Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Demand response in electrical energy supply: an optimal real time pricing approach

In competitive electricity markets with deep concerns for the efficiency level, demand response programs gain considerable significance. As demand response levels have decreased after the introduction of competition in the power industry, new approaches are required to take full advantage of demand response opportunities. This paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. The use of DemSi by a retailer in a situation of energy shortage, is presented. Load reduction is obtained using a consumer based price elasticity approach supported by real time pricing. Non-linear programming is used to maximize the retailer’s profit, determining the optimal solution for each envisaged load reduction. The solution determines the price variations considering two different approaches, price variations determined for each individual consumer or for each consumer type, allowing to prove that the approach used does not significantly influence the retailer’s profit. The paper presents a case study in a 33 bus distribution network with 5 distinct consumer types. The obtained results and conclusions show the adequacy of the used methodology and its importance for supporting retailers’ decision making.

Strawberries from integrated pest management and organic farming: phenolic composition and antioxidant properties

Consumer awareness, pesticide and fertilizer contaminations and environmental concerns have resulted in significant demand for organically grown farm produce. Consumption of berries has become popular among health-conscious consumers due to the high levels of valuable antioxidants, such as anthocyanins and other phenolic compounds. The present study evaluated the influence that organic farming (OF) and integrated pest management (IPM) practise exert on the total phenolic content in 22 strawberry samples from four varieties. Postharvest performance of OF and IPM strawberries grown in the same area in the centre of Portugal and harvested at the same maturity stage were compared. Chemical profiles (phenolic compounds) were determined with the aid of HPLC-DAD/MS. Total phenolic content was higher for OF strawberry extracts. This study showed that the main differences in bioactive phytochemicals between organically and IPM grown strawberries concerned their anthocyanin levels. Organically grown strawberries were significantly higher in antioxidant activity than were the IPM strawberries, as measured by DPPH and FRAP assays.

Constructing and Using Multimodal Narratives to Research in Science Education: Contributions Based on Practical Classroom

This study deals with the problem of how to collect genuine and useful data about science classroom practices, and preserving the complex and holistic nature of teaching and learning. Additionally, we were looking for an instrument that would allow comparability and verifiability for teaching and research purposes. Given the multimodality of teaching and learning processes, we developed the multimodal narrative (MN), which describes what happens during a task and incorporates data such as examples of students’ work.

Science metrics on fractional calculus development since 1966

During the last fifty years the area of Fractional Calculus verified a considerable progress. This paper analyzes and measures the evolution that occurred since 1966.

Dynamic load management in a smart home to participate in demand response events

In future power systems, in the smart grid and microgrids operation paradigms, consumers can be seen as an energy resource with decentralized and autonomous decisions in the energy management. It is expected that each consumer will manage not only the loads, but also small generation units, heating systems, storage systems, and electric vehicles. Each consumer can participate in different demand response events promoted by system operators or aggregation entities. This paper proposes an innovative method to manage the appliances on a house during a demand response event. The main contribution of this work is to include time constraints in resources management, and the context evaluation in order to ensure the required comfort levels. The dynamic resources management methodology allows a better resources’ management in a demand response event, mainly the ones of long duration, by changing the priorities of loads during the event. A case study with two scenarios is presented considering a demand response with 30 min duration, and another with 240 min (4 h). In both simulations, the demand response event proposes the power consumption reduction during the event. A total of 18 loads are used, including real and virtual ones, controlled by the presented house management system.

Real-Time Simulation of energy Management in a Domestic Consumer

Recent and future changes in power systems, mainly in the smart grid operation context, are related to a high complexity of power networks operation. This leads to more complex communications and to higher network elements monitoring and control levels, both from network’s and consumers’ standpoint. The present work focuses on a real scenario of the LASIE laboratory, located at the Polytechnic of Porto. Laboratory systems are managed by the SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM), already developed by the authors based on a SCADA system. The SHIM capacities have been recently improved by including real-time simulation from Opal RT. This makes possible the integration of Matlab®/Simulink® real-time simulation models. The main goal of the present paper is to compare the advantages of the resulting improved system, while managing the energy consumption of a domestic consumer.

