Analysis of financial data series using fractional Fourier transform and multidimensional scaling

The goal of this study is the analysis of the dynamical properties of financial data series from worldwide stock market indexes during the period 2000–2009. We analyze, under a regional criterium, ten main indexes at a daily time horizon. The methods and algorithms that have been explored for the description of dynamical phenomena become an effective background in the analysis of economical data. We start by applying the classical concepts of signal analysis, fractional Fourier transform, and methods of fractional calculus. In a second phase we adopt the multidimensional scaling approach. Stock market indexes are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exists. Therefore, these indexes, viewed from a different perspectives, lead to new classification patterns.

Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Fresh-cut aromatic herbs: Nutritional quality stability during shelf-life

Fresh-cut vegetables are a successful convenient healthy food. Nowadays, the presence of new varieties of minimally processed vegetables in the market is common in response to the consumers demand for new flavours and high quality products. Within the most recent fresh-cut products are the aromatic herbs. In this work, the objective was to evaluate the nutritional quality and stability of four fresh-cut aromatic herbs. Several physicochemical quality characteristics (colour, pH, total soluble solids, and total titratable acidity) were monitored in fresh-cut chives, coriander, spearmint and parsley leaves, stored under refrigeration (3 ± 1 ºC) during 10 days. Their nutritional composition was determined, including mineral composition (phosphorous, potassium, sodium, calcium, magnesium, iron, zinc, manganese and copper) and fat- and water-soluble vitamin contents. Total soluble phenolics, flavonoids and the antioxidant capacity were determined by spectrophotometric methods. The aromatic herbs kept their fresh appearance during the storage, maintaining their colour throughout shelf-life. Their macronutrient composition and mineral content were stable during storage. Coriander had the highest mineral and fatsoluble vitamin content, while spearmint showed the best scores in the phenolic, flavonoid and antioxidant capacity assays. Vitamins and antioxidant capacity showed some variation during storage, with a differential behaviour of each compound according to the sample.

Microencapsulation of herbicide MCPA with native beta-cyclodextrin and its methyl and hydroxypropyl derivatives: An experimental and theoretical investigation

When a pesticide is released into the environment, most of it is lost before it reaches its target. An effective way to reduce environmental losses of pesticides is by using controlled release technology. Microencapsulation becomes a promising technique for the production of controlled release agricultural formulations. In this work, the microencapsulation of chlorophenoxy herbicide MCPA with native b-cyclodextrin and its methyl and hydroxypropyl derivatives was investigated. The phase solubility study showed that both native and b-CD derivatives increased the water solubility of the herbicide and inclusion complexes are formed in a stoichiometric ratio of 1:1. The stability constants describing the extent of formation of the complexes have been determined by phase solubility studies. 1H NMR experiments were also accomplished for the prepared solid systems and the data gathered confirm the formation of the inclusion complexes. 1H NMR data obtained for the MCPA/CDs complexes disclosed noticeable proton shift displacements for OCH2 group and H6 aromatic proton of MCPA provided clear evidence of inclusion complexation process, suggesting that the phenyl moiety of the herbicide was included in the hydrophobic cavity of CDs. Free energy molecular mechanics calculations confirm all these findings. The gathered results can be regarded as an essential step to the development of controlled release agricultural formulations containing herbicide MCPA.

A fractional perspective to financial indices

The application of mathematical methods and computer algorithms in the analysis of economic and financial data series aims to give empirical descriptions of the hidden relations between many complex or unknown variables and systems. This strategy overcomes the requirement for building models based on a set of ‘fundamental laws’, which is the paradigm for studying phenomena usual in physics and engineering. In spite of this shortcut, the fact is that financial series demonstrate to be hard to tackle, involving complex memory effects and a apparently chaotic behaviour. Several measures for describing these objects were adopted by market agents, but, due to their simplicity, they are not capable to cope with the diversity and complexity embedded in the data. Therefore, it is important to propose new measures that, on one hand, are highly interpretable by standard personal but, on the other hand, are capable of capturing a significant part of the dynamical effects.

Dynamical Stability and Predictability of Football Players: The Study of One Match

The game of football demands new computational approaches to measure individual and collective performance. Understanding the phenomena involved in the game may foster the identification of strengths and weaknesses, not only of each player, but also of the whole team. The development of assertive quantitative methodologies constitutes a key element in sports training. In football, the predictability and stability inherent in the motion of a given player may be seen as one of the most important concepts to fully characterise the variability of the whole team. This paper characterises the predictability and stability levels of players during an official football match. A Fractional Calculus (FC) approach to define a player’s trajectory. By applying FC, one can benefit from newly considered modeling perspectives, such as the fractional coefficient, to estimate a player’s predictability and stability. This paper also formulates the concept of attraction domain, related to the tactical region of each player, inspired by stability theory principles. To compare the variability inherent in the player’s process variables (e.g., distance covered) and to assess his predictability and stability, entropy measures are considered. Experimental results suggest that the most predictable player is the goalkeeper while, conversely, the most unpredictable players are the midfielders. We also conclude that, despite his predictability, the goalkeeper is the most unstable player, while lateral defenders are the most stable during the match.

