Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Mergers and acquisitions as strategies of business expansion in the pharmaceutical industry

Introduction: The present paper deals with the issue of the increasing usage of corporation mergers and acquisitions strategies within pharmaceutical industry environment. The aim is to identify the triggers of such business phenomenon and the immediate impact on the financial outcome of two powerful biopharmaceutical corporations: Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, which have been sampled due to their successful approach of the tactics in question. Materials and Methods: In order to create an overview of the development steps through mergers and acquisitions, the historical data of the two corporations has been consulted, from their official websites. The most relevant events were then associated with adequate information from the financial reports and statements of the two corporations indulged by web-based financial data providers. Results and Discussions: In the past few decades Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline have purchased or merged with various companies in order to monopolize new markets, diversify products and services portfolios, survive and surpass competitors. The consequences proved to be positive although this approach implies certain capital availability. Conclusions: Results reveal the fact that, as far as the two sampled companies are concerned, acquisitions and mergers are reactions at the pressure of the highly competitive environment. Moreover, the continuous diversification of the market’s needs is also a consistent motive. However, the prevalence and the eminence of mergers and acquisition strategies are conditioned by the tender offer, the announcer’s caliber, research and development status and further other factors determined by the internal and external actors of the market.

A data-mining-based methodology for transmission expansion planning

In recent decades, all over the world, competition in the electric power sector has deeply changed the way this sector’s agents play their roles. In most countries, electric process deregulation was conducted in stages, beginning with the clients of higher voltage levels and with larger electricity consumption, and later extended to all electrical consumers. The sector liberalization and the operation of competitive electricity markets were expected to lower prices and improve quality of service, leading to greater consumer satisfaction. Transmission and distribution remain noncompetitive business areas, due to the large infrastructure investments required. However, the industry has yet to clearly establish the best business model for transmission in a competitive environment. After generation, the electricity needs to be delivered to the electrical system nodes where demand requires it, taking into consideration transmission constraints and electrical losses. If the amount of power flowing through a certain line is close to or surpasses the safety limits, then cheap but distant generation might have to be replaced by more expensive closer generation to reduce the exceeded power flows. In a congested area, the optimal price of electricity rises to the marginal cost of the local generation or to the level needed to ration demand to the amount of available electricity. Even without congestion, some power will be lost in the transmission system through heat dissipation, so prices reflect that it is more expensive to supply electricity at the far end of a heavily loaded line than close to an electric power generation. Locational marginal pricing (LMP), resulting from bidding competition, represents electrical and economical values at nodes or in areas that may provide economical indicator signals to the market agents. This article proposes a data-mining-based methodology that helps characterize zonal prices in real power transmission networks. To test our methodology, we used an LMP database from the California Independent System Operator for 2009 to identify economical zones. (CAISO is a nonprofit public benefit corporation charged with operating the majority of California’s high-voltage wholesale power grid.) To group the buses into typical classes that represent a set of buses with the approximate LMP value, we used two-step and k-means clustering algorithms. By analyzing the various LMP components, our goal was to extract knowledge to support the ISO in investment and network-expansion planning.

Estudo de tecnologias domóticas e a sua aplicação em projectos

Actualmente a área da domótica (automação de casas e edifícios) encontra-se em franca expansão, com principal relevância nos países mais desenvolvidos, com um crescimento de mercado de mais de 10% ao ano. Existem inúmeras razoes para a crescente implantação da domótica em edifícios, entre as quais a maior eficiência energética, o aumento da segurança e a redução do custo de aquisição das tecnologias. No que diz respeito as habitações particulares, acrescenta-se essencialmente o aumento do conforto devido ao grau de automação trazido pela domótica. Apesar da domótica não ser uma área cientifico-tecnológica recente, a rápida evolução das tecnologias associadas, nomeadamente a nível das redes de comunicação com e sem fios, foi uma das razoes fundamentais para a elaboração desta Tese. Acresce o facto de o candidato estar actualmente envolvido profissionalmente na área, pelo qual esta Tese assume uma particular importância. Realizou-se um estudo comparativo das tecnologias de domótica mais relevantes, escolhidas quer pelas suas características técnicas quer pela sua implantação de mercado e potencial futuro - KNX/EIB, LonWorks, HomePlug, ZigBee e Z-Wave. Destas, comprovou-se que as duas primeiras são aquelas que, actualmente, tem maior adequabilidade para serem aplicadas em projectos de domótica. Foi por isso efectuado um estudo mais elaborado das tecnologias LonWorks e KNX/EIB, incluindo a forma pratica de instalação/programação, a elaboração de dois demonstradores e de dois projectos (de acordo com um caderno de encargos real), usando as duas tecnologias. Concluiu-se que a tecnologia LonWorks apresenta vantagens no que respeita a escalabilidade (dimensão) dos sistemas. Em termos futuros, prevê-se a necessidade da interoperabilidade entre os nos/redes cablados (tradicionais) com nos/redes sem fio, seguindo a tendência para os ambientes inteligentes (“ambient intelligence/assisted living”, “smart spaces”, “ubiquitous computing).

