10 resultados para Hedging des Mengenrisikos
em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal
Resumo:
Orientador: Mestre Alberto Couto
Resumo:
The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.
Resumo:
This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Resumo:
Les années quatre-vingt signalent un point de bascule dans et une mutation majeure dans les caractéristiques narratives de la littérature française. D’une certaine façon, elles entament la contemporanéité littéraire telle que nous la connaissons du point de vue critique. Nous insisterons sur le rôle des revues et des éditoriaux dans ce processus. Ils manifestent quelques hésitations de la critique par rapport à la littérature naissante.
Resumo:
Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Música - Interpretação Artística. Especialidade: Piano
Resumo:
Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre, Gabriela Pinheiro
Resumo:
Les années quatre-vingt signalent un point de bascule dans et une mutation majeure dans les caractéristiques narratives de la littérature française. D’une certaine façon, elles entament la contemporanéité littéraire telle que nous la connaissons du point de vue critique. Nous insisterons sur le rôle des revues et des éditoriaux dans ce processus. Ils manifestent quelques hésitations de la critique par rapport à la littérature naissante.