Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo and logic programming model for distribution network reconfiguration in the presence of outages

This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Logic programming and fuzzy Monte Carlo for distribution network reconfiguration

This paper present a methodology to choose the distribution networks reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzyprobabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A logic programming algorithm is applied, once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo Simulation, to get all possible reconfigurations for each system state. To evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation an AC load flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 115 buses distribution network.

Gestão do risco em mercados de energia eléctrica recorrendo ao VaR por simulação de Monte Carlo

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Monte Carlo na Avaliação de Opções Americanas

A determinação do preço justo de um contrato de opções, trouxe enormes desa os a diversos ramos da Matemática procurando desenvolver e aperfeiçoar modelos e métodos que melhor representem os comportamentos dos mercados nanceiros. A avaliação de opções americanas apresenta uma di culdade acrescida, uma vez que é necessário determinar uma estratégia óptima ao seu exercício antecipado, já que estas opções podem ser exercidas em qualquer momento até à sua maturidade. Investigações recentes mostram que metodologias baseadas em técnicas de simulação podem ser usadas com sucesso neste tipo de opções (Duan and Simonato (2001), Longsta and Schwartz (2001), Stentoft (2005)). Neste trabalho, usamos métodos de Monte Carlo para avaliar opções Americanas, recorrendo à abordagem sugerida por Longsta and Schwartz (2001), combinando modelos GARCH para o subjacente com Filtered Historical Simulation (Barone, Engle and Mancini (2008)).

A genetic algorithm for the job shop scheduling with a new local search using Monte Carlo method

This paper presents a methodology for applying scheduling algorithms using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology is based on a decision support system (DSS). The proposed methodology combines a genetic algorithm with a new local search using Monte Carlo Method. The methodology is applied to the job shop scheduling problem (JSSP). The JSSP is a difficult problem in combinatorial optimization for which extensive investigation has been devoted to the development of efficient algorithms. The methodology is tested on a set of standard instances taken from the literature and compared with others. The computation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The DSS developed can be utilized in a common industrial or construction environment.

A influência dos parâmetros nas estimativas VAR: caso prático

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Identification of neuronal alterations induced by Shank3 mutations using iPS cells from Phelan-McDermid Patients' Fibroblasts

A família de proteínas Shank é o principal conjunto de proteinas de suporte e está localizada na densidade pós-sináptica das sinapses excitatórias. Existem 3 genes na família Shank, Shank1, Shank2 e Shank3 e são caracterizados por múltiplos domínios repetidos de anquirina próximo ao N-terminal seguido pelos domínios Src homologo 3 e PDZ, uma região longa rica em prolina e um domínio de motivo α estéril próximo ao C-terminal. Shank proteínas conectam duas subunidades de receptors glutamatérgicos, recetores NMDA e recetores metabotrópicos de glutamato do tipo-I (mGluRs). O domínio PDZ da Shank conecta-se ao C-terminal do GKAP e este, liga-se, ao complexo recetor PSD-95-NMDA. Por outro lado, a proteína Homer interage com o domínio rico em prolina para confirmar a associação entre a proteína Shank com o mGluR tipo-I. A proteína específica em estudo, Shank3, é haploinsuficiente em pacientes com sindrome Phelan-McDermid devido à deleções no braço comprido do cromossoma 22 levando à danos intelectuais, ausência ou atraso no discurso, comportamentos semelhantes ao autismo, hipotonia e características dismórficas. Neste trabalho, investigamos o papel da Shank3 na função sináptica para compreender a relação entre alterações nesta proteína e as características neurológicas presente em Pacientes com síndrome Phelan-McDermid. Foram utilizados dois modelos diferentes, ratinhos knockout Shank3 e hiPSC de pacientes com PMS. Ratinhos geneticamente modificados são ferramentas uteis no estudo de genes e na compreensão dos mecanismos que experiências in vitro não são capazes de reproduzir, mas de maneira a compreender melhor as patologias humanas, decidimos trabalhar também com células humanas. Os fibroblastos dos pacientes com síndrome Phelan-McDermid fora reprogramados em hiPS cells, diferenciados em neurónios e comparados com os neurónios obtidos a partir de doadores saudavéis e da mesma idade. A reprogramação em iPSC foi realizada por infecção de lentivirus com quatro genes de reprogramação OCT4, c-MYC, SOX2 e KFL4 para posteriormente serem diferenciados em neurónios, com cada passo sendo positivamente confirmado através de marcadores neuronais. Através dos neurónios diferenciados, analisamos a expressão de proteínas sinápticas. Pacientes com haploinsuficiencia na proteína Shank3 apresentam níveis elevados de proteína mGluR5 e decrescidos de proteína Homer sugerindo que a haploinsuficiencia leva a desregulação do complexo mGluR5-Homer-Shank3 conduzindo também, a defeitos na maturação sináptica. Assim, a expressão da proteína mGluR5 está alterada nos pacientes com PMS podendo estar relacionada com defeitos encontrados na diferenciação neuronal e maturação sináptica observados nos neurónios de pacientes. Conclusivamente, iPS cells representam um modelo fundamental no estudo da proteína Shank3 e a sua influência no sindrome de Phelan-McDermid.

Accounting for the dissociating properties of organic chemicals in LCIA: an uncertainty analysis applied to micropollutants in the assessment of freshwater ecotoxicity

In life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models, the sorption of the ionic fraction of dissociating organic chemicals is not adequately modeled because conventional non-polar partitioning models are applied. Therefore, high uncertainties are expected when modeling the mobility, as well as the bioavailability for uptake by exposed biota and degradation, of dissociating organic chemicals. Alternative regressions that account for the ionized fraction of a molecule to estimate fate parameters were applied to the USEtox model. The most sensitive model parameters in the estimation of ecotoxicological characterization factors (CFs) of micropollutants were evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis in both the default USEtox model and the alternative approach. Negligible differences of CFs values and 95% confidence limits between the two approaches were estimated for direct emissions to the freshwater compartment; however the default USEtox model overestimates CFs and the 95% confidence limits of basic compounds up to three orders and four orders of magnitude, respectively, relatively to the alternative approach for emissions to the agricultural soil compartment. For three emission scenarios, LCIA results show that the default USEtox model overestimates freshwater ecotoxicity impacts for the emission scenarios to agricultural soil by one order of magnitude, and larger confidence limits were estimated, relatively to the alternative approach.

Local fractional variational iteration and decomposition methods for wave equation on cantor sets within local fractional operators

We perform a comparison between the fractional iteration and decomposition methods applied to the wave equation on Cantor set. The operators are taken in the local sense. The results illustrate the significant features of the two methods which are both very effective and straightforward for solving the differential equations with local fractional derivative.