Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

Influence of cardiorespiratory fitness and parental lifestyle on adolescents' abdominal obesity

The aims of this study were (1) to analyse the influence of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and parental overweight status (POS) and socioeconomic status (SES) on abdominal obesity. This study was comprised of 779 adolescents (12-18 years). Waist-height ratio (WHtR), 20 m shuttle-run test to ascertain CRF, POS according to World Health Organization recommendations and SES of parents using level of education were analysed. Using WHtR, the prevalence of abdominal obesity was 21.3% (23.5% girls and 17.9% boys; p = 0.062). Regardless of gender, participants who belonged to the WHtR risk group had significantly (p ≤ 0.05) lower CRF scores than the WHtR non-risk group; 84.4% of girls who belonged to the WHtR risk group had one or two overweight parents (p ≤ 0.05). Boys with low CRF (OR: 6.43; CI: 3.33-12.39) were more likely to belong to the WHtR risk group compared with their lean peers. Girls with low CRF (OR: 1.78; CI: 1.14-2.78) and with at least one overweight parent (OR: 2.50; CI: 1.07-5.85) or two overweight parents (OR: 4.90; CI: 2.08-11.54) were associated with the risk of abdominal obesity. This study highlights the influence of adolescents' family on abdominal obesity, especially in girls. Further, the data suggested that low CRF was a strong predictor of risk values of abdominal obesity in adolescence.

The relationship of cardiorespiratory fitness, birth weight and parental BMI on adolescents’ obesity status

The aims of this study were as follows: (1) to analyze differences in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), parents' body mass index (BMI) and birth weight (BW) between non-overweight (NOW) and overweight/obese (OV/OB) adolescents, and (2) to investigate the association of those variables with the risk of their biological offspring being OV/OB. This study comprised 788 adolescents (477 girls and 311 boys), aged between 12 and 18 years. CRF was predicted by maximal multistage 20-m shuttle-run test according to the procedures described in FITNESSGRAM. Children's BMI was classified according to the International Obesity Task Force. Adolescents' BW was assessed from each child's pediatric record at birth. Parents' OV/OB status was defined and classified according to the World Health Organization. Socioeconomic status was defined by parental education. The prevalence OV/OB was 21.4 and 5.3%, respectively, and there were no gender differences. The OV/OB adolescents (girls and boys) had significantly (P

Fiscal decentralisation and economic theory

There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.

Aplicação do modelo de Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteira no índice PSI-20

Os mercados financeiros têm um papel fundamental na dinamização das economias modernas. Às empresas cotadas oferece o capital necessário para impulsionar o seu crescimento e aos investidores individuais proporciona a diversificação das suas carteiras, usufruindo desta forma do crescimento e da vitalidade da economia mundial. A gestão de carteiras de ativos financeiros constitui uma área que procura apresentar mecanismos para a obtenção de uma relação ótima entre retorno e risco. Neste sentido, inúmeros estudos têm contribuído de forma significativa para a eficiência e para a prática desta técnica. Esta dissertação pretende analisar a metodologia desenvolvida por Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteiras otimizadas e aplicar as técnicas subjacentes ao mercado acionista português. Para o efeito, serão realizadas pesquisas em fontes bibliográficas da especialidade e serão consultadas bases de dados de cotações históricas das ações e do índice de mercado nacional. A aplicação incidiu sobre ações cotadas no índice PSI-20 durante o período compreendido entre 2010 e 2014. No intuito de melhorar a compreensão das séries de retornos das amostras, o estudo de caráter quantitativo também recorreu à análise estatística. As evidências mostram que a carteira otimizada, no período em análise, contém apenas as ações da empresa Portucel. Este resultado estará condicionado pelos efeitos da crise financeira que iniciou em 2008.