Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Back pain in Portuguese schoolchildren: prevalence and risk factors

2 Centre of Research, Education, Innovation and Intervention In Sport, Faculty of Sport, University of Porto, Portugal Background: Regarding children aged _10 years, only a few international studies were conducted to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for back pain. Although other studies on the older Portuguese children point to prevalence between 17% and 39%, none exists for this specific age-group. Thus, the aim of this study was conducted to establish the prevalence of and risk factors for back pain in schoolchildren aged 7–10 years. Methods: A cross-sectional survey among 637 children was conducted. A self-rating questionnaire was used to verify prevalence and duration of back pain, life habits, school absence, medical treatments or limitation of activities. For posture assessment, photographic records with a bio-photogrammetric analysis were used to obtain data about head, acromion and pelvic alignment, horizontal alignment of the scapulae, vertical alignment of the trunk and vertical body alignment. Results: Postural problems were found in 25.4% of the children, especially in the 8- and 9-year-old groups. Back pain occurs in 12.7% with the highest values among the 7- and 10-year-old children. The probability of back pain increased 7 times when the children presented a history of school absences, 4.3 times when they experienced sleeping difficulties, 4.4 times when school furniture was uncomfortable, 4.7 times if the children perceived an occurrence of parental back pain and 2.5 times when children presented incorrect posture. Conclusions: The combination of school absences, parental pain, sleeping difficulties, inappropriate school furniture and postural deviations at the sagittal and frontal planes seem to prove the multifactorial aetiology of back pain.

A responsabilidade pela gestão dos riscos de negócio

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação do Dr. Carlos Mendes

Ventilação de locais afetos a serviços técnicos elétricos

A correta ventilação de locais afetos a serviços técnicos elétricos, nomeadamente postos de transformação e salas de grupos geradores, reveste-se de extrema importância como garantia da continuidade e qualidade do serviço prestado, durabilidade dos materiais e equipamentos e da segurança das instalações e utilizadores. A ventilação dos locais afetos a serviços técnicos elétricos pode ser natural ou mecânica, dependendo das suas caraterísticas e das necessidades de ar para ventilação e combustão, quando aplicável. Os técnicos responsáveis pelo projeto de instalações elétricas não detém, em regra, um conhecimento muito profundo sobre este tema, sendo os seus projetos realizados com base em especificações e metodologias gerais disponibilizadas pelos fabricantes e comercializadores dos materiais e equipamentos. O projeto de uma solução de ventilação para um local afeto a serviços técnicos eléctricos exige o conhecimento de todos os ganhos térmicos no interior do espaço, o conhecimento das soluções técnicas e tecnológicas de ventilação bem como as metodologias de dimensionamento aplicáveis a cada situação. Sendo a fase de projeto elétrico, em regra, uma atividade com prazos apertados, pode conduzir ao menosprezar de certos aspetos particulares que carecem de investigação e tempo para serem desenvolvidos, o que pode resultar em projetos e mapas de quantidades que apresentam desvios da solução ideal para o cliente, podendo resultar em investimentos mais elevados, quer na fase de execução, quer na fase de exploração das instalações. Neste sentido, pretendeu-se com o presente trabalho, tratar o tema da ventilação de locais afetos a serviços técnicos, atendendo ao enquadramento normativo e regulamentar das instalações, às soluções técnicas e tecnológicas disponíveis no mercado e às metodologias de dimensionamento, apresentadas pelos documentos normativos e regulamentares. Pretendeu-se também desenvolver uma ferramenta informática de auxilio ao dimensionamento das soluções de ventilação de locais afetos a serviços técnicas eléctricos destinados a postos de transformação e grupos geradores de modo a reduzir o tempo normalmente exigido por esta tarefa, o que se traduzirá numa maior rentabilidade do tempo de projeto, assim como a normalizar as soluções apresentadas e minimizar a probabilidade de erro do dimensionamento das soluções, reduzindo assim a probabilidade de gastos em “trabalhos a mais” provenientes de erros em projeto, poupança em materiais presentes no mapa de quantidades, maior eficácia na execução da empreitada, poupança em gastos durante a exploração e desta forma numa proximidade entre as partes interessadas com o dimensionamento da ventilação do espaço técnico elétrico.

