Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Incorporating sustainability into a chemical company’s modus operandi

The intent of this dissertation is to review relevant existing management systems and chemical industry initiatives to identify synergies, overlaps and gaps with Sustainability best practices, to map the barriers to the incorporation of Sustainability and formulate recommendations to facilitate execution of Sustainability practices within existing management systems. A chemical industry Sustainability survey was conducted through APEQ, the Portuguese association of chemical companies, which constitutes the first baseline on the topic for this national industry association. The commonly used international standards and the Responsible Care® (RC) initiative were cross-referenced against the United Nations Global Compact Assessment Tool. Guidance on how to incorporate Sustainability into a company‘s modus operandi was collapsed into Sustainability Playbooks. The survey revealed that 73% of the APEQ member companies that participated in the survey have a Sustainability Plan. Both large and small/medium APEQ member companies see the market not willing to pay extra for ‗greener‘ products as one of the main barriers. APEQ large enterprise see complexity of implementation and low return on investment as the other most significant barriers while small/medium enterprise respond that the difficulty to predict customer sustainability needs is the other most significant barrier. Amongst many other insights from this survey reported to APEQ, Life Cycle Assessment practices were found to have a low level of implementation and were also considered of low importance, thus identifying a very important opportunity in Sustainability practices to be addressed by APEQ. Two hundred and seventy three assessment points from United Nations Global Compact Assessment Tool plus five additional items were cross-referenced with international standard requirements. With the authorization of the intellectual property owners, the United Nations Global Compact Assessment Tool was modified to introduce actionable recommendations for each gap identified by management standard. This tool was automated to output specific recommendations for 63 possible combinations after simply selecting from a list of commonly used management standards and the RC initiative. Finally this modified tool was introduced into Playbooks for Incorporation of Sustainability at two levels: a ―Get Started Playbook‖ for beginners or small/medium size enterprise and an ―Advanced Playbook‖ as a second advancement stage or for large enterprise.

Análise comparativa de valores de imóveis e de métodos de avaliação

Esta dissertação considera a importância da avaliação imobiliária no mercado imobiliário, nas mais diversas situações. Contudo, cinge-se à determinação de um presumível valor de transação para apartamentos, moradias, lojas e terrenos, para venda ou arrendamento. Os mercados imobiliários escolhidos são dois concelhos conhecidos, da autora, por ser mais fácil a perceção dos locais e preços de venda. Foi escolhido o Concelho de Valongo para apartamentos, moradias e terrenos e o Concelho da Maia para lojas. Para determinarmos os valores em estudo adotaram-se os métodos de avaliação imobiliária mais comuns nomeadamente: o Método Comparativo, Método do Rendimento e o Método do Custo. São apresentados os métodos de avaliação mais utilizados, descrevendo-se a aplicação de cada um deles e as suas condições necessárias. Fez-se uma comparação entre cada um o que permitiu concluir sobre os mesmos. A recolha dos imóveis objeto de estudo foi efetuada em Sites de empresas imobiliárias que dispunham de informação necessária ao âmbito do trabalho. Aplicaram-se os métodos a cada caso recolhido e posteriormente fez-se a comparação dos resultados obtidos. Através de tratamento estatístico, utilizaram-se as técnicas de regressão múltipla para análise de relações entre os métodos de avaliação aplicados. Por fim, retiraram-se conclusões sobre a relação existente entre os três métodos de avaliação.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.

Elspot: Nord Pool Spot Integration in MASCEM Electricity Market Simulator

The energy sector in industrialized countries has been restructured in the last years, with the purpose of decreasing electricity prices through the increase in competition, and facilitating the integration of distributed energy resources. However, the restructuring process increased the complexity in market players' interactions and generated emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. In order to provide players with competitive advantage in the market, decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful. In this context arises MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), a multi-agent based simulator that models real electricity markets. To reinforce MASCEM with the capability of recreating the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is crucial to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents a new negotiation model implemented in MASCEM based on the negotiation model used in day-ahead market (Elspot) of Nord Pool. This is a key module to study competitive electricity markets, as it presents well defined and distinct characteristics from the already implemented markets, and it is a reference electricity market in Europe (the one with the larger amount of traded power).

Particle Swarm Optimization of Electricity Market Negotiating Players Portfolio

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which performs realistic simulations of the electricity markets. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from each market context. However, it is still necessary to adequately optimize the players’ portfolio investment. For this purpose, this paper proposes a market portfolio optimization method, based on particle swarm optimization, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities (bilateral negotiation, market sessions, and operation in different markets) and the negotiation context such as the peak and off-peak periods of the day, the type of day (business day, weekend, holiday, etc.) and most important, the renewable based distributed generation forecast. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator – MIBEL.

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

Towards a unified European electricity market: The contribution of data-mining to support realistic simulation studies

Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations will bring to the participant countries. A case study using MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance when using several different market mechanisms.

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Multidimensional Scaling Analysis of Stock Market Indexes

This paper applies multidimensional scaling techniques and Fourier transform for visualizing possible time-varying correlations between 25 stock market values. The method is useful for observing clusters of stock markets with similar behavior.

Cournot model with investments to change the market size

We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.

Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.

A Avaliação Imobiliária e a sua relação com o Investimento

O presente relatório visa cumprir os requisitos da unidade curricular Dissertação, Projeto ou Estágio (DIPRE) do mestrado em Engenharia Civil do Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto (ISEP). O estágio curricular decorreu na empresa VPM - Vaz Pinto Mendes - Unipessoal Lda, sob o tema: “A avaliação imobiliária e a sua relação com o investimento”. A avaliação imobiliária visa determinar o valor associado aos bens imóveis. Pode ser aplicada a todo o tipo de bens imóveis, tais como: apartamentos e moradias uni e multifamiliares, espaços comerciais e de serviços, quintas, unidades hoteleiras e industriais, complexos desportivos, entre outros. A avaliação imobiliária poderá ser solicitada por parte de proprietários ou arrendatários dos imóveis, por empresas, tribunais, advogados e solicitadores. Apresenta diversos fins, tais como a determinação do valor de indemnização devido a expropriações, o financiamento hipotecário para compra ou construção de imóveis, partilhas, estudo de um investimento financeiro, intenção de venda ou arrendamento, efeitos fiscais ou apenas o simples conhecimento do valor aproximado das propriedades que se possui. O presente estudo visa abordar o atual mercado imobiliário nacional, o procedimento de realização de uma avaliação imobiliária e principalmente os métodos de avaliação tradicionais.