21st century quality: Looking into the “Crystal ball”

The discussion of possible scenarios for the future of Quality is on the priority list of major Quality Practitioners Societies. EOQ – European Organization for Quality (EOQ, 2014) main team for its 58th EOQ-Congress held June 2014 in Göteborg was “Managing Challenges in Quality Leadership” and ASQ - American Society for Quality (ASQ, 2015) appointed “the Future of Quality” for Quality Progress Magazine November 2015 issue. In addition, the ISO 9001:2008 revision process carried by ISO/TC 176 aims to assure that ISO 9001:2015 International Standard remains stable for the next 10 years (ISO, 2014) contributing to an increased discussion on the future of quality. The purpose of this research is to review available Quality Management approaches and outline, adding an academic perspective, expected developments for Quality within the 21st Century. This paper follows a qualitative approach, although data from international organizations is used. A literature review has been undertaken on quality management past and potential future trends. Based on these findings a model is proposed for organization quality management development and propositions for the future of quality management are advanced. Firstly, a state of the art of existing Quality Management approaches is presented, for example, like Total Quality Management (TQM) and Quality Gurus, ISO 9000 International Standards Series (with an outline of the expected changes for ISO 9001:2015), Six Sigma and Business Excellence Models.Secondly, building on theoretical and managerial approaches, a two dimensional matrix – Quality Engineering (QE - technical aspects of quality) and Quality Management (QM: soft aspects of quality) - is presented, outlining five proposed characterizations of Quality maturity levels and giving insights for applications and future developments. Literature review highlights that QM and QE may be addressing similar quality issues but their approaches are different in terms of scope breadth and intensity and they ought to complement and reciprocally reinforce one another. The challenges organizations face within the 21st century have stronger uncertainty, complexity, and differentiation. Two main propositions are advanced as relevant for 21st Century Quality: - QM importance for the sustainable success of organizations will increase and they should be aware of the larger ecosystem to be managed for improvement, possibly leading to the emergence of a new Quality paradigm, The Civilizacional Excellence paradigm. - QE should get more attention from QM and the Quality professionals will have to: a) Master and apply in wider contexts and in additional depth the Quality Tools (basic, intermediate and advanced); b) Have the soft skills needed for its success; c) Be results oriented and better understand and demonstrate the relationships between approaches and results These propositions challenge both scholars and practitioners for a sustained and supported discussion on the future of Quality. “All things are ready, if our mind be so.” (Shakespeare, Henry V, circa 1599).

Thinking over b‐learning strategy: the MIPO model approach

This article describes the main research results in a new methodology, in which the stages and strategies of the technology integration process are identified and described. A set of principles and recommendations are therefore presented. The MIPO model described in this paper is a result of the effort made regarding the understanding of the main success features of good practices, in the web environment, integrated in the information systems/information technology context. The initial model has been created, based on experiences and literature review. After that, it was tested in the information and technology system units at higher school and also adapted as a result of four cycles of an actionresearch work combined with a case study research. The information, concepts and procedures presented here give support to teachers and instructors, instructional designers and planning teams – anyone who wants to develop effective b‐learning instructions.

Eastwards / westwards: which direction for gender studies in the 21st century?