Biomimetic norfloxacin sensors made of molecularly-imprinted materials for potentiometric transduction

A biomimetic sensor for norfloxacin is presented that is based on host-guest interactions and potentiometric transduction. The artificial host was imprinted into polymers made from methacrylic acid and/or 2-vinyl pyridine. The resulting particles were entrapped in a plasticized poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) matrix. The sensors exhibit near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations, and detection limits range from 0.40 to 1.0 μgmL−1, respectively, and are independent of pH values at between 2 and 6, and 8 and 11, respectively. Good selectivity was observed over several potential interferents. In flowing media, the sensors exhibit fast response, a sensitivity of 68.2 mV per decade, a linear range from 79 μM to 2.5 mM, a detection limit of 20 μgmL−1, and a stable baseline. The sensors were successfully applied to field monitoring of norfloxacin in fish samples, biological samples, and pharmaceutical products

Molecularly-imprinted materials for potentiometric transduction: application to the antibiotic enrofloxacin

Enrofloxacin (ENR) is an antimicrobial used both in humans and in food producing species. Its control is required in farmed species and their surroundings in order to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Thus, a new biomimetic sensor enrofloxacin is presented. An artificial host was imprinted in specific polymers. These were dispersed in 2-nitrophenyloctyl ether and entrapped in a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix. The potentiometric sensors exhibited a near-Nernstian response. Slopes expressing mVΔlog([ENR]/M) varied within 48–63. The detection limits ranged from 0.28 to 1.01 µg mL 1. Sensors were independent from the pH of test solutions within 4–7. Good selectivity was observed toward potassium, calcium, barium, magnesium, glycine, ascorbic acid, creatinine, norfloxacin, ciprofloxacin, and tetracycline. In flowing media, the biomimetic sensors presented good reproducibility (RSD of ±0.7%), fast response, good sensitivity (47 mV/Dlog([ENR]/ M), wide linear range (1.0×10-5–1.0×10-3 M), low detection limit (0.9 µg mL-1), and a stable baseline for a 5×10-2 M acetate buffer (pH 4.7) carrier. The sensors were used to analyze fish samples. The method offered the advantages of simplicity, accuracy, and automation feasibility. The sensing membrane may contribute to the development of small devices allowing in vivo measurements of enrofloxacin or parent-drugs.

Biomimetic sensors of molecularly-imprinted polymers for chlorpromazine determination

A new man-tailored biomimetic sensor for Chlorpromazine host-guest interactions and potentiometric transduction is presented. The artificial host was imprinted within methacrylic acid, 2-vinyl pyridine and 2-acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propanesulfonic acid based polymers. Molecularly imprinted particles were dispersed in 2-nitrophenyloctyl ether and entrapped in a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix. Slopes and detection limits ranged 51–67 mV/decade and 0.46–3.9 μg/mL, respectively, in steady state conditions. Sensors were independent fromthe pHof test solutionswithin 2.0–5.5.Good selectivitywas observed towards oxytetracycline, doxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin, enrofloxacin, nalidixic acid, sulfadiazine, trimethoprim, glycine, hydroxylamine, cysteine and creatinine. Analytical features in flowing media were evaluated on a double-channel manifold, with a carrier solution of 5.0×10−2 mol/L phosphate buffer. Near-Nernstian response was observed over the concentration range 1.0×10−4 to 1.0×10−2 mol/L. Average slopes were about 48 mV/decade. The sensors were successfully applied to field monitoring of CPZ in fish samples, offering the advantages of simplicity, accuracy, automation feasibility and applicability to complex samples.

