Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Person Localization Using Sensor Information Fusion

Nowadays the incredible grow of mobile devices market led to the need for location-aware applications. However, sometimes person location is difficult to obtain, since most of these devices only have a GPS (Global Positioning System) chip to retrieve location. In order to suppress this limitation and to provide location everywhere (even where a structured environment doesn’t exist) a wearable inertial navigation system is proposed, which is a convenient way to track people in situations where other localization systems fail. The system combines pedestrian dead reckoning with GPS, using widely available, low-cost and low-power hardware components. The system innovation is the information fusion and the use of probabilistic methods to learn persons gait behavior to correct, in real-time, the drift errors given by the sensors.

Adapting Meeting Tools to Agent Decision

Electricity markets are complex environments comprising several negotiation mechanisms. MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This paper aims to complement ALBidS strategies usage by MASCEM players, providing, through the Six Thinking Hats group decision technique, a means to combine them and take advantages from their different perspectives. The combination of the different proposals resulting from ALBidS’ strategies is performed through the application of a Genetic Algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Scenarios Generation for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets based on Intelligent Data Analysis

This document presents a tool able to automatically gather data provided by real energy markets and to generate scenarios, capture and improve market players’ profiles and strategies by using knowledge discovery processes in databases supported by artificial intelligence techniques, data mining algorithms and machine learning methods. It provides the means for generating scenarios with different dimensions and characteristics, ensuring the representation of real and adapted markets, and their participating entities. The scenarios generator module enhances the MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) simulator, endowing a more effective tool for decision support. The achievements from the implementation of the proposed module enables researchers and electricity markets’ participating entities to analyze data, create real scenarios and make experiments with them. On the other hand, applying knowledge discovery techniques to real data also allows the improvement of MASCEM agents’ profiles and strategies resulting in a better representation of real market players’ behavior. This work aims to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities through adequate multi-agent simulation.

Intelligent Micro Grid Management using a Multi-Agent approach

Recent changes in electricity markets (EMs) have been potentiating the globalization of distributed generation. With distributed generation the number of players acting in the EMs and connected to the main grid has grown, increasing the market complexity. Multi-agent simulation arises as an interesting way of analysing players’ behaviour and interactions, namely coalitions of players, as well as their effects on the market. MASCEM was developed to allow studying the market operation of several different players and MASGriP is being developed to allow the simulation of the micro and smart grid concepts in very different scenarios This paper presents a methodology based on artificial intelligence techniques (AI) for the management of a micro grid. The use of fuzzy logic is proposed for the analysis of the agent consumption elasticity, while a case based reasoning, used to predict agents’ reaction to price changes, is an interesting tool for the micro grid operator.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

Smart Grid Market Using Joint Energy and Ancillary Services Bids

The power systems operation in the smart grid context increases significantly the complexity of their management. New approaches for ancillary services procurement are essential to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. These approaches should include market mechanisms which allow the participation of small and medium distributed energy resources players in a competitive market environment. In this paper, an energy and ancillary services joint market model used by an aggregator is proposed, considering bids of several types of distributed energy resources. In order to improve economic efficiency in the market, ancillary services cascading market mechanism is also considered in the model. The proposed model is included in MASCEM – a multi-agent system electricity market simulator. A case study considering a distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources is presented.

Virtual Power Players Internal Negotiation and Management in MASCEM

Electricity Markets are not only a new reality but an evolving one as the involved players and rules change at a relatively high rate. Multi-agent simulation combined with Artificial Intelligence techniques may result in very helpful sophisticated tools. This paper presents a new methodology for the management of coalitions in electricity markets. This approach is tested using the multi-agent market simulator MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets), taking advantage of its ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Players (VPP). VPPs are represented as coalitions of agents, with the capability of negotiating both in the market and internally, with their members in order to combine and manage their individual specific characteristics and goals, with the strategy and objectives of the VPP itself. A case study using real data from the Iberian Electricity Market is performed to validate and illustrate the proposed approach.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Dados de reconhecimento facial em Business Intelligence

