Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Organization knowledge management change from a complex adaptive systems perpective with ability for ambidexeterity

We are working on the confluence of knowledge management, organizational memory and emergent knowledge with the lens of complex adaptive systems. In order to be fundamentally sustainable organizations search for an adaptive need for managing ambidexterity of day-to-day work and innovation. An organization is an entity of a systemic nature, composed of groups of people who interact to achieve common objectives, making it necessary to capture, store and share interactions knowledge with the organization, this knowledge can be generated in intra-organizational or inter-organizational level. The organizations have organizational memory of knowledge of supported on the Information technology and systems. Each organization, especially in times of uncertainty and radical changes, to meet the demands of the environment, needs timely and sized knowledge on the basis of tacit and explicit. This sizing is a learning process resulting from the interaction that emerges from the relationship between the tacit and explicit knowledge and which we are framing within an approach of Complex Adaptive Systems. The use of complex adaptive systems for building the emerging interdependent relationship, will produce emergent knowledge that will improve the organization unique developing.

Virtual power players demand response programs management based on locational marginal prices

Power systems have been suffering huge changes mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments. Virtual power players can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Resource management gains an increasing relevance in this competitive context, while demand side active role provides managers with increased demand elasticity. This makes demand response use more interesting and flexible, giving rise to a wide range of new opportunities.This paper proposes a methodology for managing demand response programs in the scope of virtual power players. The proposed method is based on the calculation of locational marginal prices (LMP). The evaluation of the impact of using demand response specific programs on the LMP value supports the manager decision concerning demand response use. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated in this paper using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

Zonal prices analysis supported by a data mining based methodology

A methodology based on data mining techniques to support the analysis of zonal prices in real transmission networks is proposed in this paper. The mentioned methodology uses clustering algorithms to group the buses in typical classes that include a set of buses with similar LMP values. Two different clustering algorithms have been used to determine the LMP clusters: the two-step and K-means algorithms. In order to evaluate the quality of the partition as well as the best performance algorithm adequacy measurements indices are used. The paper includes a case study using a Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) data base from the California ISO (CAISO) in order to identify zonal prices.

Electricity markets: transmission prices methods

In the context of electricity markets, transmission pricing is an important tool to achieve an efficient operation of the electricity system. The electricity market is influenced by several factors; however the transmission network management is one of the most important aspects, because the network is a natural monopoly. The transmission tariffs can help to regulate the market, for this reason transmission tariffs must follow strict criteria. This paper presents the following methods to tariff the use of transmission networks by electricity market players: Post-Stamp Method; MW-Mile Method Distribution Factors Methods; Tracing Methodology; Bialek’s Tracing Method and Locational Marginal Price. A nine bus transmission network is used to illustrate the application of the tariff methods.

Paul Auster and the music of change: building new stories

In the work of Paul Auster (Newark, 1947 - ), we find two main themes: the sense of loss and existential drift and the loneliness of the individual fully committed to the work of writing, as if he had been confined to the book that commands his life. However, this second theme is clearly the dominant one because the character's space of solitude may include its own wandering, because this wandering is also often performed inside the four walls of a room, just like it is narrated inside the space of the page and the book. Both in his poetry, essays and fiction, Auster seems to face the work of writing as an actual physical effort of effective construction, as if the words that are aligned in the poem-text were stones to place in a row when building a wall or some other structure in stone.

Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

Alright: a distinctive pathway of change from the 18th century to the present day

The origins of the vast majority of the words we use in contemporary English go back as far as Old or Middle English. In contrast, alright and all right in their present-day application appear to be the result of a more recent evolution, as there is no evidence of their use, not even in the two-word form, in the published fiction before the 18th century. Furthermore, there are not in the research literature, at least to my knowledge, any previous linguistic studies on this specific subject matter. The present article is simply an attempt to describe the various processes of diachronic change that brought about the emergence of alright.

Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Uniprocessor EDF scheduling with mode change

Consider the problem of scheduling sporadically-arriving tasks with implicit deadlines using Earliest-Deadline-First (EDF) on a single processor. The system may undergo changes in its operational modes and therefore the characteristics of the task set may change at run-time. We consider a well-established previously published mode-change protocol and we show that if every mode utilizes at most 50% of the processing capacity then all deadlines are met. We also show that there exists a task set that misses a deadline although the utilization exceeds 50% by just an arbitrarily small amount. Finally, we present, for a relevant special case, an exact schedulability test for EDF with mode change.

Multidimensional scaling analysis of electricity market prices

This paper studies the impact of energy and stock markets upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Historical values from major energy, stock and electricity markets are adopted. To analyze the data several graphs produced by MDS are presented and discussed. This method is useful to have a deeper insight into the behavior and the correlation of the markets. The results may also guide the construction models, helping electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility and, simultaneously, to achieve better financial results.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Comparison of contaminant removal effectiveness and air change efficiency as indicator of air diffusion quality.

The ventilation efficiency concept is an attempt to quantify a parameter that can easily distinguish the different options for air diffusion in the building spaces. Thirteen strategies of air diffusion were measured in a test chamber through the application of the tracer gas method, with the objective to validate the calculation by Computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Were compared the Air Change Efficiency (ACE) and the Contaminant Removal Effectiveness (CRE), the two indicators most internationally accepted. The main results from this work shows that the values of the numerical simulations are in good agreement with experimental measurements and also, that the solutions to be adopted for maximizing the ventilation efficiency should be the schemes that operate with low speeds of supply air and small differences between supply air temperature and the room temperature.