49 resultados para scenario-based assessment
Resumo:
Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.
Resumo:
The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.
Resumo:
Ao longo dos tempos foi possível constatar que uma grande parte do tempo dos professores é gasta na componente de avaliação. Por esse facto, há já algumas décadas que a correcção automática de texto livre é alvo de investigação. Sendo a correcção de exercícios efectuada pelo computador permite que o professor dedique o seu tempo em tarefas que melhorem a aprendizagem dos alunos. Para além disso, cada vez mais as novas tecnologias permitem o uso de ferramentas com bastante utilidade no ensino, pois para além de facilitarem a exposição do conhecimento também permitem uma maior retenção da informação. Logo, associar ferramentas de gestão de sala de aula à correcção automática de respostas de texto livre é um desafio bastante interessante. O objectivo desta dissertação foi a realização de um estudo relativamente à área de avaliação assistida por computador em que este trabalho se insere. Inicialmente, foram analisados alguns correctores ortográficos para seleccionar aquele que seria integrado no módulo proposto. De seguida, foram estudadas as técnicas mais relevantes e as ferramentas que mais se enquadram no âmbito deste trabalho. Neste contexto, a ideia foi partir da existência de uma ferramenta de gestão de sala de aula e desenvolver um módulo para a correcção de exercícios. A aplicação UNI_NET-Classroom, que foi a ferramenta para a qual o módulo foi desenvolvido, já continha um componente de gestão de exercícios que apenas efectuava a correcção para as respostas de escolha múltipla. Com este trabalho pretendeu-se acrescentar mais uma funcionalidade a esse componente, cujo intuito é dar apoio ao professor através da correcção de exercícios e sugestão da cotação a atribuir. Por último, foram realizadas várias experiências sobre o módulo desenvolvido, de forma a ser possível retirar algumas conclusões para o presente trabalho. A conclusão mais importante foi que as ferramentas de correcção automática são uma mais-valia para os professores e escolas.
Resumo:
Worldwide electricity markets have been evolving into regional and even continental scales. The aim at an efficient use of renewable based generation in places where it exceeds the local needs is one of the main reasons. A reference case of this evolution is the European Electricity Market, where countries are connected, and several regional markets were created, each one grouping several countries, and supporting transactions of huge amounts of electrical energy. The continuous transformations electricity markets have been experiencing over the years create the need to use simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and involved players for understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper focuses on demonstrating the advantage that real electricity markets data has for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations will bring to the participant countries. A case study using MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance when using several different market mechanisms.
Resumo:
The dynamism and ongoing changes that the electricity markets sector is constantly suffering, enhanced by the huge increase in competitiveness, create the need of using simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and the involved players in understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper presents an enhanced electricity market simulator, based on multi-agent technology, which provides an advanced simulation framework for the study of real electricity markets operation, and the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) uses real data for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations bring to different countries. Also, the development of an upper-ontology to support the communication between participating agents, provides the means for the integration of this simulator with other frameworks, such as MAN-REM (Multi-Agent Negotiation and Risk Management in Electricity Markets). A case study using the enhanced simulation platform that results from the integration of several systems and different tools is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the MIBEL electricity market environment, and comparing the simulation performance with the real electricity market results.
Resumo:
The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.
Resumo:
Ascorbic acid is found in many food samples. Its clinical and technological importance demands an easyto- use, rapid, robust and inexpensive method of analysis. For this purpose, this work proposes a new flow procedure based on the oxidation of ascorbic acid by periodate. A new potentiometric periodate sensor was constructed to monitor this reaction. The selective membranes were of PVC with porphyrin-based sensing systems and a lipophilic cation as additive. The sensor displayed a near-Nernstian response for periodate over 1.0x10-2–6.0x10-6 M, with an anionic slope of 73.9 ± 0.9 mV decade-1. It was pH independent in acidic media and presented good selectivity features towards several inorganic anions. The flow set-up operated in double-channel, carrying a 5.0x10-4 M IO- 4 solution and a suitable buffer; these were mixed in a 50-cm reaction coil. The overall flow rate was 7 ml min-1 and the injection volume 70 µl. Under these conditions, a linear behaviour against concentration was observed for 17.7–194.0 µg ml-1, presenting slopes of 0.169 mV (mg/l)-1, a reproducibility of ±1.1 mV (n = 5), and a sampling rate of ~96 samples h-1. The proposed method was applied to the analysis of beverages and pharmaceuticals.
Resumo:
Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.