Eastwards / Westwards: Which Direction for Gender Studies in the XXIst Century? is a collection of essays which focus on themes and methods that characterize current research into gender in Asian countries in general. In this collection, ideas derived from Gender Studies elsewhere in the world have been subjected to scrutiny for their utility in helping to describe and understand regional phenomena. But the concepts of Local and Global – with their discoursive productions – have not functioned as a binary opposition: localism and globalism are mutually constitutive and researchers have interrogated those spaces of interaction between the ‘self’ and the ‘other’, bearing in mind their own embeddedness in social and cultural structures and their own historical memory. Contributors to this collection provided a critical transnational perspective on some of the complex effects of the dynamics of cultural globalization, by exploring the relation between gender and development, language, historiography, education and culture. We have also given attention to the ideological and rhetorical processes through which gender identity is constructed, by comparing textual grids and patterns of expectation. Likewise, we have discussed the role of ethnography, anthropology, historiography, sociology, fiction, popular culture and colonial and post-colonial sources in (re)inventing old/new male/female identities, their conversion into concepts and circulation through time and space. This multicultural and trans-disciplinary selection of essays is totally written in English, fully edited and revised, therefore, it has a good potential for an immediate international circulation. This project may trace new paths and issues for discussion on what concerns the life, practices and narratives by and about women in Asia, as well as elsewhere in the present day global experience. Academic readership: Researchers, scholars, educators, graduate and post-graduate students, doctoral students and general non-fiction readers, with a special interest in Gender Studies, Asia, Colonial and Post-Colonial Literature, Anthropology, Cultural Studies, History, Historiography, Politics, Race, Feminism, Language, Linguistics, Power, Political and Feminist Agendas, Popular Culture, Education, Women’s Writing, Religion, Multiculturalism, Globalisation, Migration. Chapter summary: 1. “Social Gender Stereotypes and their Implication in Hindi”, Anjali Pande, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. This essay looks at the subtle ways in which gender identities are constructed and reinforced in India through social norms of language use. Language itself becomes a medium for perpetuating gender stereotypes, forcing its speakers to confirm to socially defined gender roles. Using examples from a classroom discussion about a film, this essay will highlight the underlying rigid male-female stereotypes in Indian society with their more obvious expressions in language. For the urban woman in India globalisation meant increased economic equality and exposure to changed lifestyles. On an individual level it also meant redefining gender relations and changing the hierarchy in man-­woman relationships. With the economic independence there is a heightened sense of liberation in all spheres of social life, a confidence to fuzz the rigid boundaries of gender roles. With the new films and media celebrating this liberated woman, who is ready to assert her sexual needs, who is ready to explode those long held notions of morality, one would expect that the changes are not just superficial. But as it soon became obvious in the course of a classroom discussion about relationships and stereotypes related to age, the surface changes can not become part of the common vocabulary, for the obvious reason that there is still a vast gap between the screen image of this new woman and the ground reality. Social considerations define the limits of this assertiveness of women, whereas men are happy to be liberal within the larger frame of social sanctions. The educated urban woman in India speaks in favour of change and the educated urban male supports her, but one just needs to scratch the surface to see the time tested formulae of gender roles firmly in place. The way the urban woman happily balances this emerging promise of independence with her gendered social identity, makes it necessary to rethink some aspects of looking at gender in a gradually changing, traditional society like India. 2. “The Linguistic Dimension of Gender Equality”, Alissa Tolstokorova, Kiev Centre for Gender Information and Education, Ukraine. The subject-matter of this essay is gender justice in language which, as I argue, may be achieved through the development of a gender-related approach to linguistic human rights. The last decades of the 20th century, globally marked by a “gender shift” in attitudes to language policy, gave impetus to the social movement for promoting linguistic gender equality. It was initiated in Western Europe and nowadays is moving eastwards, as ideas of gender democracy progress into developing countries. But, while in western societies gender discrimination through language, or linguistic sexism, was an issue of concern for over three decades, in developing countries efforts to promote gender justice in language are only in their infancy. My argument is that to promote gender justice in language internationally it is necessary to acknowledge the rights of women and men to equal representation of their gender in language and speech and, therefore, raise a question of linguistic rights of the sexes. My understanding is that the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Linguistic Rights in 1996 provided this opportunity to address the problem of gender justice in language as a human rights issue, specifically as a gender dimension of linguistic human rights. 