Complex dynamics of financial indices

This paper presents a novel method for the analysis of nonlinear financial and economic systems. The modeling approach integrates the classical concepts of state space representation and time series regression. The analytical and numerical scheme leads to a parameter space representation that constitutes a valid alternative to represent the dynamical behavior. The results reveal that business cycles can be clearly revealed, while the noise effects common in financial indices can elegantly be filtered out of the results.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

Fractional dynamics in financial indexes

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from 32 worldwide stock market indices during the period 2000–2009 at a daily time horizon. Stock market indices are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of physical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. In this perspective are applied the classical concepts of signal analysis, Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional dynamical systems.

Analysis of financial data series using fractional Fourier transform and multidimensional scaling

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indexes during the period 2000–2009. We analyze, under a regional criterium, ten main indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of dynamical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, fractional Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt the multidimensional scaling approach. Stock market indexes are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. Therefore, these indexes, viewed from a different perspectives, lead to new classification patterns.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Integrated biomarker responses of an estuarine invertebrate to high abiotic stress and decreased metal contamination

An integrated chemical-biological effects monitoring was performed in 2010 and 2012 in two NW Iberian estuaries under different anthropogenic pressure. One is low impacted and the other is contaminated by metals. The aim was to verify the usefulness of a multibiomarker approach, using Carcinus maenas as bioindicator species, to reflect diminishing environmental contamination and improved health status under abiotic variation. Sampling sites were assessed for metal levels in sediments and C. maenas, water abiotic factors and biomarkers (neurotoxicity, energy metabolism, biotransformation, anti-oxidant defences, oxidative damage). High inter-annual and seasonal abiotic variation was observed. Metal levels in sediments and crab tissues were markedly higher in 2010 than in 2012 in the contaminated estuary. Biomarkers indicated differences between the study sites and seasons and an improvement of effects measured in C. maenas from the polluted estuary in 2012. Integrated Biomarker Response (IBR) index depicted sites with higher stress levels whereas Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed associations between biomarker responses and environmental variables. The multibiomarker approach and integrated assessments proved to be useful to the early diagnosis of remediation measures in impacted sites.

Modification of cell volume and proliferative capacity of Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata cells exposed to metal stress

The impact of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu and Zn) on growth, cell volume and cell division of the freshwateralga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata exposed over a period of 72 h was investigated. The algal cells wereexposed to three nominal concentrations of each metal: low (closed to 72 h-EC10values), intermediate(closed to 72 h-EC50values) and high (upper than 72 h-EC90values). The exposure to low metal concen-trations resulted in a decrease of cell volume. On the contrary, for the highest metal concentrations anincrease of cell volume was observed; this effect was particularly notorious for Cd and less pronouncedfor Zn. Two behaviours were found when algal cells were exposed to intermediate concentrations ofmetals: Cu(II) and Cr(VI) induced a reduction of cell volume, while Cd(II) and Zn(II) provoked an oppositeeffect. The simultaneous nucleus staining and cell image analysis, allowed distinguishing three phases inP. subcapitata cell cycle: growth of mother cell; cell division, which includes two divisions of the nucleus;and, release of four autospores. The exposure of P. subcapitata cells to the highest metal concentrationsresulted in the arrest of cell growth before the first nucleus division [for Cr(VI) and Cu(II)] or after thesecond nucleus division but before the cytokinesis (release of autospores) when exposed to Cd(II). Thedifferent impact of metals on algal cell volume and cell-cycle progression, suggests that different toxic-ity mechanisms underlie the action of different metals studied. The simultaneous nucleus staining andcell image analysis, used in the present work, can be a useful tool in the analysis of the toxicity of thepollutants, in P. subcapitata, and help in the elucidation of their different modes of action.

Mitochondria are the main source and one of the targets of Pb (lead)-induced oxidative stress in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is a useful model organism for studying lead (Pb) toxicity. Yeast cells of a laboratory S. cerevisiae strain (WT strain) were incubated with Pb concentrations up to 1,000 μmol/l for 3 h. Cells exposed to Pb lost proliferation capacity without damage to the cell membrane, and they accumulated intracellular superoxide anion (O2 .−) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). The involvement of the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC) in the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) induced by Pb was evaluated. For this purpose, an isogenic derivative ρ0 strain, lacking mitochondrial DNA, was used. The ρ0 strain, without respiratory competence, displayed a lower intracellular ROS accumulation and a higher resistance to Pb compared to the WT strain. The kinetic study of ROS generation in yeast cells exposed to Pb showed that the production of O2 .− precedes the accumulation of H2O2, which is compatible with the leakage of electrons from the mitochondrial ETC. Yeast cells exposed to Pb displayed mutations at the mitochondrial DNA level. This is most likely a consequence of oxidative stress. In conclusion, mitochondria are an important source of Pb-induced ROS and, simultaneously, one of the targets of its toxicity.

Math without stress – an open online learning project

MOOC (as an acronym for Massive Open Online Courses) are a quite new model for the delivery of online learning to students. As “Massive” and “Online”, these courses are proposed to be accessible to many more learners than would be possible through conventional teaching. As “Open” they are (frequently) free of charge and participation is not limited by the geographical situation of the learners, creating new learning opportunities in Higher Education Institutions (HEI). In this paper we describe a recently started project “Matemática 100 STRESS” (Math Without STRESS) integrated in the e-IPP project | e-Learning Unit of Porto’s Polytechnic Institute (IPP) which has created its own MOOC platform and launched its first course – Probabilities and Combinatorics – in early June/2014. In this MOOC development were involved several lecturers from four of the seven IPP schools.