Dados de reconhecimento facial em Business Intelligence

Vivemos cada vez mais numa era de crescentes avanços tecnológicos em diversas áreas. O que há uns anos atrás era considerado como praticamente impossível, em muitos dos casos, já se tornou realidade. Todos usamos tecnologias como, por exemplo, a Internet, Smartphones e GPSs de uma forma natural. Esta proliferação da tecnologia permitiu tanto ao cidadão comum como a organizações a sua utilização de uma forma cada vez mais criativa e simples de utilizar. Além disso, a cada dia que passa surgem novos negócios e startups, o que demonstra o dinamismo que este crescimento veio trazer para a indústria. A presente dissertação incide sobre duas áreas em forte crescimento: Reconhecimento Facial e Business Intelligence (BI), assim como a respetiva combinação das duas com o objetivo de ser criado um novo módulo para um produto já existente. Tratando-se de duas áreas distintas, é primeiramente feito um estudo sobre cada uma delas. A área de Business Intelligence é vocacionada para organizações e trata da recolha de informação sobre o negócio de determinada empresa, seguindo-se de uma posterior análise. A grande finalidade da área de Business Intelligence é servir como forma de apoio ao processo de tomada de decisão por parte dos analistas e gestores destas organizações. O Reconhecimento Facial, por sua vez, encontra-se mais presente na sociedade. Tendo surgido no passado através da ficção científica, cada vez mais empresas implementam esta tecnologia que tem evoluído ao longo dos anos, chegando mesmo a ser usada pelo consumidor final, como por exemplo em Smartphones. As suas aplicações são, portanto, bastante diversas, desde soluções de segurança até simples entretenimento. Para estas duas áreas será assim feito um estudo com base numa pesquisa de publicações de autores da respetiva área. Desde os cenários de utilização, até aspetos mais específicos de cada uma destas áreas, será assim transmitido este conhecimento para o leitor, o que permitirá uma maior compreensão por parte deste nos aspetos relativos ao desenvolvimento da solução. Com o estudo destas duas áreas efetuado, é então feita uma contextualização do problema em relação à área de atuação da empresa e quais as abordagens possíveis. É também descrito todo o processo de análise e conceção, assim como o próprio desenvolvimento numa vertente mais técnica da solução implementada. Por fim, são apresentados alguns exemplos de resultados obtidos já após a implementação da solução.

Brokerage Platform for Media Content Recommendation

Near real time media content personalisation is nowadays a major challenge involving media content sources, distributors and viewers. This paper describes an approach to seamless recommendation, negotiation and transaction of personalised media content. It adopts an integrated view of the problem by proposing, on the business-to-business (B2B) side, a brokerage platform to negotiate the media items on behalf of the media content distributors and sources, providing viewers, on the business-to-consumer (B2C) side, with a personalised electronic programme guide (EPG) containing the set of recommended items after negotiation. In this setup, when a viewer connects, the distributor looks up and invites sources to negotiate the contents of the viewer personal EPG. The proposed multi-agent brokerage platform is structured in four layers, modelling the registration, service agreement, partner lookup, invitation as well as item recommendation, negotiation and transaction stages of the B2B processes. The recommendation service is a rule-based switch hybrid filter, including six collaborative and two content-based filters. The rule-based system selects, at runtime, the filter(s) to apply as well as the final set of recommendations to present. The filter selection is based on the data available, ranging from the history of items watched to the ratings and/or tags assigned to the items by the viewer. Additionally, this module implements (i) a novel item stereotype to represent newly arrived items, (ii) a standard user stereotype for new users, (iii) a novel passive user tag cloud stereotype for socially passive users, and (iv) a new content-based filter named the collinearity and proximity similarity (CPS). At the end of the paper, we present off-line results and a case study describing how the recommendation service works. The proposed system provides, to our knowledge, an excellent holistic solution to the problem of recommending multimedia contents.

Sol-gel-based biosensing applied to medicinal science

Biosensors have opened new horizons in biomedical analysis, by ensuring increased assay speed and flexibility, and allowing point-of-care applications, multi-target analyses, automation and reduced costs of testing. This has been a result of many studies merging nanotechnology with biochemistry over the years, thereby enabling the creation of more suitable environments to biological receptors and their substitution by synthetic analogue materials. Sol-gel chemistry, among other materials, is deeply involved in this process. Sol-gel processing allows the immobilization of organic molecules, biomacromolecules and cells maintaining their properties and activities, permitting their integration into different transduction devices, of electrochemical or optical nature, for single or multiple analyses. Sol-gel also allows to the production of synthetic materials mimicking the activity of natural receptors, while bringing advantages, mostly in terms of cost and stability. Moreover, the biocompatibility of sol-gel materials structures of biological nature allowed the use of these materials in emerging in vivo applications. In this chapter, biosensors for biomedical applications based on sol-gel derived composites are presented, compared and described, along with current emerging applications in vivo, concerning drug delivery or biomaterials. Sol-gel materials are shown as a promising tool for current, emerging and future medical applications. - See more at: http://www.eurekaselect.com/127191/article#sthash.iPqqyhox.dpuf

Scalable and Efficient Configuration of TimeDivision Multiplexed Resources

Consumer-electronics systems are becoming increasingly complex as the number of integrated applications is growing. Some of these applications have real-time requirements, while other non-real-time applications only require good average performance. For cost-efficient design, contemporary platforms feature an increasing number of cores that share resources, such as memories and interconnects. However, resource sharing causes contention that must be resolved by a resource arbiter, such as Time-Division Multiplexing. A key challenge is to configure this arbiter to satisfy the bandwidth and latency requirements of the real-time applications, while maximizing the slack capacity to improve performance of their non-real-time counterparts. As this configuration problem is NP-hard, a sophisticated automated configuration method is required to avoid negatively impacting design time. The main contributions of this article are: 1) An optimal approach that takes an existing integer linear programming (ILP) model addressing the problem and wraps it in a branch-and-price framework to improve scalability. 2) A faster heuristic algorithm that typically provides near-optimal solutions. 3) An experimental evaluation that quantitatively compares the branch-and-price approach to the previously formulated ILP model and the proposed heuristic. 4) A case study of an HD video and graphics processing system that demonstrates the practical applicability of the approach.