3. “The Rebirth of an Old Language: Issues of Gender Equality in Kazakhstan”, Maria Helena Guimarães, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Portugal. The existing language situation in Kazakhstan, while peaceful, is not without some tension. We propose to analyze here some questions we consider relevant in the frame of cultural globalization and gender equality, such as: free from Russian imperialism, could Kazakhstan become an easy prey of Turkey’s “imperialist dream”? Could these traditionally Muslim people be soon facing the end of religious tolerance and gender equality, becoming this new old language an easy instrument for the infiltration in the country of fundamentalism (it has already crossed the boarders of Uzbekistan), leading to a gradual deterioration of its rich multicultural relations? The present structure of the language is still very fragile: there are three main dialects and many academics defend the re-introduction of the Latin alphabet, thus enlarging the possibility of cultural “contamination” by making the transmission of fundamentalist ideas still easier through neighbour countries like Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (their languages belong to the same sub-group of Common Turkic), where the Latin alphabet is already in use, and where the ground for such ideas shown itself very fruitful. 4. “Construction of Womanhood in the Bengali Language of Bangladesh”, Raasheed Mahmood; University of New South Wales, Sydney. The present essay attempts to explore the role of gender-based language differences and of certain markers that reveal the status accorded to women in Bangladesh. Discrimination against women, in its various forms, is endemic in communities and countries around the world, cutting across class, race, age, and religious and national boundaries. One cannot understand the problems of gender discrimination solely by referring to the relationship of power or authority between men and women. Rather one needs to consider the problem by relating it to the specific social formation in which the image of masculinity and femininity is constructed and reconstructed. Following such line of reasoning this essay will examine the nature of gender bias in the Bengali language of Bangladesh, holding the conviction that as a product of social reality language reflects the socio-cultural behaviour of the community who speaks it. This essay will also attempt to shed some light on the processes through which gender based language differences produce actual consequences for women, who become exposed to low self-esteem, depression and systematic exclusion from public discourse. 5. “Marriage in China as an expression of a changing society”, Elisabetta Rosado David, University of Porto, Portugal, and Università Ca’Foscari, Venezia, Italy. In 29 April 2001, the new Marriage Law was promulgated in China. The first law on marriage was proclaimed in 1950 with the objective of freeing women from the feudal matrimonial system. With the second law, in 1981, values and conditions that had been distorted by the Cultural Revolution were recovered. Twenty years later, a new reform was started, intending to update marriage in the view of the social and cultural changes that occurred with Deng Xiaoping’s “open policy”. But the legal reform is only the starting point for this case-study. The rituals that are followed in the wedding ceremony are often hard to understand and very difficult to standardize, especially because China is a vast country, densely populated and characterized by several ethnic minorities. Two key words emerge from this issue: syncretism and continuity. On this basis, we can understand tradition in a better way, and analyse whether or not marriage, as every social manifestation, has evolved in harmony with Chinese culture. 6. “The Other Woman in the Portuguese Colonial Empire: The Case of Portuguese India”, Maria de Deus Manso, University of Évora, Portugal. This essay researches the social, cultural and symbolic history of local women in the Portuguese Indian colonial enclaves. The normative Portuguese overseas history has not paid any attention to the “indigenous” female populations in colonial Portuguese territories, albeit the large social importance of these social segments largely used in matrimonial and even catholic missionary strategies. The first attempt to open fresh windows in the history of this new field was the publication of Charles Boxer’s referential study about Women in lberian Overseas Expansion, edited in Portugal only after the Revolution of 1975. After this research we can only quote some other fragmentary efforts. In fact, research about the social, cultural, religious, political and symbolic situation of women in the Portuguese colonial territories, from the XVI to the XX century, is still a minor historiographic field. In this essay we discuss this problem and we study colonial representations of women in the Portuguese Indian enclaves, mainly in the territory of Goa, using case studies methodologies. 7. “Heading East this Time: Critical Readings on Gender in Southeast Asia”, Clara Sarmento, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Portugal. This essay intends to discuss some critical readings of fictional and theoretical texts on gender condition in Southeast Asian countries. Nowadays, many texts about women in Southeast Asia apply concepts of power in unusual areas. Traditional forms of gender hegemony have been replaced by other powerful, if somewhat more covert, forms. We will discuss some universal values concerning conventional female roles as well as the strategies used to recognize women in political fields traditionally characterized by male dominance. Female empowerment will mean different things at different times in history, as a result of culture, local geography and individual circumstances. Empowerment needs to be perceived as an individual attitude, but it also has to be facilitated at the macro­level by society and the State. Gender is very much at the heart of all these dynamics, strongly related to specificities of historical, cultural, ethnic and class situatedness, requiring an interdisciplinary transnational approach.