A estruturação dos determinantes relevantes no processo de decisão do investimento direto estrangeiro em Portugal e em Espanha

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação do Dr. Luís Pereira Gomes

Stability of the Transthyretin Molecule as a Key Factor in

Transthyretin (TTR) protects against A-Beta toxicity by binding the peptide thus inhibiting its aggregation. Previous work showed different TTR mutations interact differently with A-Beta, with increasing affinities correlating with decreasing amyloidogenecity of the TTR mutant; this did not impact on the levels of inhibition of A-Beta aggregation, as assessed by transmission electron microscopy. Our work aimed at probing differences in binding to A-Beta by WT, T119M and L55P TTR using quantitative assays, and at identifying factors affecting this interaction. We addressed the impact of such factors in TTR ability to degrade A-Beta. Using a dot blot approach with the anti-oligomeric antibody A11, we showed that A-Beta formed oligomers transiently, indicating aggregation and fibril formation, whereas in the presence of WT and T119M TTR the oligomers persisted longer, indicative that these variants avoided further aggregation into fibrils. In contrast, L55PTTR was not able to inhibit oligomerization or to prevent evolution to aggregates and fibrils. Furthermore, apoptosis assessment showed WT and T119M TTR were able to protect against A-Beta toxicity. Because the amyloidogenic potential of TTR is inversely correlated with its stability, the use of drugs able to stabilize TTR tetrameric fold could result in increased TTR/ABeta binding. Here we showed that iododiflunisal, 3-dinitrophenol, resveratrol, [2-(3,5-dichlorophenyl)amino] (DCPA) and [4- (3,5-difluorophenyl)] (DFPB) were able to increase TTR binding to A-Beta; however only DCPA and DFPB improved TTR proteolytic activity. Thyroxine, a TTR ligand, did not influence TTR/A-Beta interaction and A-Beta degradation by TTR, whereas RBP, another TTR ligand, not only obstructed the interaction but also inhibited TTR proteolytic activity. Our results showed differences between WT and T119M TTR, and L55PTTR mutant regarding their interaction with A-Beta and prompt the stability of TTR as a key factor in this interaction, which may be relevant in AD pathogenesis and for the design of therapeutic TTR-based therapies.

Multi-Objective and Financial Portfolio Optimization of Carrier-Sense Multiple Access Protocols with Cooperative Diversity

8th International Workshop on Multiple Access Communications (MACOM2015), Helsinki, Finland.

Dynamic stability metrics for the container loading problem

The Container Loading Problem (CLP) literature has traditionally evaluated the dynamic stability of cargo by applying two metrics to box arrangements: the mean number of boxes supporting the items excluding those placed directly on the floor (M1) and the percentage of boxes with insufficient lateral support (M2). However, these metrics, that aim to be proxies for cargo stability during transportation, fail to translate real-world cargo conditions of dynamic stability. In this paper two new performance indicators are proposed to evaluate the dynamic stability of cargo arrangements: the number of fallen boxes (NFB) and the number of boxes within the Damage Boundary Curve fragility test (NB_DBC). Using 1500 solutions for well-known problem instances found in the literature, these new performance indicators are evaluated using a physics simulation tool (StableCargo), replacing the real-world transportation by a truck with a simulation of the dynamic behaviour of container loading arrangements. Two new dynamic stability metrics that can be integrated within any container loading algorithm are also proposed. The metrics are analytical models of the proposed stability performance indicators, computed by multiple linear regression. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient was used as an evaluation parameter for the performance of the models. The extensive computational results show that the proposed metrics are better proxies for dynamic stability in the CLP than the previous widely used metrics.

Modelo de avaliação de risco no sector bancário português

A globalização dos sistemas financeiros, ao longo dos anos, tem estimulado uma crescente necessidade de supervisão bancária nas instituições financeiras. O Comité de Supervisão Bancária de Basileia tem tido um papel crucial nesta área, estabelecendo princípios por via dos seus acordos entre as várias entidades nacionais de regulação e supervisão das maiores economias mundiais. Em 1988, foi criado o Acordo de Basileia (Basileia I) pelo Comité de Supervisão Bancária de forma a harmonizar os padrões de supervisão bancária. Este acordo estabeleceu mínimos de solvabilidade para o sistema bancário internacional no sentido de reforçar a sua solidez e estabilidade. Com o desenvolvimento de novas potências económicas e novas necessidades regulamentares, em Junho de 2004, foi publicado o novo Acordo de Capital – o Basileia II. Este acordo pretendia tornar os requisitos de capital mais sensíveis ao risco, promover a atuação das autoridades de supervisão e a disciplina de mercado (através do seu Pilar II) e encorajar a capacidade de cada instituição mensurar e gerir o seu risco. Em Setembro de 2010, o Acordo de Basileia III, com adoção prevista até 2019, veio reforçar estas medidas com a criação de um quadro regulamentar e de supervisão mais sólido, por parte das instituições de crédito. Surge, assim neste contexto, o Modelo de Avaliação de Risco (MAR) para o sector bancário. Em Portugal, o MAR tem como objetivo avaliar o perfil de risco das instituições de crédito, sujeitas à supervisão do Banco de Portugal, assim como apresentar o perfil de risco e a solidez da situação financeira de cada instituição de crédito. Este trabalho pretende avaliar o surgimento e a caracterização deste modelo e identificar as variáveis a ter em conta nos modelos de avaliação de risco a nível qualitativo e quantitativo.