Determining the receptivity to the bluetooth marketing by the portuguese consumer

With increasing technological innovation, the concept of marketing and its applications become more functional and wide. Today, we witness a steady growth in the development of mobile marketing campaigns, i.e., marketing campaigns targeting mobile devices (mobile phones, Smartphones, PDAs, tablets). Among the several mobile technologies available (Bluetooth networks, Wi-Fi, WAP, SMS service, MMS), Bluetooth seems to have the biggest potential for the least invasive consumer mobile marketing strategy. This study seeks to answer the question "what factors may motivate the Portuguese consumer to accept Bluetooth marketing?.“ We propose a conceptual model capable of investigating the relationships between the several responsiveness factors to Bluetooth marketing. The development of a set of hypotheses supported by an online questionnaire to a valid sample of 755 participants, demonstrates that there is a relationship between factors such as expanded knowledge of the technology, and Bluetooth marketing receptivity. Additionally, we find that the information value of mobile advertising messages, such as entertainment value and personalization, relates well to responsiveness. The ability to accept/dismiss promotional messages sent to mobile phones and other safety features also correlated well with Bluetooth marketing receptivity.

A Multi–Agent Brokerage Platform for Media Content Recommendation

Near real time media content personalisation is nowadays a major challenge involving media content sources, distributors and viewers. This paper describes an approach to seamless recommendation, negotiation and transaction of personalised media content. It adopts an integrated view of the problem by proposing, on the business-to-business (B2B) side, a brokerage platform to negotiate the media items on behalf of the media content distributors and sources, providing viewers, on the business-to-consumer (B2C) side, with a personalised electronic programme guide (EPG) containing the set of recommended items after negotiation. In this setup, when a viewer connects, the distributor looks up and invites sources to negotiate the contents of the viewer personal EPG. The proposed multi-agent brokerage platform is structured in four layers, modelling the registration, service agreement, partner lookup, invitation as well as item recommendation, negotiation and transaction stages of the B2B processes. The recommendation service is a rule-based switch hybrid filter, including six collaborative and two content-based filters. The rule-based system selects, at runtime, the filter(s) to apply as well as the final set of recommendations to present. The filter selection is based on the data available, ranging from the history of items watched to the ratings and/or tags assigned to the items by the viewer. Additionally, this module implements (i) a novel item stereotype to represent newly arrived items, (ii) a standard user stereotype for new users, (iii) a novel passive user tag cloud stereotype for socially passive users, and (iv) a new content-based filter named the collinearity and proximity similarity (CPS). At the end of the paper, we present off-line results and a case study describing how the recommendation service works. The proposed system provides, to our knowledge, an excellent holistic solution to the problem of recommending multimedia contents.

Massive Open Online Course management: learning science and engineering through peer-reviewed projects

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) are gaining prominence in transversal teaching-learning strategies. However, there are many issues still debated, namely assessment, recognized largely as a cornerstone in Education. The large number of students involved requires a redefinition of strategies that often use approaches based on tasks or challenging projects. In these conditions and due to this approach, assessment is made through peer-reviewed assignments and quizzes online. The peer-reviewed assignments are often based upon sample answers or topics, which guide the student in the task of evaluating peers. This chapter analyzes the grading and evaluation in MOOCs, especially in science and engineering courses, within the context of education and grading methodologies and discusses possible perspectives to pursue grading quality in massive e-learning courses.

Initial dilemmas in IST research: design science and design research, a clarification of concepts

The inter-disciplinarity of information systems, applied discipline and activity of design, and the study from different paradigms perspectives explains the diversity of problems addressed. The context is broad and includes important issues beyond technology, as the application, use, effectiveness, efficiency and their organizational and social impacts. In design science, the research interest is in contributing to the improvement of the processes of the design activity itself. The relevance of research in design science is associated with the result obtained for the improvement of living conditions in organizational, inter-organizational and Society contexts. In the research whose results are artifacts, the adoption of design research as a process of research is crucial to ensure discipline, rigor and transparency. Based on a literature review, this paper clarifies the terms of design science and design research. This is the main motivation for presenting this paper, determinant for the phase in research in technologies and information systems which are the three research projects presented. As a result the three projects are discussed in relation to the concepts of design science and design research.