Vivemos cada vez mais numa era de crescentes avanços tecnológicos em diversas áreas. O que há uns anos atrás era considerado como praticamente impossível, em muitos dos casos, já se tornou realidade. Todos usamos tecnologias como, por exemplo, a Internet, Smartphones e GPSs de uma forma natural. Esta proliferação da tecnologia permitiu tanto ao cidadão comum como a organizações a sua utilização de uma forma cada vez mais criativa e simples de utilizar. Além disso, a cada dia que passa surgem novos negócios e startups, o que demonstra o dinamismo que este crescimento veio trazer para a indústria. A presente dissertação incide sobre duas áreas em forte crescimento: Reconhecimento Facial e Business Intelligence (BI), assim como a respetiva combinação das duas com o objetivo de ser criado um novo módulo para um produto já existente. Tratando-se de duas áreas distintas, é primeiramente feito um estudo sobre cada uma delas. A área de Business Intelligence é vocacionada para organizações e trata da recolha de informação sobre o negócio de determinada empresa, seguindo-se de uma posterior análise. A grande finalidade da área de Business Intelligence é servir como forma de apoio ao processo de tomada de decisão por parte dos analistas e gestores destas organizações. O Reconhecimento Facial, por sua vez, encontra-se mais presente na sociedade. Tendo surgido no passado através da ficção científica, cada vez mais empresas implementam esta tecnologia que tem evoluído ao longo dos anos, chegando mesmo a ser usada pelo consumidor final, como por exemplo em Smartphones. As suas aplicações são, portanto, bastante diversas, desde soluções de segurança até simples entretenimento. Para estas duas áreas será assim feito um estudo com base numa pesquisa de publicações de autores da respetiva área. Desde os cenários de utilização, até aspetos mais específicos de cada uma destas áreas, será assim transmitido este conhecimento para o leitor, o que permitirá uma maior compreensão por parte deste nos aspetos relativos ao desenvolvimento da solução. Com o estudo destas duas áreas efetuado, é então feita uma contextualização do problema em relação à área de atuação da empresa e quais as abordagens possíveis. É também descrito todo o processo de análise e conceção, assim como o próprio desenvolvimento numa vertente mais técnica da solução implementada. Por fim, são apresentados alguns exemplos de resultados obtidos já após a implementação da solução.

Analysis of Electricity Market Prices Using Multidimensional Scaling

This paper studies the impact of the energy upon electricity markets using Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). Data from major energy and electricity markets is considered. Several maps produced by MDS are presented and discussed revealing that this method is useful for understanding the correlation between them. Furthermore, the results help electricity markets agents hedging against Market Clearing Price (MCP) volatility.

Cournot model with investments to change the market size

We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.

Crowdsourcing innovation: a strategy to leverage enterprise innovation

Innovation is recognized by academics and practitioners as an essential competitive enabler for any company to survive, to remain competitive and to grow. Investments in tasks of R&D have not always brought the expected results. But that doesn't mean that the outcomes would not be useful to other companies of the same business area or even from another area. Thus, there is much knowledge already available in the market that can be helpful to some and profitable to others. So, the ideas and expertise can be found outside a company's boundaries and also exported from within. Information, knowledge, experience, wisdom is already available in the millions of the human beings of this planet, the challenge is to use them through a network to produce new ideas and tips that can be useful to a company with less costs. This was the reason for the emergence of the area of crowdsourcing innovation. Crowdsourcing innovation is a way of using the Web 2.0 tools to generate new ideas through the heterogeneous knowledge available in the global network of individuals highly qualified and with easy access to information and technology. So, a crowdsourcing innovation broker is an organization that mediates the communication and relationship between the seekers - companies that aspire to solve some problem or to take advantage of any business opportunity - with a crowd that is prone to give ideas based on their knowledge, experience and wisdom. This paper makes a literature review on models of open innovation, crowdsourcing innovation, and technology and knowledge intermediaries, and discusses this new phenomenon as a way to leverage the innovation capacity of enterprises. Finally, the paper outlines a research design agendafor explaining crowdsourcing innovation brokering phenomenon, exploiting its players, main functions, value creation process, and knowledge creation in order to define a knowledge metamodel of such intermediaries.

