Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Reliability of nasal auscultation and their relation to middle ear condition – a clinical interest to pediatrics respiratory physiotherapy

Background: Acute respiratory infections are usual in children under three years old occurring in upper respiratory tract, having an impact on child and caregiver’s quality of life predisposing to otitis media or bronchiolitis. There are few valid and reliable measures to determine the child’s respiratory condition and to guide the physiotherapy intervention. Aim: To assess the intra and inter rater reliability of nasal auscultation, to analyze the relation between sounds’ classification and middle ear’s pressure and compliance as well as with the Clinical Severity Score. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was composed by 125 nursery children aged up to three years old. Tympanometry, pulmonary and nasal auscultation and application of Clinical Severity Score were performed to each child. Nasal auscultation sounds’ were recorded and sent to 3 blinded experts, that classified, as “obstructed” and “unobstructed”, with a 48 hours interval, in order to analyze inter and intra rater reliability. Results: Nasal auscultation revealed a substantial inter and intra rater reliability (=0,749 and evaluator A - K= 0,691; evaluator B - K= 0,605 and evaluator C - K= 0,724, respectively). Both ears’ pressure was significantly lower in children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound when compared with an “obstructed” nasal sound (t=-3,599, p<0,001 in left ear; t=-2,258, p=0,026 in right ear). Compliance in both ears was significantly lower in children with an "obstructed" nasal sound when compared with “unobstructed” nasal sound (t=-2,728, p=0,007 in left ear; t=-3,830, p<0,001 in right ear). There was a statistically significant association between sounds’ classification and tympanograms types in both ear’s (=11,437, p=0,003 in left ear; =13,535, p=0,001 in right ear). There was a trend to children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound that had a lower clinical severity score when compared with “obstructed” children. Conclusion: It was observed a good intra and substantial inter reliability for nasal auscultation. Nasal auscultation sounds’ classification was related to middle ears’ pressure and compliance.

Ventiladores pulmonares – Seleção, aquisição e confiabilidade metrológica

A saúde em Portugal vive hoje mudanças significativas. A criação de modelos de Gestão Empresarial em instituições públicas visa a melhor qualidade ao menor custo. A aquisição de equipamento médico, cada vez mais sofisticado, exige das instituições esforços redobrados. A necessidade de redução dos custos acoplada à necessidade de aquisição de tecnologias cada vez mais avançadas exige que as instituições tomem mediadas mais rigorosas para melhorar o processo de aquisição. É importante estabelecer desde o início de um processo de aquisição, as exatas necessidades da instituição, com um conjunto de especificações bem detalhado do produto a adquirir bem como um conjunto exigências que devem ser feitas perante os fornecedores que salvaguardem a instituição. O conhecimento do equipamento a adquirir facilita todo o processo. Assim é de extrema importância garantir o estudo bastante alargado do equipamento, permitindo à instituição uma melhor avaliação do equipamento, aquando da seleção do mesmo. A garantia da confiabilidade metrológica é outro ponto muito importante a ter em conta no processo, uma vez que o sucesso dos cuidados de saúde parte da confiança e segurança que transmitem aos seus utentes. O objetivo deste trabalho é o estudo de Ventiladores Pulmonares (VP) focando essencialmente na seleção e aquisição destes equipamentos. Neste estudo faz-se também um estudo dos procedimentos de avaliação da confiabilidade metrológica dos VP, tendo em vista a definição dos testes de verificação a serem efetuados ao longo do processo de aquisição. É normalizado o Caderno de Encargos (CE) e respetivas especificações/requisitos técnicos, tentando comprar de acordo com as reais necessidades da instituição, visando o menor desperdício e garantido a melhor qualidade.