Language and trade: the (new) route of portuguese in the 21st century

Globalisation has eliminated frontiers and in the case of Europe helped the crossing of borders and changed forever the concept of social (and I would also say individual) geography: the rest of the world is out there; we can pretend not to see it, but we cannot avoid it. Moreover, Europe is undergoing a serious crisis, also economic, and new markets and business partners are welcome. In this context, cultural bonds like a common language can open new investment paths and give rise to successful stories. In this paper we intend to present an example of how low linguistic distance can lead to good business, even if a) in the internationalization process of the companies’ language is often forgotten as a management element and b) consumers of language products (like User Guides) are also not stimulating investment in language by the companies. Through the results of 2 studies carried out in 2010 and 2011 we will show how a pluricentric language like Portuguese is managed in multinational companies (MC) and Small and medium Enterprises (SMEs). The second study is based on an online survey questioning the effectiveness, efficiency and general quality of User Guides and the reaction of consumers to language. Results show that although playing a role in the internationalization process of companies in the same linguistic space, language is opportunistically used. On the other hand, Portuguese and Brazilian consumers show a very functional perception of the Portuguese language...

Identificação de compostos que modulam a patogénese da doença de Machado-Joseph em C.elegans: autofagia como alvo terapêutico: identification of small compounds that modulate pathogenesis of Machado-Joseph disease in a C.elegans model: targeting autophagy

A doença de Machado-Joseph (DMJ) ou ataxia espinocerebelosa do tipo 3 (SCA3), conhecida por ser a mais comum das ataxias hereditárias dominantes em todo o mundo, é uma doença neurodegenerativa autossómica dominante que leva a uma grande incapacidade motora, embora sem alterar o intelecto, culminando com a morte do doente. Atualmente não existe nenhum tratamento eficaz para esta doença. A DMJ é resultado de uma alteração genética causada pela expansão de uma sequência poliglutamínica (poliQ), na região C-terminal do gene que codifica a proteína ataxina-3 (ATXN3). Os mecanismos celulares das doenças de poliglutaminas que provocam toxicidade, bem como a função da ATXN3, não são ainda totalmente conhecidos. Neste trabalho, usamos, pela sua simplicidade e potencial genético, um pequeno animal invertebrado, o nemátode C. elegans, com o objetivo de identificar fármacos eficazes para o combate contra a patogénese da DMJ, analisando simultaneamente o seu efeito na agregação da ATXN3 mutante nas células neuronais in vivo e o seu impacto no comportamento motor dos animais. Este pequeno invertebrado proporciona grandes vantagens no estudo dos efeitos tóxicos de proteínas poliQ nos neurónios, uma vez que a transparência das suas 959 células (das quais 302 são neurónios) facilita a deteção de proteínas fluorescentes in vivo. Para além disso, esta espécie tem um ciclo de vida curto, é económica e de fácil manutenção. Neste trabalho testámos no nosso modelo transgénico da DMJ com 130Qs em C.elegans dois compostos potencialmente moduladores da agregação da ATXN3 mutante e da resultante disfunção neurológica, atuando pela via da autofagia. De modo a validar a possível importância terapêutica da ativação da autofagia os compostos candidatos escolhidos foram o Litío e o análogo da Rapamicina CCI-779, testados independentemente e em combinação. A neuroproteção conferida pelo Litío e pelo CCI-779 independentemente sugere que o uso destes fármacos possa ser considerado uma boa estratégia como terapia para a DMJ, a testar em organismos evolutivamente mais próximos do humano. A manipulação da autofagia, segundo vários autores, parece ser benéfica e pode ser a chave para o desenvolvimento de novos tratamentos para várias doenças relacionadas com a agregação proteica e o envelhecimento.

Conceptual model for decomposing the value for the customer

Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.

Optimization model for medium term natural gas commitment

In this paper we study the optimal natural gas commitment for a known demand scenario. This study implies the best location of GSUs to supply all demands and the optimal allocation from sources to gas loads, through an appropriate transportation mode, in order to minimize total system costs. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable optimization model, reflecting real-world operations and the constraints of natural gas systems. The mathematical model is based on a Lagrangean heuristic, using the Lagrangean relaxation, an efficient approach to solve the problem. Computational results are presented for Iberian and American natural gas systems, geographically organized in 65 and 88 load nodes, respectively. The location model results, supported by the computational application GasView, show the optimal location and allocation solution, system total costs and suggest a suitable gas transportation mode, presented in both numerical and graphic supports.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo and logic programming model for distribution network reconfiguration in the presence of outages

This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Adaptation model for PCMAT – Mathematics collaborative learning platform

The aim of this paper is to present an adaptation model for an Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System, PCMAT. The adaptation of the application is based on progressive self-assessment (exercises, tasks, and so on) and applies the constructivist learning theory and the learning styles theory. Our objective is the creation of a better, more adequate adaptation model that takes into account the complexities of different users.

Context-aware emotion-based model for group decision making

Involving groups in important management processes such as decision making has several advantages. By discussing and combining ideas, counter ideas, critical opinions, identified constraints, and alternatives, a group of individuals can test potentially better solutions, sometimes in the form of new products, services, and plans. In the past few decades, operations research, AI, and computer science have had tremendous success creating software systems that can achieve optimal solutions, even for complex problems. The only drawback is that people don’t always agree with these solutions. Sometimes this dissatisfaction is due to an incorrect parameterization of the problem. Nevertheless, the reasons people don’t like a solution might not be quantifiable, because those reasons are often based on aspects such as emotion, mood, and personality. At the same time, monolithic individual decisionsupport systems centered on optimizing solutions are being replaced by collaborative systems and group decision-support systems (GDSSs) that focus more on establishing connections between people in organizations. These systems follow a kind of social paradigm. Combining both optimization- and socialcentered approaches is a topic of current research. However, even if such a hybrid approach can be developed, it will still miss an essential point: the emotional nature of group participants in decision-making tasks. We’ve developed a context-aware emotion based model to design intelligent agents for group decision-making processes. To evaluate this model, we’ve incorporated it in an agent-based simulator called ABS4GD (Agent-Based Simulation for Group Decision), which we developed. This multiagent simulator considers emotion- and argument based factors while supporting group decision-making processes. Experiments show that agents endowed with emotional awareness achieve agreements more quickly than those without such awareness. Hence, participant agents that integrate emotional factors in their judgments can be more successful because, in exchanging arguments with other agents, they consider the emotional nature of group decision making.

