Strategic bidding in electricity markets: an agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Comparing the schedulers and power saving strategies with SPARTS

We have developed SPARTS, a simulator of a generic embedded real-time device. It is designed to be extensible to accommodate different task properties, scheduling algorithms and/or hardware models for the wide variety of applications. SPARTS was developed to help the community investigate the behaviour of the real-time embedded systems and to quantify the associated constraints/overheads.

Coordinated runtime adaptations in cooperative open real-time systems

This paper proposes an one-step decentralised coordination model based on an effective feedback mechanism to reduce the complexity of the needed interactions among interdependent nodes of a cooperative distributed system until a collective adaptation behaviour is determined. Positive feedback is used to reinforce the selection of the new desired global service solution, while negative feedback discourages nodes to act in a greedy fashion as this adversely impacts on the provided service levels at neighbouring nodes. The reduced complexity and overhead of the proposed decentralised coordination model are validated through extensive evaluations.

Coordinated transportation of a large object by a team of three robots

Dynamical systems theory in this work is used as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for a team of three robots that must transport a large object and simultaneously avoid collisions with either static or dynamic obstacles. The robots have no prior knowledge of the environment. The dynamics of behavior is defined over a state space of behavior variables, heading direction and path velocity. Task constraints are modeled as attractors (i.e. asymptotic stable states) of the behavioral dynamics. For each robot, these attractors are combined into a vector field that governs the behavior. By design the parameters are tuned so that the behavioral variables are always very close to the corresponding attractors. Thus the behavior of each robot is controlled by a time series of asymptotical stable states. Computer simulations support the validity of the dynamical model architecture.

Coordinated transportation of a large object by a team of two robots

In this paper dynamical systems theory is used as a theoretical language and tool to design a distributed control architecture for a team of two robots that must transport a large object and simultaneously avoid collisions with obstacles (either static or dynamic). This work extends the previous work with two robots (see [1] and [5]). However here we demonstrate that it’s possible to simplify the architecture presented in [1] and [5] and reach an equally stable global behavior. The robots have no prior knowledge of the environment. The dynamics of behavior is defined over a state space of behavior variables, heading direction and path velocity. Task constrains are modeled as attractors (i.e. asymptotic stable states) of a behavioral dynamics. For each robot, these attractors are combined into a vector field that governs the behavior. By design the parameters are tuned so that the behavioral variables are always very close to the corresponding attractors. Thus the behavior of each robot is controlled by a time series of asymptotic stable states. Computer simulations support the validity of the dynamical model architecture.

A new approach to assess defragmentation strategies in dynamically reconfigurable FPGAs

Fragmentation on dynamically reconfigurable FPGAs is a major obstacle to the efficient management of the logic space in reconfigurable systems. When resource allocation decisions have to be made at run-time a rearrangement may be necessary to release enough contiguous resources to implement incoming functions. The feasibility of run-time relocation depends on the processing time required to set up rearrangements. Moreover, the performance of the relocated functions should not be affected by this process or otherwise the whole system performance, and even its operation, may be at risk. Relocation should take into account not only specific functional issues, but also the FPGA architecture, since these two aspects are normally intertwined. A simple and fast method to assess performance degradation of a function during relocation and to speed up the defragmentation process, based on previous function labelling and on the application of the Euclidian distance concept, is proposed in this paper.

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: A framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. This paper presents a methodology to provide decision support to electricity market negotiating players. This model allows integrating different strategic approaches for electricity market negotiations, and choosing the most appropriate one at each time, for each different negotiation context. This methodology is integrated in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System) – a multiagent system that provides decision support to MASCEM's negotiating agents so that they can properly achieve their goals. ALBidS uses artificial intelligence methodologies and data analysis algorithms to provide effective adaptive learning capabilities to such negotiating entities. The main contribution is provided by a methodology that combines several distinct strategies to build actions proposals, so that the best can be chosen at each time, depending on the context and simulation circumstances. The choosing process includes reinforcement learning algorithms, a mechanism for negotiating contexts analysis, a mechanism for the management of the efficiency/effectiveness balance of the system, and a mechanism for competitor players' profiles definition.