Proposta de um modelo de avaliação de websites de turismo de habitação

actividade de turismo de habitação tem crescido de forma sustentada ao longo dos últimos anos em Portugal e o recurso à internet como canal de comercialização deste serviço tem substituído gradualmente os restantes canais mais tradicionais. No entanto, esta generalização do recurso a websites, nesta e noutras áreas da actividade económica, não tem sido sempre sinónimo de qualidade, justificando assim a procura de sistemas de avaliação deste tipo de produto de software, que possam ser aplicados sistemática e eficazmente. Nesse sentido, foi desenvolvido este trabalho, no propósito de conseguir um modelo de avaliação de websites, específico para o turismo de habitação, na convicção de que para áreas específicas se exigem abordagens específicas. A pesquisa por modelos orientados para esta actividade não produziu qualquer resultado, ao contrário de outras áreas onde já existem modelos adequados, como sejam a área académica e outras. Daí a necessidade de conjugar ideias e conceitos mais genéricos, de fontes diversas, com elementos específicos de turismo de habitação, no intuito de os combinar e adequar aos objectivos deste trabalho. Assim, a partir de elementos da Norma ISO 9126; de conceitos de usabilidade, funcionalidade, credibilidade, e outros; da opção por uma abordagem de desempenho empresarial; de modelos já existentes, embora direccionados para outras áreas; e de um modelo exploratório de carácter empírico entretanto desenvolvido, foi concebido e implementado um modelo que se caracteriza no essencial, por ser estruturado em três níveis, contemplar um conjunto de trinta e oito atributos em avaliação, com maior incidência naqueles relacionados com aspectos que se considera terem maior influência no desempenho da actividade económica subjacente, e que tem uma ponderação variável do seu impacto no resultado final. No intuito de dar flexibilidade ao modelo e de contrariar a carga subjectiva resultante do processo de ponderação do impacto de cada atributo avaliado, foram implementados no modelo três cenários alternativos com ponderações distintas, cada um valorizando determinado tipo de atributos e desvalorizando outros. Naturalmente que, aquando da implementação do modelo exploratório foram já retiradas algumas conclusões sobre o panorama geral, todavia o modelo definitivo veio dar-lhes maior consistência e pormenor.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Improving the reliability of WiDom in a single broadcast domain

WiDom is a previously proposed prioritized medium access control protocol for wireless channels. We present a modification to this protocol in order to improve its reliability. This modification has similarities with cooperative relaying schemes, but, in our protocol, all nodes can relay a carrier wave. The preliminary evaluation shows that, under transmission errors, a significant reduction on the number of failed tournaments can be achieved.

Reliability and availability in reconfigurable computing: a basis for a common solution

Dynamically reconfigurable SRAM-based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) enable the implementation of reconfigurable computing systems where several applications may be run simultaneously, sharing the available resources according to their own immediate functional requirements. To exclude malfunctioning due to faulty elements, the reliability of all FPGA resources must be guaranteed. Since resource allocation takes place asynchronously, an online structural test scheme is the only way of ensuring reliable system operation. On the other hand, this test scheme should not disturb the operation of the circuit, otherwise availability would be compromised. System performance is also influenced by the efficiency of the management strategies that must be able to dynamically allocate enough resources when requested by each application. As those resources are allocated and later released, many small free resource blocks are created, which are left unused due to performance and routing restrictions. To avoid wasting logic resources, the FPGA logic space must be defragmented regularly. This paper presents a non-intrusive active replication procedure that supports the proposed test methodology and the implementation of defragmentation strategies, assuring both the availability of resources and their perfect working condition, without disturbing system operation.

Optimization of antioxidants extraction from coffee silverskin, aroasting by-product, having in view a sustainable process

Coffee silverskin is a major roasting by-product that could be valued as a source of antioxidant compounds. The effect of the major variables (solvent polarity, temperature and extraction time) affecting the extraction yields of bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity of silverskin extracts was evaluated. The extracts composition varied significantly with the extraction conditions used. A factorial experimental design showed that the use of a hydroalcoholic solvent (50%:50%) at 40 °C for 60 min is a sustainable option to maximize the extraction yield of bioactive compounds and the antioxidant capacity of extracts. Using this set of conditions it was possible to obtain extracts containing total phenolics (302.5 ± 7.1 mg GAE/L), tannins (0.43 ± 0.06 mg TAE/L), and flavonoids (83.0 ± 1.4 mg ECE/L), exhibiting DPPHradical dot scavenging activity (326.0 ± 5.7 mg TE/L) and ferric reducing antioxidant power (1791.9 ± 126.3 mg SFE/L). These conditions allowed, in comparison with other “more effective” for some individual parameters, a cost reduction, saving time and energy.