A fractional perspective to financial indices

The application of mathematical methods and computer algorithms in the analysis of economic and financial data series aims to give empirical descriptions of the hidden relations between many complex or unknown variables and systems. This strategy overcomes the requirement for building models based on a set of ‘fundamental laws’, which is the paradigm for studying phenomena usual in physics and engineering. In spite of this shortcut, the fact is that financial series demonstrate to be hard to tackle, involving complex memory effects and a apparently chaotic behaviour. Several measures for describing these objects were adopted by market agents, but, due to their simplicity, they are not capable to cope with the diversity and complexity embedded in the data. Therefore, it is important to propose new measures that, on one hand, are highly interpretable by standard personal but, on the other hand, are capable of capturing a significant part of the dynamical effects.

Impacto da Radioterapia no stress oxidativo em modelos celulares radiorresistentes em contexto de obesidade

Introdução: Estudos anteriores em modelos tumorais de glioma e melanoma, tumores radiorresistentes, indicaram que a obesidade pode estar relacionada com um aumento do status oxidativo e com a diminuição da resistência à radiação. Como a Radioterapia é o tratamento frequentemente utilizado para esta patologia, propomo-nos, desta forma, a explorar a influência da obesidade em células de glioma, as BC3H1, e melanoma, B16F10, submetidas a Radioterapia, na presença de agentes oxidantes e antioxidantes, para o estudo da sua influência ao nível da viabilidade celular e do impacto do stress oxidativo. Métodos: As células BC3H1 e B16F10 foram tratadas com t-BOOH (150μM e 50 μM, respetivamente), TUDCA (25μM e 1μM, respetivamente) e com a mistura de t-BOOH+TUDCA em meio DMEM sem soro e meio condicionado (CM), a partir de adipócitos 3T3-L1. Em seguida, parte das células foram irradiadas com uma dose total de 2Gy. Posteriormente avaliou-se a viabilidade celular (teste MTT) e o stress oxidativo (teste TBARS, atividade da catalase, concentração da GSH, e status antioxidante total), às 4h e 12h. Resultados: Observou-se um aumento da capacidade antioxidante total das células irradiadas, comparativamente com as células não irradiadas. O meio condicionado reduziu o stress oxidativo nas BC3H1, ao mesmo tempo que reduziu a sua viabilidade celular. O TUDCA nas células incubadas com MC e submetidas a radioterapia, tendencialmente diminuiu a viabilidade celular, nas concertações em estudo. Discussão/Conclusão: O meio condicionado e a radioterapia, por si só, aumentam a resposta antioxidante total na célula, às 4h e às 12h. O TUDCA nas células incubadas com meio condicionado e submetidas a radioterapia, teve um comportamento citotóxico para as BC3H1, nas concentrações testadas. Revelando a necessidade de aprofundar os estudos da ação deste composto como agente radiossensibilizador, neste e noutros modelos celulares de carcinogénese.

Matemática 100 stress: um projeto aberto no IPP

A Era Tecnológica em que nos vemos inseridos, cujos avanços acontecem a uma velocidade vertiginosa exige, por parte das Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) uma atitude proactiva no sentido de utilização dos muitos recursos disponíveis. Por outro lado, os elementos próprios da sociedade da informação – flexibilidade, formação ao longo da vida, acessibilidade à informação, mobilidade, entre muito outros – atuam como fortes impulsionadores externos para que as IES procurem e analisem novas modalidades formativas. Perante a mobilidade crescente, que se tem revelado massiva, a aprendizagem tende a ser cada vez mais individualizada, visual e prática. A conjugação de várias formas/tipologias de transmissão de conhecimento, de métodos didáticos e mesmo de ambientes e situações de aprendizagem induzem uma melhor adaptação do estudante, que poderá procurar aqueles que melhor vão ao encontro das suas expetativas, isto é, favorecem um processo de ensino-aprendizagem eficiente na perspetiva da forma de aprender de cada um. A definição de políticas estratégicas relacionadas com novas modalidades de ensino/formação tem sido uma preocupação constante na nossa instituição, nomeadamente no domínio do ensino à distância, seja ele e-Learning, b-Learning ou, mais recentemente, “open-Learning”, onde se inserem os MOOC – Massive Open Online Courses (não esquecendo a vertente m-Learning), de acordo com as várias tendências europeias (OECD, 2007) (Comissão Europeia, 2014) e com os objetivos da “Europa 2020”. Neste sentido surge o Projeto Matemática 100 STRESS, integrado no projeto e-IPP | Unidade de e-Learning do Politécnico do Porto que criou a sua plataforma MOOC, abrindo em junho de 2014 o seu primeiro curso – Probabilidades e Combinatória. Pretendemos dar a conhecer este Projeto, e em particular este curso, que envolveu vários docentes de diferentes unidades orgânicas do IPP.

Math without stress: an open online learning project

MOOC (as an acronym for Massive Open Online Courses) are a quite new model for the delivery of online learning to students. As “Massive” and “Online”, these courses are proposed to be accessible to many more learners than would be possible through conventional teaching. As “Open” they are (frequently) free of charge and participation is not limited by the geographical situation of the learners, creating new learning opportunities in Higher Education Institutions (HEI). In this paper we describe a recently started project “Matemática 100 STRESS” (Math Without STRESS) integrated in the e-IPP project | e-Learning Unit of Porto’s Polytechnic Institute (IPP) which has created its own MOOC platform and launched its first course – Probabilities and Combinatorics – in early June/2014. In this MOOC development were involved several lecturers from four of the seven IPP schools.