Desatando os nós da solidão com laços de afeto: Intervenção psicossocial em contexto domiciliário

Apesar de haver diferenças de indivíduo para indivíduo, todas as pessoas se encontram num processo de envelhecimento, que se pretende que seja ativo e saudável. Porém, à medida que nos aproximamos da velhice, e por inúmeros fatores, a probabilidade da pessoa se sentir só, de ter sentimentos como a solidão, de estar isolada ou socialmente excluída, aumenta. Este relatório surge de um projeto desenhado e desenvolvido com pessoas que se sentiam sozinhas, sendo pessoas idosas ou com deficiência, e que, por esse motivo, foram encaminhadas para apoio domiciliário. Pretendeu-se assim colmatar algumas das necessidades quotidianas dessas pessoas, sendo relevante entender se esse apoio contribuiu para melhorar a qualidade de vida, evitar ou diminuir os momentos e sentimentos de solidão, através da (re)ativação de redes de apoio. O projeto “Desatando os nós da solidão com laços de afeto” foi, na medida das suas possibilidades, desenhado e desenvolvido com os participantes. Este projeto ramificou-se em três subprojetos, correspondendo cada um, de forma mais específica, às necessidades e aos problemas que cada pessoa sentia, tentando contribuir para a melhoria da qualidade de vida, recorrendo às potencialidades de cada um e aos recursos existentes na comunidade. É um projeto que terá continuidade, pois envolveu voluntários e técnicos da instituição e pessoas das redes de apoio mais próximas dos participantes, mas que já proporcionou algumas mudanças, sendo esse um ponto de partida para alcançar a utopia orientadora do projeto.

Equilibria of quantity setting differentiated duopoly with uncertainty

In this paper, we consider a Stackelberg duopoly competition with differentiated goods and with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the output levels of their products according to the well-known concept of perfect Bayesian equilibrium. There is a firm ( F1 ) that chooses first the quantity 1 q of its good; the other firm ( F2 ) observes 1 q and then chooses the quantity 2 q of its good. We suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them following a probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that there is exactly one perfect Bayesian equilibrium for this game. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with the highest production cost versus the one with the cheapest cost.

An intelligent clustering scheme for distributed intrusion detection in vehicular cloud computing

In recent years, vehicular cloud computing (VCC) has emerged as a new technology which is being used in wide range of applications in the area of multimedia-based healthcare applications. In VCC, vehicles act as the intelligent machines which can be used to collect and transfer the healthcare data to the local, or global sites for storage, and computation purposes, as vehicles are having comparatively limited storage and computation power for handling the multimedia files. However, due to the dynamic changes in topology, and lack of centralized monitoring points, this information can be altered, or misused. These security breaches can result in disastrous consequences such as-loss of life or financial frauds. Therefore, to address these issues, a learning automata-assisted distributive intrusion detection system is designed based on clustering. Although there exist a number of applications where the proposed scheme can be applied but, we have taken multimedia-based healthcare application for illustration of the proposed scheme. In the proposed scheme, learning automata (LA) are assumed to be stationed on the vehicles which take clustering decisions intelligently and select one of the members of the group as a cluster-head. The cluster-heads then assist in efficient storage and dissemination of information through a cloud-based infrastructure. To secure the proposed scheme from malicious activities, standard cryptographic technique is used in which the auotmaton learns from the environment and takes adaptive decisions for identification of any malicious activity in the network. A reward and penalty is given by the stochastic environment where an automaton performs its actions so that it updates its action probability vector after getting the reinforcement signal from the environment. The proposed scheme was evaluated using extensive simulations on ns-2 with SUMO. The results obtained indicate that the proposed scheme yields an improvement of 10 % in detection rate of malicious nodes when compared with the existing schemes.

A Green Approach for Selfish Misbehavior Detection in 802.11-Based Wireless Networks

IEEE 802.11 is one of the most well-established and widely used standard for wireless LAN. Its Medium Access control (MAC) layer assumes that the devices adhere to the standard’s rules and timers to assure fair access and sharing of the medium. However, wireless cards driver flexibility and configurability make it possible for selfish misbehaving nodes to take advantages over the other well-behaving nodes. The existence of selfish nodes degrades the QoS for the other devices in the network and may increase their energy consumption. In this paper we propose a green solution for selfish misbehavior detection in IEEE 802.11-based wireless networks. The proposed scheme works in two phases: Global phase which detects whether the network contains selfish nodes or not, and Local phase which identifies which node or nodes within the network are selfish. Usually, the network must be frequently examined for selfish nodes during its operation since any node may act selfishly. Our solution is green in the sense that it saves the network resources as it avoids wasting the nodes energy by examining all the individual nodes of being selfish when it is not necessary. The proposed detection algorithm is evaluated using extensive OPNET simulations. The results show that the Global network metric clearly indicates the existence of a selfish node while the Local nodes metric successfully identified the selfish node(s). We also provide mathematical analysis for the selfish misbehaving and derived formulas for the successful channel access probability.

Replication vs erasure coding in data centric storage for wireless sensor networks

In-network storage of data in wireless sensor networks contributes to reduce the communications inside the network and to favor data aggregation. In this paper, we consider the use of n out of m codes and data dispersal in combination to in-network storage. In particular, we provide an abstract model of in-network storage to show how n out of m codes can be used, and we discuss how this can be achieved in five cases of study. We also define a model aimed at evaluating the probability of correct data encoding and decoding, we exploit this model and simulations to show how, in the cases of study, the parameters of the n out of m codes and the network should be configured in order to achieve correct data coding and decoding with high probability.