Ferramentas para optimização da solução NGIN da PT Inovação

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

Association between dairy product intake and abdominal obesity in Azorean adolescents

BACKGROUND: Some studies have reported an inverse association between dairy product (DP) consumption and weight or fat mass loss. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to assess the association between DP intake and abdominal obesity (AO) among Azorean adolescents. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional analysis. A total of 903 adolescents (370 boys) aged 15--16 years was evaluated. Anthropometric measurements were collected (weight, height and waist circumference (WC)) and McCarthy’s cut-points were used to categorize WC. AO was defined when WC was X90th percentile. Adolescent food intake was assessed using a self-administered semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and DP intake was categorized in o2 and X2 servings/day. Data were analyzed separately for girls and boys, and logistical regression was used to estimate the association between DPs and AO adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The prevalence of AO was 54.9% (boys: 32.1% and girls: 70.7%, Po0.001). For boys and girls, DP consumption was 2.3±1.9 and 2.1±1.6 servings/day (P¼0.185), respectively. In both genders, the proportion of adolescents with WC o90th percentile was higher among individuals who reported a dairy intake of X2 servings/day compared with those with an intake o2 servings/day (boys: 71% vs 65% and girls: 36% vs 24%, Po0.05). After adjustments for confounders, two or more DP servings per day were a negative predictor of AO (odds ratio, 0.217; 95% confidence interval, 0.075 -- 0.633) only in boys. CONCLUSION: We found a protective association between DP intake and AO only in boys.

Caracterização do “warpage” e sua variabilidade no processo produtivo de encapsulamento de circuitos integrados

Nos últimos anos a indústria de semicondutores, nomeadamente a produção de memórias, tem sofrido uma grande evolução. A necessidade de baixar custos de produção, assim como de produzir sistemas mais complexos e com maior capacidade, levou à criação da tecnologia WLP (Wafer Level Packaging). Esta tecnologia permite a produção de sistemas mais pequenos, simplificar o fluxo do processo e providenciar uma redução significativa do custo final do produto. A WLP é uma tecnologia de encapsulamento de circuitos integrados quando ainda fazem parte de wafers (bolachas de silício), em contraste com o método tradicional em que os sistemas são individualizados previamente antes de serem encapsulados. Com o desenvolvimento desta tecnologia, surgiu a necessidade de melhor compreender o comportamento mecânico do mold compound (MC - polímero encapsulante) mais especificamente do warpage (empeno) de wafers moldadas. O warpage é uma característica deste produto e deve-se à diferença do coeficiente de expansão térmica entre o silício e o mold compound. Este problema é observável no produto através do arqueamento das wafers moldadas. O warpage de wafers moldadas tem grande impacto na manufatura. Dependendo da quantidade e orientação do warpage, o transporte, manipulação, bem como, a processamento das wafers podem tornar-se complicados ou mesmo impossíveis, o que se traduz numa redução de volume de produção e diminuição da qualidade do produto. Esta dissertação foi desenvolvida na Nanium S.A., empresa portuguesa líder mundial na tecnologia de WLP em wafers de 300mm e aborda a utilização da metodologia Taguchi, no estudo da variabilidade do processo de debond para o produto X. A escolha do processo e produto baseou-se numa análise estatística da variação e do impacto do warpage ao longo doprocesso produtivo. A metodologia Taguchi é uma metodologia de controlo de qualidade e permite uma aproximação sistemática num dado processo, combinando gráficos de controlo, controlo do processo/produto, e desenho do processo para alcançar um processo robusto. Os resultados deste método e a sua correta implementação permitem obter poupanças significativas nos processos com um impacto financeiro significativo. A realização deste projeto permitiu estudar e quantificar o warpage ao longo da linha de produção e minorar o impacto desta característica no processo de debond. Este projecto permitiu ainda a discussão e o alinhamento entre as diferentes áreas de produção no que toca ao controlo e a melhoria de processos. Conseguiu–se demonstrar que o método Taguchi é um método eficiente no que toca ao estudo da variabilidade de um processo e otimização de parâmetros. A sua aplicação ao processo de debond permitiu melhorar ou a fiabilidade do processo em termos de garantia da qualidade do produto, como ao nível do aumento de produção.

Study of the Reliability of Statistical Timing Analysis for Real-Time Systems

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.