A congestion management and transmission price simulator for competitive electricity markets

In a liberalized electricity market, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) plays a crucial role in power system operation. Among many other tasks, TSO detects congestion situations and allocates the payments of electricity transmission. This paper presents a software tool for congestion management and transmission price determination in electricity markets. The congestion management is based on a reformulated Optimal Power Flow (OPF), whose main goal is to obtain a feasible solution for the re-dispatch minimizing the changes in the dispatch proposed by the market operator. The transmission price computation considers the physical impact caused by the market agents in the transmission network. The final tariff includes existing system costs and also costs due to the initial congestion situation and losses costs. The paper includes a case study for the IEEE 30 bus power system.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Nodal price simulation in competitive electricity markets

Locational Marginal Prices (LMP) are important pricing signals for the participants of competitive electricity markets, as the effects of transmission losses and binding constraints are embedded in LMPs [1],[2]. This paper presents a software tool that evaluates the nodal marginal prices considering losses and congestion. The initial dispatch is based on all the electricity transactions negotiated in the pool and in bilateral contracts. It must be checked if the proposed initial dispatch leads to congestion problems; if a congestion situation is detected, it must be solved. An AC power flow is used to verify if there are congestion situations in the initial dispatch. Whenever congestion situations are detected, they are solved and a feasible dispatch (re-dispatch) is obtained. After solving the congestion problems, the simulator evaluates LMP. The paper presents a case study based on the the 118 IEEE bus test network.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European banks

Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost relevance, because of the impact of this sector on economic growth and financial stability. Of all the different assets that make up a bank portfolio, the residential mortgage loans constitute one of its main. Using the dynamic panel data method, we analyse the influence of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, using a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weights of residential mortgage loans show lower credit risk in good times. This result explains why banks rush to lend on property during booms due to the positive effects it has on credit risk. The results show further that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property price cycle. The results also reveal the existence of a non-linear relationship (U-shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and the residential mortgage loans exposure. For those banks that have high credit risk, a large exposure of residential mortgage loans is associated with higher risk-adjusted profitability, through lower risk. For banks with a moderate/low credit risk, the effects of higher residential mortgage loan exposure on its risk-adjusted profitability are also positive or marginally positive.

Residential property loans and performance during property price booms: evidence from European

Understanding the performance of banks is of the u tmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of performance. Using a dynamic panel model , we analyse the impact of res idential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk , based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union ( EU - 15 ) , over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that banks with larger weight s in residential mortgage loans display lower credit risk in good market conditions . This result may explain why banks rush to lend on property during b ooms due to the positive effect it has on credit risk . The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cy cle. Furthermore, t he results reveal the existence of a non - linear relationship ( U - shaped marginal effect), as a function of bank’s risk, between profitability and residential mortgage exposure . For those banks that have high er credit risk, a large exposur e to residential loans is associated with increased risk - adjusted profitability, through a reduction in risk. For banks with a moderate to low credit risk, the impact of higher exposure are also positive on risk - adjusted profitability.

Ethernet goes real-time: a survey on research and technological developments

Ethernet is the most popular LAN technology. Its low price and robustness, resulting from its wide acceptance and deployment, has created an eagerness to expand its responsibilities to the factory-floor, where real-time requirements are to be fulfilled. However, it is difficult to build a real-time control network using Ethernet, because its MAC protocol, the 1-persistent CSMA/CD protocol with the BEB collision resolution algorithm, has unpredictable delay characteristics. Many anticipate that the recent technological advances in Ethernet such as the emerging Fast/Gigabit Ethernet, micro-segmentation and full-duplex operation using switches will also enable it to support time-critical applications. This technical report provides a comprehensive look at the unpredictability inherent to Ethernet and at recent technological advances towards real-time operation.

Preemption delay analysis for floating non-preemptive region scheduling

In real-time systems, there are two distinct trends for scheduling task sets on unicore systems: non-preemptive and preemptive scheduling. Non-preemptive scheduling is obviously not subject to any preemption delay but its schedulability may be quite poor, whereas fully preemptive scheduling is subject to preemption delay, but benefits from a higher flexibility in the scheduling decisions. The time-delay involved by task preemptions is a major source of pessimism in the analysis of the task Worst-Case Execution Time (WCET) in real-time systems. Preemptive scheduling policies including non-preemptive regions are a hybrid solution between non-preemptive and fully preemptive scheduling paradigms, which enables to conjugate both world's benefits. In this paper, we exploit the connection between the progression of a task in its operations, and the knowledge of the preemption delays as a function of its progression. The pessimism in the preemption delay estimation is then reduced in comparison to state of the art methods, due to the increase in information available in the analysis.

