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. First, we consider mutual information to correlate annual patterns. We use visualization trees, generated by hierarchical clustering algorithms, in order to compare and to extract relationships among the data. Second, we adopt the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) visualization tool. MDS generates maps where each object corresponds to a point. Objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to identify forest fire patterns.

Contraste e alteridade na viagem contemporânea

No mundo contemporâneo globalizado, definido pela sua qualidade essencialmente fluida e instável, o carácter distintivo da viagem parece dissolver-se face à contracção do planeta, à economia das ―trocas simbólicas‖ e a um alegado processo de diluição das diferenças e de homogeneização cultural. Com efeito, a mediatização da sociedade e a proliferação icónica contemporâneas produzem um aparente estado de saturação da geografia real e de multiplicação de lugares enquanto representações e imagens, permitindo pôr em causa a própria necessidade e urgência de deslocação, bem como admitir a abolição do ―estatuto de privilégio‖ de certos lugares e a derradeira quebra no conceito aurático das férias e das viagens, tradicionalmente assente em antinomias cruciais entre o quotidiano/familiar e o diferente/extraordinário. O presente artigo propõe-se abordar o paradigma da mobilidade contemporânea, nomeadamente no que diz respeito à traumática aniquilação do espaço e do tempo e ao seu impacto fortemente disruptivo sobre a dimensão ontológica de uma prática cultural cujo poder aurático se encontra tradicionalmente relacionado com a conquista de distâncias, a percepção de diferenças e a experiência de alteridade. O artigo pretende, por outro lado, refutar a declaração pós-moderna de que a familiarização com o outro conduz a uma diminuição do potencial de choque cultural no turismo contemporâneo, discutindo a relevância e a prevalência da busca de contraste e formas de vivência de alteridade no complexo novelo de motivações da viagem turística contemporânea.

Position paper on time and event-triggered communication services in the context of e-manufacturing

Modern factories are complex systems where advances in networking and information technologies are opening new ways towards higher efficiency. Such move is being driven by market rules with ever-increasing competition levels, in search for faster time-to-market, improved process yield, non-stop operations, flexible manufacturing and tighter supply-chain coupling. All these aims present a common requirement, i.e. a realtime flow of information, from the plant-floor up to the management, maintenance, suppliers and clients, to support accurate monitoring and control of the factory. This stresses the importance achieved by the communication infrastructure in modern manufacturing industry. This paper presents the authors view concerning the current trends in modern factory communication systems. It addresses the problems of seamlessly integrating different information flows with diverse requirements, mainly in terms of timeliness. In this aspect, the debate between event-triggered and time-triggered communication is revisited as well as the joint support for both types of traffic. Finally, a view of where factory communication systems are moving to is also presented, showing the impact of open and widely available technologies.

JamLab: augmenting sensornet testbeds with realistic and controlled interference generation

Radio interference drastically affects the performance of sensor-net communications, leading to packet loss and reduced energy-efficiency. As an increasing number of wireless devices operates on the same ISM frequencies, there is a strong need for understanding and debugging the performance of existing sensornet protocols under interference. Doing so requires a low-cost flexible testbed infrastructure that allows the repeatable generation of a wide range of interference patterns. Unfortunately, to date, existing sensornet testbeds lack such capabilities, and do not permit to study easily the coexistence problems between devices sharing the same frequencies. This paper addresses the current lack of such an infrastructure by using off-the-shelf sensor motes to record and playback interference patterns as well as to generate customizable and repeat-able interference in real-time. We propose and develop JamLab: a low-cost infrastructure to augment existing sensornet testbeds with accurate interference generation while limiting the overhead to a simple upload of the appropriate software. We explain how we tackle the hardware limitations and get an accurate measurement and regeneration of interference, and we experimentally evaluate the accuracy of JamLab with respect to time, space, and intensity. We further use JamLab to characterize the impact of interference on sensornet MAC protocols.

Run-time defragmentation for dynamically reconfigurable hardware

Reconfigurable computing experienced a considerable expansion in the last few years, due in part to the fast run-time partial reconfiguration features offered by recent SRAM-based Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), which allowed the implementation in real-time of dynamic resource allocation strategies, with multiple independent functions from different applications sharing the same logic resources in the space and temporal domains. However, when the sequence of reconfigurations to be performed is not predictable, the efficient management of the logic space available becomes the greatest challenge posed to these systems. Resource allocation decisions have to be made concurrently with system operation, taking into account function priorities and optimizing the space currently available. As a consequence of the unpredictability of this allocation procedure, the logic space becomes fragmented, with many small areas of free resources failing to satisfy most requests and so remaining unused. A rearrangement of the currently running functions is therefore necessary, so as to obtain enough contiguous space to implement incoming functions, avoiding the spreading of their components and the resulting degradation of system performance. A novel active relocation procedure for Configurable Logic Blocks (CLBs) is herein presented, able to carry out online rearrangements, defragmenting the available FPGA resources without disturbing functions currently running.

A Novel Run-Time Monitoring Architecture for Safe and Efficient Inline Monitoring

20th International Conference on Reliable Software Technologies - Ada-Europe 2015 (Ada-Europe 2015), Madrid, Spain.