Man-tailored biomimetic sensor of molecularly imprinted materials for the potentiometric measurement of oxytetracycline

A novel biomimetic sensor for the potentiometric transduction of oxytetracycline is presented. The artificial host was imprinted in methacrylic acid and/or acrylamide based polymers. Different amounts of molecularly imprinted and non-imprinted polymers were dispersed in different plasticizing solvents and entrapped in a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix. Only molecularly imprinted based sensors allowed a potentiometric transduction, suggesting the existence of host–guest interactions. These sensors exhibited a near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations; slopes and detection limits ranged 42–63 mV/decade and 2.5–31.3 µg/mL, respectively. Sensors were independent from the pH of test solutions within 2–5. Good selectivity was observed towards glycine, ciprofloxacin, creatinine, acid nalidixic, sulfadiazine, cysteine, hydroxylamine and lactose. In flowing media, the biomimetic sensors presented good reproducibility (RSD of ±0.7%), fast response, good sensitivity (65 mV/decade), wide linear range (5.0×10−5 to 1.0×10−2 mol/L), low detection limit (19.8 µg/mL), and a stable baseline for a 5×10−3M citrate buffer (pH 2.5) carrier. The sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of drugs and urine. This work confirms the possibility of using molecularly imprinted polymers as ionophores for organic ion recognition in potentiometric transduction.

Short- and medium-term effects of manual therapy on cervical active range of motion and pressure pain sensitivity in latent myofascial pain of the upper trapezius muscle: a randomized controlled trial

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate effects of different manual techniques on cervical ranges of 17 motion and pressure pain sensitivity in subjects with latent trigger point of the upper trapezius muscle. 18 Methods: One hundred seventeen volunteers, with a unilateral latent trigger point on upper trapezius due to computer 19 work, were randomly divided into 5 groups: ischemic compression (IC) group (n = 24); passive stretching group (n = 20 23); muscle energy technique group (n = 23); and 2 control groups, wait-and-see group (n = 25) and placebo group 21 (n = 22). Cervical spine range of movement was measured using a cervical range of motion instrument as well as 22 pressure pain sensitivity by means of an algometer and a visual analog scale. Outcomes were assessed pretreatment, 23 immediately, and 24 hours after the intervention and 1 week later by a blind researcher. A 4 × 5 mixed repeated- 24 measures analysis of variance was used to examine the effects of the intervention and Cohen d coefficient was used. 25 Results: A group-by-time interaction was detected in all variables (P b .01), except contralateral rotation. The 26 immediate effect sizes of the contralateral flexion, ipsilateral rotation, and pressure pain threshold were large for 3 27 experimental groups. Nevertheless, after 24 hours and 1 week, only IC group maintained the effect size. 28 Conclusions: Manual techniques on upper trapezius with latent trigger point seemed to improve the cervical range of 29 motion and the pressure pain sensitivity. These effects persist after 1 week in the IC group. (J Manipulative Physiol 301 Ther 2013;xx:1-10)

Host-Guest interaction between herbicide oxadiargyl and hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin

In the face of a growing human population and increased urbanization, the demand for pesticides will simply rise. Farmers must escalate yields on increasingly fewer farm acres. However, the risks of pesticides, whether real or perceived, may force changes in the way these chemicals are used. Scientists are working toward pest control plans that are environmentally sound, effective, and profitable. In this context the development of new pesticide formulations which may improve application effectiveness, safety, handling, and storage can be pointed out as a solution. As a contribution to the area, the microencapsulation of the herbicide oxadiargyl (OXA) in (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (HP-β-CD) was performed. The study was conducted in different aqueous media (ultrapure water and in different pH buffer solutions). In all cases an increment of the oxadiargyl solubility as a function of the HP-β-CD concentration that has been related to the formation of an inclusion complex was verified. UV-Vis and NMR experiments allowed concluding that the stoichiometry of the OXA/HP-β-CD complex formed is 1 : 1. The gathered results can be regarded as an important step for its removal from industrial effluents and/or to increase the stabilizing action, encapsulation, and adsorption in water treatment plants.

Impact of Distributed Generation in the Transmission System Expansion Planning

In this work, the impact of distributed generation in the transmission expansion planning will be simulated through the performance of an optimization process for three different scenarios: the first without distributed generation, the second with distributed generation equivalent to 1% of the load, and the third with 5% of distributed generation. For modeling the expanding problem the load flow linearized method using genetic algorithms for optimization has been chosen. The test circuit used is a simplification of the south eastern Brazilian electricity system with 46 buses.