Novel Prostate Specific Antigen plastic antibody designed withcharged binding sites for an improved protein binding and itsapplication in a biosensor of potentiometric transduction

This work shows that the synthesis of protein plastic antibodies tailored with selected charged monomersaround the binding site enhances protein binding. These charged receptor sites are placed over a neutralpolymeric matrix, thus inducing a suitable orientation the protein reception to its site. This is confirmed bypreparing control materials with neutral monomers and also with non-imprinted template. This concepthas been applied here to Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA), the protein of choice for screening prostate can-cer throughout the population, with serum levels >10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associatedcancer.Protein Imprinted Materials with charged binding sites (C/PIM) have been produced by surfaceimprinting over graphene layers to which the protein was first covalently attached. Vinylben-zyl(trimethylammonium chloride) and vinyl benzoate were introduced as charged monomers labellingthe binding site and were allowed to self-organize around the protein. The subsequent polymerizationwas made by radical polymerization of vinylbenzene. Neutral PIM (N/PIM) prepared without orientedcharges and non imprinted materials (NIM) obtained without template were used as controls.These materials were used to develop simple and inexpensive potentiometric sensor for PSA. Theywere included as ionophores in plasticized PVC membranes, and tested over electrodes of solid or liq-uid conductive contacts, made of conductive carbon over a syringe or of inner reference solution overmicropipette tips. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response,with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8 × 10−11mol/L (2 ng/mL). The cor-responding non-imprinted sensors showed lower sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade.The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum, with recoveries ranging from 96.9to 106.1% and relative errors of 6.8%.

Oriented Tailoring of Plastic Antibodies for Prostate Specific Antigen and Application of the Imprinted Material as Ionophore in Potentiometric Detection

Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) is the biomarker of choice for screening prostate cancer throughout the population, with PSA values above 10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associated cancer1. According to the most recent World Health Organization (WHO) data, prostate cancer is the commonest form of cancer in men in Europe2. Early detection of prostate cancer is thus very important and is currently made by screening PSA in men over 45 years old, combined with other alterations in serum and urine parameters. PSA is a glycoprotein with a molecular mass of approximately 32 kDa consisting of one polypeptide chain, which is produced by the secretory epithelium of human prostate. Currently, the standard methods available for PSA screening are immunoassays like Enzyme-Linked Immunoabsorbent Assay (ELISA). These methods are highly sensitive and specific for the detection of PSA, but they require expensive laboratory facilities and high qualify personal resources. Other highly sensitive and specific methods for the detection of PSA have also become available and are in its majority immunobiosensors1,3-5, relying on antibodies. Less expensive methods producing quicker responses are thus needed, which may be achieved by synthesizing artificial antibodies by means of molecular imprinting techniques. These should also be coupled to simple and low cost devices, such as those of the potentiometric kind, one approach that has been proven successful6. Potentiometric sensors offer the advantage of selectivity and portability for use in point-of-care and have been widely recognized as potential analytical tools in this field. The inherent method is simple, precise, accurate and inexpensive regarding reagent consumption and equipment involved. Thus, this work proposes a new plastic antibody for PSA, designed over the surface of graphene layers extracted from graphite. Charged monomers were used to enable an oriented tailoring of the PSA rebinding sites. Uncharged monomers were used as control. These materials were used as ionophores in conventional solid-contact graphite electrodes. The obtained results showed that the imprinted materials displayed a selective response to PSA. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response, with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8X10-11 mol/L (2 ng/mL). The corresponding non-imprinted sensors showed smaller sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade. The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum samples, with percentage recoveries of 106.5% and relatives errors of 6.5%.

Fractional Order Generalized Information

This paper formulates a novel expression for entropy inspired in the properties of Fractional Calculus. The characteristics of the generalized fractional entropy are tested both in standard probability distributions and real world data series. The results reveal that tuning the fractional order allow an high sensitivity to the signal evolution, which is useful in describing the dynamics of complex systems. The concepts are also extended to relative distances and tested with several sets of data, confirming the goodness of the generalization.

Rhapsody in Fractional

This paper studies several topics related with the concept of “fractional” that are not directly related with Fractional Calculus, but can help the reader in pursuit new research directions. We introduce the concept of non-integer positional number systems, fractional sums, fractional powers of a square matrix, tolerant computing and FracSets, negative probabilities, fractional delay discrete-time linear systems, and fractional Fourier transform.

Study of the Reliability of Statistical Timing Analysis for Real-Time Systems

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.

Uncertainty on a Bertrand duopoly with product differentiation

The conclusions of the Bertrand model of competition are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider a Bertrand competition, with differentiated goods. Furthermore, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.