6 resultados para Choquet expected utility

em Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Portugal


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This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

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This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

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Trabalho de Projeto apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientação: Doutora Alcina Augusta de Sena Portugal Dias Coorientação: Doutora Amélia Cristina Ferreira Silva

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The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

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A Logística, vista como uma perspetiva integradora entre os parceiros de negócio, com objetivos comuns de proporcionar ao cliente mais-valias e aspetos diferenciadores perante os outros concorrentes, contribui em muito na manutenção das empresas na globalização atual, que se torna cada vez mais flexível. Através de uma boa gestão de processos críticos de negócio, boa localização dos materiais, sejam eles quais forem, produtos finais, matérias-primas ou produtos em vias de fabrico e através do transporte a logística cria utilidade temporal e diferenciadora. De facto, a logística poderá assumir um papel fundamental em proporcionar valor acrescentado ao disponibilizar, a tempo, os serviços que os clientes necessitam ou esperam. Enquadrando-se na temática de gestão dos armazéns, o presente projeto consistiu no estudo de operações de picking com a finalidade de otimização dos processos de picking no armazém do operador logístico AR – Serviços de Logística, localizado em Ribeirão, Vila Nova de Famalicão. O trabalho inicial passou pelo levantamento do funcionamento das operações do processo de picking na empresa e posteriormente confrontá-los com as tecnologias e procedimentos atuais no mercado. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível definir e implementar métricas enquadradas nas finalidades estratégicas e operacionais do operador logístico. As soluções passaram também pela melhoria da aplicação de gestão de armazéns (WMS), reavaliação dos indicadores previamente estabelecidos e na aquisição de equipamentos para automatização das operações picking e localizações. Os registos e informações relacionadas com os módulos fulcrais são armazenados e tratados na base de dados de suporte à aplicação com contributo de melhoria contínua aos procedimentos logístico da empresa e sua relação com os stakeholders na estratégia global de negócio com o operador logístico. Finalmente, foi possível analisar os resultados obtidos em modo real em relação as estimativas calculadas e definidas na fase de implementação e desenvolvimento.

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With the growing interest in the issue of reducing powerconsumption in electricity applications, energy-saving devises and the problem of their operation gains more attention. The increase in the utilization of energy-saving lamps, especially LED lamps, leads to the wide interest in their influence on the power system. The impact of discussed devices on the voltage and current in the grid must be thoroughly studied before launching devices into the market. The studies undertaken on the LED lamps present in a wide range the issue of harmonic emission from lamps and their influence on power quality. Due to many anufacturing technologies, different LED devices can have various effects on the utility. It is significant to carry out researches concerning the adverse effects of energy-saving lamps in order to utilize devices that meet certain requirements which are set by the international commissions.