Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

From local to global importance measures of uncertainty propagation in composite structures

The influence of uncertainties of input parameters on output response of composite structures is investigated in this paper. In particular, the effects of deviations in mechanical properties, ply angles, ply thickness and on applied loads are studied. The uncertainty propagation and the importance measure of input parameters are analysed using three different approaches: a first-order local method, a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) supported by a variance-based method and an extension of local variance to estimate the global variance over the domain of inputs. Sample results are shown for a shell composite laminated structure built with different composite systems including multi-materials. The importance measures of input parameters on structural response based on numerical results are established and discussed as a function of the anisotropy of composite materials. Needs for global variance methods are discussed by comparing the results obtained from different proposed methodologies. The objective of this paper is to contribute for the use of GSA techniques together with low expensive local importance measures.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Bit error models

The use of bit error models in communication simulation has been widely studied. In this technical report we present three models: the Independent Channel Model; the Gilbert-Elliot Model and the Burst-Error Periodic Model.

Fractional Dynamics of Computer Virus Propagation

We propose a fractional model for computer virus propagation. The model includes the interaction between computers and removable devices. We simulate numerically the model for distinct values of the order of the fractional derivative and for two sets of initial conditions adopted in the literature. We conclude that fractional order systems reveal richer dynamics than the classical integer order counterpart. Therefore, fractional dynamics leads to time responses with super-fast transients and super-slow evolutions towards the steady-state, effects not easily captured by the integer order models.

Performance evaluation of a cooperative reputation system for vehicular delay-tolerant networks

In the last decade, both scientific community and automotive industry enabled communications among vehicles in different kinds of scenarios proposing different vehicular architectures. Vehicular delay-tolerant networks (VDTNs) were proposed as a solution to overcome some of the issues found in other vehicular architectures, namely, in dispersed regions and emergency scenarios. Most of these issues arise from the unique characteristics of vehicular networks. Contrary to delay-tolerant networks (DTNs), VDTNs place the bundle layer under the network layer in order to simplify the layered architecture and enable communications in sparse regions characterized by long propagation delays, high error rates, and short contact durations. However, such characteristics turn contacts very important in order to exchange as much information as possible between nodes at every contact opportunity. One way to accomplish this goal is to enforce cooperation between network nodes. To promote cooperation among nodes, it is important that nodes share their own resources to deliver messages from others. This can be a very difficult task, if selfish nodes affect the performance of cooperative nodes. This paper studies the performance of a cooperative reputation system that detects, identify, and avoid communications with selfish nodes. Two scenarios were considered across all the experiments enforcing three different routing protocols (First Contact, Spray and Wait, and GeoSpray). For both scenarios, it was shown that reputation mechanisms that punish aggressively selfish nodes contribute to increase the overall network performance.

Fractional Dynamics of Computer Virus Propagation

We propose a fractional model for computer virus propagation. The model includes the interaction between computers and removable devices. We simulate numerically the model for distinct values of the order of the fractional derivative and for two sets of initial conditions adopted in the literature. We conclude that fractional order systems reveal richer dynamics than the classical integer order counterpart. Therefore, fractional dynamics leads to time responses with super-fast transients and super-slow evolutions towards the steady-state, effects not easily captured by the integer order models.

Localização de Precisão Usando Redes Sem Fios Enterradas

As Redes Sem Fios Enterradas (Wireless Underground Networks - WUN) são formadas por nós que comunicam entre si através de ligações sem fios e têm como meio de propagação o solo. Os sistemas de localização mais utilizados atualmente têm desvantagens ao nível da precisão e o custo. Nesta tese é proposta uma solução de localização de precisão que recorre à utilização de redes sem fios enterradas e um algoritmo de posicionamento baseados em Wi-Fi. O objetivo é estimar a localização de objetos, utilizando dispositivos Wi-Fi de baixo custo. Os resultados experimentais obtidos demonstram que o erro de localização é inferior a 0,40 m, e que esta solução é viável para, por exemplo, localizar jogadores num campo de futebol ou localizar um objeto num campo agrícola.