Race-to-halt energy saving strategies

Energy consumption is one of the major issues for modern embedded systems. Early, power saving approaches mainly focused on dynamic power dissipation, while neglecting the static (leakage) energy consumption. However, technology improvements resulted in a case where static power dissipation increasingly dominates. Addressing this issue, hardware vendors have equipped modern processors with several sleep states. We propose a set of leakage-aware energy management approaches that reduce the energy consumption of embedded real-time systems while respecting the real-time constraints. Our algorithms are based on the race-to-halt strategy that tends to run the system at top speed with an aim to create long idle intervals, which are used to deploy a sleep state. The effectiveness of our algorithms is illustrated with an extensive set of simulations that show an improvement of up to 8% reduction in energy consumption over existing work at high utilization. The complexity of our algorithms is smaller when compared to state-of-the-art algorithms. We also eliminate assumptions made in the related work that restrict the practical application of the respective algorithms. Moreover, a novel study about the relation between the use of sleep intervals and the number of pre-emptions is also presented utilizing a large set of simulation results, where our algorithms reduce the experienced number of pre-emptions in all cases. Our results show that sleep states in general can save up to 30% of the overall number of pre-emptions when compared to the sleep-agnostic earliest-deadline-first algorithm.

Adapting Meeting Tools to Agent Decision

Electricity markets are complex environments comprising several negotiation mechanisms. MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) is a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. Fully integrated with MASCEM it considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches. The Six Thinking Hats is a powerful technique used to look at decisions from different perspectives. This paper aims to complement ALBidS strategies usage by MASCEM players, providing, through the Six Thinking Hats group decision technique, a means to combine them and take advantages from their different perspectives. The combination of the different proposals resulting from ALBidS’ strategies is performed through the application of a Genetic Algorithm, resulting in an evolutionary learning approach.

Reactive power management strategies in future smart grids

The reactive power management in distribution network with large penetration of distributed energy resources is an important task in future power systems. The control of reactive power allows the inclusion of more distributed recourses and a more efficient operation of distributed network. Currently, the reactive power is only controlled in large power plants and in high and very high voltage substations. In this paper, several reactive power control strategies considering a smart grids paradigm are proposed. In this context, the management of distributed energy resources and of the distribution network by an aggregator, namely Virtual Power Player (VPP), is proposed and implemented in a MAS simulation tool. The proposed methods have been computationally implemented and tested using a 32-bus distribution network with intensive use of distributed resources, mainly the distributed generation based on renewable resources. Results concerning the evaluation of the reactive power management algorithms are also presented and compared.

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Strategic Bidding for Electricity Markets Negotiation Using Support Vector Machines

Energy systems worldwide are complex and challenging environments. Multi-agent based simulation platforms are increasing at a high rate, as they show to be a good option to study many issues related to these systems, as well as the involved players at act in this domain. In this scope the authors’ research group has developed a multi-agent system: MASCEM (Multi- Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets), which simulates the electricity markets environment. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS (Adaptive Learning Strategic Bidding System) that works as a decision support system for market players. The ALBidS system allows MASCEM market negotiating players to take the best possible advantages from the market context. This paper presents the application of a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to provide decision support to electricity market players. This strategy is tested and validated by being included in ALBidS and then compared with the application of an Artificial Neural Network, originating promising results. The proposed approach is tested and validated using real electricity markets data from MIBEL - Iberian market operator.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Metalearner based on Dynamic Neural Network for Strategic Bidding in electricity Markets

The restructuring of electricity markets, conducted to increase the competition in this sector, and decrease the electricity prices, brought with it an enormous increase in the complexity of the considered mechanisms. The electricity market became a complex and unpredictable environment, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. Software tools became, therefore, essential to provide simulation and decision support capabilities, in order to potentiate the involved players’ actions. This paper presents the development of a metalearner, applied to the decision support of electricity markets’ negotiation entities. The proposed metalearner executes a dynamic artificial neural network to create its own output, taking advantage on several learning algorithms implemented in ALBidS, an adaptive learning system that provides decision support to electricity markets’ players. The proposed metalearner considers different weights for each strategy, depending on its individual quality of performance. The results of the proposed method are studied and analyzed in scenarios based on real electricity markets’ data, using MASCEM - a multi-agent electricity market simulator that simulates market players’ operation in the market.

Digital marketing strategies

Internship Report presented to Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto for the Master’s degree in Marketing Digital under the guidance of Dr. José Magalhães Author Note This internship was carried out under the Erasmus Program for college students and under the agreement between the sending institution, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto and the host company, eRise, located in Budapest, Hungary, under the guidance of Vilmos Schwarz.