An emotional and context-aware model for adapting RSS news to users and groups

The exhibition of information does not always attend to the preferences and characteristics of the users, nor the context that involves the user. With the aim of overcoming this gap, we propose an emotional context-aware model for adapting information contents to users and groups. The proposed model is based on OCC and Big Five models to handle emotion and personality respectively. The idea is to adapt the representation of the information in order to maximize the positive emotional valences and minimize the negatives. To evaluate the proposed model it was developed a prototype for adapting RSS news to users and group of users.

Evaluation of 99mTc-Sestamibi as a potential tool to investigate PgP activity in inflammation

Introduction: In the XXI Century ’s Society the scientific investigation process has been growing steadily , and the field of the pharmaceutical research is one of the most enthusiastic and relevant . Here, it is very important to correlate observed functional alterations with possibly modified drug bio distribution patterns . Cancer, inflammation and inf ection are processes that induce many molecular intermediates like cytokines, chemokines and other chemical complexes that can alter the pharmacokinetics of many drugs. One cause of such changes is thought to be the modulator action of these complexes in t he P - Glyco p rotein activity, because they can act like inducers/inhibitors of MDR - 1 expression. This protein results from the expression of MDR - 1 gene, and acts as an ATP energy - dependent efflux pump, with their substrates including many drugs , like antiretrovirals, anticancers, anti - infectives, immunosuppressants, steroids or opioids . Objectives: Because of the lack of methods to provide helpful information in the investigation of in vivo molecular changes in Pgp activity during infection/infl ammation processes, and its value in the explanation of the altered drug pharmacokinetic, this paper want to evaluate the potential utility of 99m Tc - Sestamibi scintigraphy during this kind of health sciences investigation. Although the a im is indeed to create a technique to the in vivo study of Pgp activity, this preliminary Project only reaches the in vitro study phase, assumed as the first step in a n evaluation period for a new tool development. Materials and Methods: For that reason , we are performing in vitro studies of influx and efflux of 99m Tc - Sestamibi ( that is a substrate of Pgp) in hepatocytes cell line (HepG2). We are interested in clarify the cellular behavior of this radiopharmaceutical in Lipopolysaccharide(LPS) stimulated cells ( well known in vitro model of inflammation) to possibly approve this methodology. To validate the results, the Pgp expression will be finally evaluated using Western Blot technique. Results: Up to this moment , we still don’t have the final results, but we have already enough data to let us believe that LPS stimulation induce a downregulation of MDR - 1, and consequently Pgp, which could conduce to a prolonged retention of 99m Tc - Sestamibi in the inflamed cells . Conclusions: If and when this methodology demonstrate the promising results we expect, one will be able to con clude that Nuclear Medicine is an important tool to help evidence based research also on this specific field .

Multi index model - uma abordagem para aplicação ao mercado accionista em Portugal

O mercado accionista, de uma forma global, tem-se revelado nos últimos tempos uma das principais fontes de incentivo ao mercado de valores mobiliários. O seu impacto junto do público em geral é enorme e a sua importância para as empresas é vital. Interessa, então, perceber como é que a teoria financeira tem obordado a avaliação e a compreensão do processo de formação de uma cotação. Desde os anos 50 até aos dias de hoje, interessa perceber como é que os diferentes autores têm tratado esta abordagem e quais os resultados deste confronto. Interessa sobretudo perceber o abordogem de Stephen Ross e a teoria do arbitragem. Na sequência desta obordagem e com o aparecimento do Multi Index Model, passou a ser possível extimar com maior precisão a evolução da cotação, na medida em que esta estaria dependente de um vasto conjunto de variavéis, que abragem uma vasta área de influência. O contributo de Ross é por isso decisivo. No final interessa reter a melhor técnica e teoria, que defende os interesses do investidor. Face o isto resta, então, saber qual a melhor técnica estatística para proceder a estes estudos empíricos.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.