Digital marketing strategies

Internship Report presented to Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto for the Master’s degree in Marketing Digital under the guidance of Dr. José Magalhães Author Note This internship was carried out under the Erasmus Program for college students and under the agreement between the sending institution, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto and the host company, eRise, located in Budapest, Hungary, under the guidance of Vilmos Schwarz.

An Enhanced WLAN Security System With FPGA Implementation for Multimedia Applications

Maintaining a high level of data security with a low impact on system performance is more challenging in wireless multimedia applications. Protocols that are used for wireless local area network (WLAN) security are known to significantly degrade performance. In this paper, we propose an enhanced security system for a WLAN. Our new design aims to decrease the processing delay and increase both the speed and throughput of the system, thereby making it more efficient for multimedia applications. Our design is based on the idea of offloading computationally intensive encryption and authentication services to the end systems’ CPUs. The security operations are performed by the hosts’ central processor (which is usually a powerful processor) before delivering the data to a wireless card (which usually has a low-performance processor). By adopting this design, we show that both the delay and the jitter are significantly reduced. At the access point, we improve the performance of network processing hardware for real-time cryptographic processing by using a specialized processor implemented with field-programmable gate array technology. Furthermore, we use enhanced techniques to implement the Counter (CTR) Mode with Cipher Block Chaining Message Authentication Code Protocol (CCMP) and the CTR protocol. Our experiments show that it requires timing in the range of 20–40 μs to perform data encryption and authentication on different end-host CPUs (e.g., Intel Core i5, i7, and AMD 6-Core) as compared with 10–50 ms when performed using the wireless card. Furthermore, when compared with the standard WiFi protected access II (WPA2), results show that our proposed security system improved the speed to up to 3.7 times.

CANDi: context-aware node discovery for short-range cooperation

Multi-standard mobile devices are allowing users to enjoy higher data rates with ubiquitous connectivity. However, the benefits gained from multiple interfaces come at an expense—that being higher energy consumption in an era where mobile devices need to be energy compliant. One promising solution is the usage of short-range cooperative communication as an overlay for infrastructure-based networks taking advantage of its context information. However, the node discovery mechanism, which is pivotal to the bearer establishment process, still represents a major burden in terms of the total energy budget. In this paper, we propose a technology agnostic approach towards enhancing the MAC energy ratings by presenting a context-aware node discovery (CANDi) algorithm, which provides a priori knowledge towards the node discovery mechanism by allowing it to search nodes in the near vicinity at the ‘right time and at the right place’. We describe the different beacons required for establishing the cooperation, as well as the context information required, including battery level, modes, location and so on. CANDi uses the long-range network (WiMAX and WiFi) to distribute the context information about cooperative clusters (Ultra-wideband-based) in the vicinity. The searching nodes can use this context in locating the cooperative clusters/nodes, which facilitates the establishing of short-range connections. Analytical and simulation results are obtained, and the energy saving gains are further demonstrated in the laboratory using a customised testbed. CANDi saves up to 50% energy during the node discovery process, while the demonstrative testbed shows up to 75% savings in the total energy budget, thus validating the algorithm, as well as providing viable evidence to support the usage of short-range cooperative communications for energy savings.

Host-Tailored Sensors for Leucomalachite Green Potentiometric Measurements

A new biomimetic sensor for leucomalachite green host-guest interactions and potentiometric transduction is presented. The artificial host was imprinted in methacrylic acid or acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propanesulfonic acid-based polymers. Molecularly imprinted particles were dispersed in 2-nitrophenyloctyl ether and trapped in poly(vinyl chloride). The potentiometric sensors exhibited a near-Nernstian response in steady state evaluations, with slopes and detection limits ranging from 45.8 to 81.2 mV and 0.28 to 1.01 , respectively. They were independent from the pH of test solutions within 3 to 5. Good selectivity was observed towards drugs that may contaminate water near fish cultures, such as oxycycline, doxycycline, enrofloxacin, trimethoprim, creatinine, chloramphenicol, and dopamine. The sensors were successfully applied to field monitoring of leucomalachite green in river samples. The method offered the advantages of simplicity, accuracy, applicability to colored and turbid samples, and automation feasibility.