Beliefs and Conflicts in a Real World Multi-Agent System

In a real world multiagent system, where the agents are faced with partial, incomplete and intrinsically dynamic knowledge, conflicts are inevitable. Frequently, different agents have goals or beliefs that cannot hold simultaneously. Conflict resolution methodologies have to be adopted to overcome such undesirable occurrences. In this paper we investigate the application of distributed belief revision techniques as the support for conflict resolution in the analysis of the validity of the candidate beams to be produced in the CERN particle accelerators. This CERN multiagent system contains a higher hierarchy agent, the Specialist agent, which makes use of meta-knowledge (on how the con- flicting beliefs have been produced by the other agents) in order to detect which beliefs should be abandoned. Upon solving a conflict, the Specialist instructs the involved agents to revise their beliefs accordingly. Conflicts in the problem domain are mapped into conflicting beliefs of the distributed belief revision system, where they can be handled by proven formal methods. This technique builds on well established concepts and combines them in a new way to solve important problems. We find this approach generally applicable in several domains.

Convergence to the European Energy Policy in European countries: case studies and comparison

Purpose – Our paper aims at analyzing how different European countries cope with the European Energy Policy, which proposes a set of measures (free energy market, smart meters, energy certificates) to improve energy utilization and management in Europe. Design/methodology/approach – The paper first reports the general vision, regulations and goals set up by Europe to implement the European Energy Policy. Later on, it performs an analysis of how some European countries are coping with the goals, with financial, legal, economical and regulatory measures. Finally, the paper draws a comparison between the countries to present a view on how Europe is responding to the emerging energy emergency of the modern world. Findings – Our analysis on different use cases (countries) showed that European countries are converging to a common energy policy, even though some countries appear to be later than others In particular, Southern European countries were slowed down by the world financial and economical crisis. Still, it appears that contingency plans were put into action, and Europe as a whole is proceeding steadily towards the common vision. Research limitations/implications – European countries are applying yet more cuts to financing green technologies, and it is not possible to predict clearly how each country will evolve its support to the European energy policy. Practical implications – Different countries applied the concepts and measures in different ways. The implementation of the European energy policy has to cope with the resulting plethora of regulations, and a company proposing enhancement regarding energy management still has to possess robust knowledge of the single country, before being able to export experience and know-how between European countries. Originality/Value – Even though a few surveys on energy measures in Europe are already part of the state-of-the-art, organic analysis diagonal to the different topics of the European Energy Policy is missing. Moreover, this paper highlights how European countries are converging on a common view, and provides some details on the differences between the countries, thus facilitating parties interesting into cross-country export of experience and technology for energy management.

The role of molecular imaging in modern drug development

Drug development represents a highly complex, inefficient and costly process. Over the past decade, the widespread use of nuclear imaging, owing to its functional and molecular nature, has proven to be a determinant in improving the efficiency in selecting the candidate drugs that should either be abandoned or moved forward into clinical trials. This helps not only with the development of safer and effective drugs but also with the shortening of time-to-market. The modern concept and future trends concerning molecular imaging will assumedly be hybrid or multimodality imaging, including combinations between high sensitivity and functional (molecular) modalities with high spatial resolution and morphological techniques.

Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

A Fractional Perspective to the Bond Graph Modelling of World Economies

Inspired in dynamic systems theory and Brewer’s contributions to apply it to economics, this paper establishes a bond graph model. Two main variables, a set of inter-connectivities based on nodes and links (bonds) and a fractional order dynamical perspective, prove to be a good macro-economic representation of countries’ potential performance in nowadays globalization. The estimations based on time series for 50 countries throughout the last 50 decades confirm the accuracy of the model and the importance of scale for economic performance.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

How does gender affect visiting a world heritage site?

To date few studies have been undertaken in Portugal dealing with the attitudes, motivations, and profile of tourists who visit World Heritage Sites. Also, few studies have dealt with destination image (e.g., Agapito, Mendes & Valle, 2010; Lopes, 2011). As far as it is known, none have approached the issue of gender differences in the choice of a Portuguese heritage destination. Since cultural tourism destinations need to differentiate themselves from each other, appropriate market segmentation must be based on a deep understanding of the customers’ motivations and preferences. Keeping in mind results from empirical literature (e.g., Silberberg, 1995; Beerli & Martin, 2004; Richards, 2004; Pérez, 2009; Sheng, Shen, & Chen, 2008), gender seems to be a possible approach to market segmentation, whether for Guimarães or for other cultural tourism destinations around the world. Located in the north-western region of Portugal, Guimarães is a city of strong symbolic and cultural significance, and the nomination of its historical centre as a World Heritage Site in 2001 enhanced its tourism potential. This study analyses the possible relation between gender and attitudes and motivations towards a World Heritage Site, such as Guimarães. Additionally, the empirical approach used in the study tries to capture differences in the perceived attributes of the city. Commonalities and distinctions within and between groups of tourists, by focusing on the specific characteristic of gender, were analysed. The study addressed two main questions: first, whether males and females have similar or different preferences in choosing the city as their destination; and, second, whether there are gender differences in the perception of the attributes of Guimarães. A better understanding of the gendered nature of the destination is a valuable cue for shaping products and services according to visitors’ preferences.

Multidimensional Scalling Analysis of the World Economy During the Period 1972-2012

The last 40 years of the world economy are analyzed by means of computer visualization methods. Multidimensional scaling and the hierarchical clustering tree techniques are used. The current Western downturn in favor of Asian partners may still be reversed in the coming decades.

Aplicação do modelo de Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteira no índice PSI-20

Os mercados financeiros têm um papel fundamental na dinamização das economias modernas. Às empresas cotadas oferece o capital necessário para impulsionar o seu crescimento e aos investidores individuais proporciona a diversificação das suas carteiras, usufruindo desta forma do crescimento e da vitalidade da economia mundial. A gestão de carteiras de ativos financeiros constitui uma área que procura apresentar mecanismos para a obtenção de uma relação ótima entre retorno e risco. Neste sentido, inúmeros estudos têm contribuído de forma significativa para a eficiência e para a prática desta técnica. Esta dissertação pretende analisar a metodologia desenvolvida por Elton-Gruber para a construção de carteiras otimizadas e aplicar as técnicas subjacentes ao mercado acionista português. Para o efeito, serão realizadas pesquisas em fontes bibliográficas da especialidade e serão consultadas bases de dados de cotações históricas das ações e do índice de mercado nacional. A aplicação incidiu sobre ações cotadas no índice PSI-20 durante o período compreendido entre 2010 e 2014. No intuito de melhorar a compreensão das séries de retornos das amostras, o estudo de caráter quantitativo também recorreu à análise estatística. As evidências mostram que a carteira otimizada, no período em análise, contém apenas as ações da empresa Portucel. Este resultado estará condicionado pelos efeitos da crise financeira que iniciou em 2008.