Scalable Intelligence for Scheduling Systems

A personalização é um aspeto chave de uma interação homem-computador efetiva. Numa era em que existe uma abundância de informação e tantas pessoas a interagir com ela, de muitas maneiras, a capacidade de se ajustar aos seus utilizadores é crucial para qualquer sistema moderno. A criação de sistemas adaptáveis é um domínio bastante complexo que necessita de métodos muito específicos para ter sucesso. No entanto, nos dias de hoje ainda não existe um modelo ou arquitetura padrão para usar nos sistemas adaptativos modernos. A principal motivação desta tese é a proposta de uma arquitetura para modelação do utilizador que seja capaz de incorporar diferentes módulos necessários para criar um sistema com inteligência escalável com técnicas de modelação. Os módulos cooperam de forma a analisar os utilizadores e caracterizar o seu comportamento, usando essa informação para fornecer uma experiência de sistema customizada que irá aumentar não só a usabilidade do sistema mas também a produtividade e conhecimento do utilizador. A arquitetura proposta é constituída por três componentes: uma unidade de informação do utilizador, uma estrutura matemática capaz de classificar os utilizadores e a técnica a usar quando se adapta o conteúdo. A unidade de informação do utilizador é responsável por conhecer os vários tipos de indivíduos que podem usar o sistema, por capturar cada detalhe de interações relevantes entre si e os seus utilizadores e também contém a base de dados que guarda essa informação. A estrutura matemática é o classificador de utilizadores, e tem como tarefa a sua análise e classificação num de três perfis: iniciado, intermédio ou avançado. Tanto as redes de Bayes como as neuronais são utilizadas, e uma explicação de como as preparar e treinar para lidar com a informação do utilizador é apresentada. Com o perfil do utilizador definido torna-se necessária uma técnica para adaptar o conteúdo do sistema. Nesta proposta, uma abordagem de iniciativa mista é apresentada tendo como base a liberdade de tanto o utilizador como o sistema controlarem a comunicação entre si. A arquitetura proposta foi desenvolvida como parte integrante do projeto ADSyS - um sistema de escalonamento dinâmico - utilizado para resolver problemas de escalonamento sujeitos a eventos dinâmicos. Possui uma complexidade elevada mesmo para utilizadores frequentes, daí a necessidade de adaptar o seu conteúdo de forma a aumentar a sua usabilidade. Com o objetivo de avaliar as contribuições deste trabalho, um estudo computacional acerca do reconhecimento dos utilizadores foi desenvolvido, tendo por base duas sessões de avaliação de usabilidade com grupos de utilizadores distintos. Foi possível concluir acerca dos benefícios na utilização de técnicas de modelação do utilizador com a arquitetura proposta.

User Profiling and Knowledge Extraction For Tourism

O sector do turismo é uma área francamente em crescimento em Portugal e que tem desenvolvido a sua divulgação e estratégia de marketing. Contudo, apenas se prende com indicadores de desempenho e de oferta instalada (número de quartos, hotéis, voos, estadias), deixando os indicadores estatísticos em segundo plano. De acordo com o “ Travel & tourism Competitiveness Report 2013”, do World Economic Forum, classifica Portugal em 72º lugar no que respeita à qualidade e cobertura da informação estatística, disponível para o sector do Turismo. Refira-se que Espanha ocupa o 3º lugar. Uma estratégia de mercado, sem base analítica, que sustente um quadro de orientações específico e objetivo, com relevante conhecimento dos mercados alvo, dificilmente é compreensível ou até mesmo materializável. A implementação de uma estrutura de Business Intelligence que permita a realização de um levantamento e tratamento de dados que possibilite relacionar e sustentar os resultados obtidos no sector do turismo revela-se fundamental e crucial, para que sejam criadas estratégias de mercado. Essas estratégias são realizadas a partir da informação dos turistas que nos visitam, e dos potenciais turistas, para que possam ser cativados no futuro. A análise das características e dos padrões comportamentais dos turistas permite definir perfis distintos e assim detetar as tendências de mercado, de forma a promover a oferta dos produtos e serviços mais adequados. O conhecimento obtido permite, por um lado criar e disponibilizar os produtos mais atrativos para oferecer aos turistas e por outro informá-los, de uma forma direcionada, da existência desses produtos. Assim, a associação de uma recomendação personalizada que, com base no conhecimento de perfis do turista proceda ao aconselhamento dos melhores produtos, revela-se como uma ferramenta essencial na captação e expansão de mercado.