An improved preemption delay upper bound for floating non-preemptive region

In embedded systems, the timing behaviour of the control mechanisms are sometimes of critical importance for the operational safety. These high criticality systems require strict compliance with the offline predicted task execution time. The execution of a task when subject to preemption may vary significantly in comparison to its non-preemptive execution. Hence, when preemptive scheduling is required to operate the workload, preemption delay estimation is of paramount importance. In this paper a preemption delay estimation method for floating non-preemptive scheduling policies is presented. This work builds on [1], extending the model and optimising it considerably. The preemption delay function is subject to a major tightness improvement, considering the WCET analysis context. Moreover more information is provided as well in the form of an extrinsic cache misses function, which enables the method to provide a solution in situations where the non-preemptive regions sizes are small. Finally experimental results from the implementation of the proposed solutions in Heptane are provided for real benchmarks which validate the significance of this work.

The roman conquered by delay: reducing the number of preemptions using sleep states

Sleep-states are emerging as a first-class design choice in energy minimization. A side effect of this is that the release behavior of the system is affected and subsequently the preemption relations between tasks. In a first step we have investigated how the behavior in terms of number of preemptions of tasks in the system is changed at runtime, using an existing procrastination approach, which utilizes sleepstates for energy savings purposes. Our solution resulted in substantial savings of preemptions and we expect from even higher yields for alternative energy saving algorithms. This work is intended to form the base of future research, which aims to bound the number of preemptions at analysis time and subsequently how this may be employed in the analysis to reduced the amount of system utilization, which is reserved to account for the preemption delay.

A tighter analysis of the worst-case endto- end communication delay in massive multicores

"Many-core” systems based on the Network-on- Chip (NoC) architecture have brought into the fore-front various opportunities and challenges for the deployment of real-time systems. Such real-time systems need timing guarantees to be fulfilled. Therefore, calculating upper-bounds on the end-to-end communication delay between system components is of primary interest. In this work, we identify the limitations of an existing approach proposed by [1] and propose different techniques to overcome these limitations.

A simulation model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol: delay/throughput evaluation of the GTS mechanism

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol has the ability to support time-sensitive Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) applications due to the Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) Medium Access Control mechanism. Recently, several analytical and simulation models of the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol have been proposed. Nevertheless, currently available simulation models for this protocol are both inaccurate and incomplete, and in particular they do not support the GTS mechanism. In this paper, we propose an accurate OPNET simulation model, with focus on the implementation of the GTS mechanism. The motivation that has driven this work is the validation of the Network Calculus based analytical model of the GTS mechanism that has been previously proposed and to compare the performance evaluation of the protocol as given by the two alternative approaches. Therefore, in this paper we contribute an accurate OPNET model for the IEEE 802.15.4 protocol. Additionally, and probably more importantly, based on the simulation model we propose a novel methodology to tune the protocol parameters such that a better performance of the protocol can be guaranteed, both concerning maximizing the throughput of the allocated GTS as well as concerning minimizing frame delay.

Delay-bounded medium access for unidirectional wireless links

Consider a wireless network where links may be unidirectional, that is, a computer node A can broadcast a message and computer node B will receive this message but if B broadcasts then A will not receive it. Assume that messages have deadlines. We propose a medium access control (MAC) protocol which replicates a message in time with carefully selected pauses between replicas, and in this way it guarantees that for every message at least one replica of that message is transmitted without collision. The protocol ensures this with no knowledge of the network topology and it requires neither synchronized clocks nor carrier sensing capabilities. We believe this result is significant because it is the only MAC protocol that offers an upper bound on the message queuing delay for unidirectional links without relying on synchronized clocks.

Energy and delay trade-off of the GTS allocation mechanism in IEEE 802.15.4 for wireless sensor networks

The IEEE 802.15.4 protocol proposes a flexible communication solution for Low-Rate Wireless Personal Area Networks (LR-WPAN) including wireless sensor networks (WSNs). It presents the advantage to fit different requirements of potential applications by adequately setting its parameters. When in beaconenabled mode, the protocol can provide timeliness guarantees by using its Guaranteed Time Slot (GTS) mechanism. However, power-efficiency and timeliness guarantees are often two antagonistic requirements in wireless sensor networks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and propose a methodology for setting the relevant parameters of IEEE 802.15.4-compliant WSNs that takes into account a proper trade-off between power-efficiency and delay bound guarantees. First, we propose two accurate models of service curves for a GTS allocation as a function of the IEEE 802.15.4 parameters, using Network Calculus formalism. We then evaluate the delay bound guaranteed by a GTS allocation and express it as a function of the duty cycle. Based on the relation between the delay requirement and the duty cycle, we propose a power-efficient superframe selection method that simultaneously reduces power consumption and enables meeting the delay requirements of real-time flows allocating GTSs. The results of this work may pave the way for a powerefficient management of the GTS mechanism in an IEEE 802.15.4 cluster.

Time-delay and fractional derivatives

This paper proposes the calculation of fractional algorithms based on time-delay systems. The study starts by analyzing the memory properties of fractional operators and their relation with time delay. Based on the Fourier analysis an approximation of fractional derivatives through timedelayed samples is developed. Furthermore, the parameters of the proposed approximation are estimated by means of genetic algorithms. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the new perspective.