Resumo:
A number of characteristics are boosting the eagerness of extending Ethernet to also cover factory-floor distributed real-time applications. Full-duplex links, non-blocking and priority-based switching, bandwidth availability, just to mention a few, are characteristics upon which that eagerness is building up. But, will Ethernet technologies really manage to replace traditional Fieldbus networks? Ethernet technology, by itself, does not include features above the lower layers of the OSI communication model. In the past few years, it is particularly significant the considerable amount of work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness at a holistic level. To this end, we are addressing a few inter-linked research topics with the purpose of setting a framework for the development of tools suitable to extract temporal properties of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is being applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. In this paper, we reason about the modelling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide usable results. Discrete event simulation models of a distributed system can be a powerful tool for the timeliness evaluation of the overall system, but particular care must be taken with the results provided by traditional statistical analysis techniques.
Resumo:
The problem of uncertainty propagation in composite laminate structures is studied. An approach based on the optimal design of composite structures to achieve a target reliability level is proposed. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a design domain centred at mean values of random variables, aimed at studying the space variability. The most critical Tsai number, the structural reliability index and the sensitivities are obtained for each UDM design point, using the maximum load obtained from optimal design search. Using the UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on supervised evolutionary learning. Finally, using the developed ANN a Monte Carlo simulation procedure is implemented and the variability of the structural response based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is studied. The GSA is based on the first order Sobol indices and relative sensitivities. An appropriate GSA algorithm aiming to obtain Sobol indices is proposed. The most important sources of uncertainty are identified.
Resumo:
The continuous improvement of Ethernet technologies is boosting the eagerness of extending their use to cover factory-floor distributed real time applications. Indeed, it is remarkable the considerable amount of research work that has been devoted to the timing analysis of Ethernet-based technologies in the past few years. It happens, however, that the majority of those works are restricted to the analysis of sub-sets of the overall computing and communication system, thus without addressing timeliness in a holistic fashion. To this end, we address an approach, based on simulation, aiming at extracting temporal properties of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) Ethernet-based factory-floor distributed systems. This framework is applied to a specific COTS technology, Ethernet/IP. We reason about the modeling and simulation of Ethernet/IP-based systems, and on the use of statistical analysis techniques to provide useful results on timeliness. The approach is part of a wider framework related to the research project INDEPTH NDustrial-Ethernet ProTocols under Holistic analysis.
Resumo:
The characteristics of carbon fibre reinforced laminates had widened their use, from aerospace to domestic appliances. A common characteristic is the need of drilling for assembly purposes. It is known that a drilling process that reduces the drill thrust force can decrease the risk of delamination. In this work, delamination assessment methods based on radiographic data are compared and correlated with mechanical test results (bearing test).
Resumo:
The most consumed squid species worldwide were characterized regarding their concentrations of minerals, fatty acids, cholesterol and vitamin E. Interspecific comparisons were assessed among species and geographical origin. The health benefits derived from squid consumption were assessed based on daily minerals intake and on nutritional lipid quality indexes. Squids contribute significantly to daily intake of several macro (Na, K, Mg and P) and micronutrients (Cu, Zn and Ni). Despite their low fat concentration, they are rich in long-chain omega-3 fatty acids, particularly docosahexaenoic (DHA) and eicosapentanoic (EPA) acids, with highly favorable ω-3/ω-6 ratios (from 5.7 to 17.7), reducing the significance of their high cholesterol concentration (140–549 mg/100 g ww). Assessment of potential health risks based on minerals intake, non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks indicated that Loligo gahi (from Atlantic Ocean), Loligo opalescens (from Pacific Ocean) and Loligo duvaucelii (from Indic Ocean) should be eaten with moderation due to the high concentrations of Cu and/or Cd. Canonical discriminant analysis identified the major fatty acids (C14:0, C18:0, C18:1, C18:3ω-3, C20:4ω-6 and C22:5ω-6), P, K, Cu and vitamin E as chemical discriminators for the selected species. These elements and compounds exhibited the potential to prove authenticity of the commercially relevant squid species.
Resumo:
Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.
Resumo:
In the context of the Bologna Declaration a change is taking place in the teaching/learning paradigm. From teaching-centered education, which emphasizes the acquisition and transmission of knowledge, we now speak of learning-centered education, which is more demanding for students. This paradigm promotes a continuum of lifelong learning, where the individual needs to be able to handle knowledge, to select what is appropriate for a particular context, to learn permanently and to understand how to learn in new and rapidly changing situations. One attempt to face these challenges has been the experience of ISCAP regarding the teaching/learning of accounting in the course Managerial Simulation. This paper describes the process of teaching, learning and assessment in an action-based learning environment. After a brief general framework that focuses on education objectives, we report the strengths and limitations of this teaching/learning tool. We conclude with some lessons from the implementation of the project.