Estratégias de oferta em leilões simétricos no âmbito dos mercados liberalizados de electricidade

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Digital marketing strategies

Internship Report presented to Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto for the Master’s degree in Marketing Digital under the guidance of Dr. José Magalhães Author Note This internship was carried out under the Erasmus Program for college students and under the agreement between the sending institution, Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto and the host company, eRise, located in Budapest, Hungary, under the guidance of Vilmos Schwarz.

Parallel Software framework for time-critical many-core systems

The recent technological advancements and market trends are causing an interesting phenomenon towards the convergence of High-Performance Computing (HPC) and Embedded Computing (EC) domains. On one side, new kinds of HPC applications are being required by markets needing huge amounts of information to be processed within a bounded amount of time. On the other side, EC systems are increasingly concerned with providing higher performance in real-time, challenging the performance capabilities of current architectures. The advent of next-generation many-core embedded platforms has the chance of intercepting this converging need for predictable high-performance, allowing HPC and EC applications to be executed on efficient and powerful heterogeneous architectures integrating general-purpose processors with many-core computing fabrics. To this end, it is of paramount importance to develop new techniques for exploiting the massively parallel computation capabilities of such platforms in a predictable way. P-SOCRATES will tackle this important challenge by merging leading research groups from the HPC and EC communities. The time-criticality and parallelisation challenges common to both areas will be addressed by proposing an integrated framework for executing workload-intensive applications with real-time requirements on top of next-generation commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) platforms based on many-core accelerated architectures. The project will investigate new HPC techniques that fulfil real-time requirements. The main sources of indeterminism will be identified, proposing efficient mapping and scheduling algorithms, along with the associated timing and schedulability analysis, to guarantee the real-time and performance requirements of the applications.

User Profiling and Knowledge Extraction For Tourism

O sector do turismo é uma área francamente em crescimento em Portugal e que tem desenvolvido a sua divulgação e estratégia de marketing. Contudo, apenas se prende com indicadores de desempenho e de oferta instalada (número de quartos, hotéis, voos, estadias), deixando os indicadores estatísticos em segundo plano. De acordo com o “ Travel & tourism Competitiveness Report 2013”, do World Economic Forum, classifica Portugal em 72º lugar no que respeita à qualidade e cobertura da informação estatística, disponível para o sector do Turismo. Refira-se que Espanha ocupa o 3º lugar. Uma estratégia de mercado, sem base analítica, que sustente um quadro de orientações específico e objetivo, com relevante conhecimento dos mercados alvo, dificilmente é compreensível ou até mesmo materializável. A implementação de uma estrutura de Business Intelligence que permita a realização de um levantamento e tratamento de dados que possibilite relacionar e sustentar os resultados obtidos no sector do turismo revela-se fundamental e crucial, para que sejam criadas estratégias de mercado. Essas estratégias são realizadas a partir da informação dos turistas que nos visitam, e dos potenciais turistas, para que possam ser cativados no futuro. A análise das características e dos padrões comportamentais dos turistas permite definir perfis distintos e assim detetar as tendências de mercado, de forma a promover a oferta dos produtos e serviços mais adequados. O conhecimento obtido permite, por um lado criar e disponibilizar os produtos mais atrativos para oferecer aos turistas e por outro informá-los, de uma forma direcionada, da existência desses produtos. Assim, a associação de uma recomendação personalizada que, com base no conhecimento de perfis do turista proceda ao aconselhamento dos melhores produtos, revela-se como uma ferramenta essencial na captação e expansão de mercado.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: the auditors Rrgistered with the portuguese securities market commission

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS, this may have a negative impact on financial statements comparability.

Balancing market integration in MASCEM electricity market simulator

With the restructuring of the energy sector in industrialized countries there is an increased complexity in market players’ interactions along with emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets are extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent simulator for competitive electricity markets. It is essential to reinforce MASCEM with the ability to recreate electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, making it able to simulate as many types of markets models and players as possible. This paper presents the development of the Balancing Market in MASCEM. A key module to the study of competitive electricity markets, as it has well defined and distinct characteristics previously implemented.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Virtual power producers market strategies

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Producers (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper detail some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producers

Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.

Complex market integration in MASCEM electricity market simulator

The restructuring that the energy sector has suffered in industrialized countries originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions, and thus new problems and issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent system for simulating competitive electricity markets. To provide MASCEM with the capacity to recreate the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is essential to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents the development of the Complex Market in MASCEM. This module is fundamental to study competitive electricity markets, as it exhibits different characteristics from the already implemented market types.

Energy and ancillary services joint market simulation

In order to develop a flexible simulator, a variety of models for Ancillary Services (AS) negotiation has been implemented in MASCEM – a multi-agent system competitive electricity markets simulator. In some of these models, the energy and the AS are addressed simultaneously while in other models they are addressed separately. This paper presents an energy and ancillary services joint market simulation. This paper proposes a deterministic approach for solving the energy and ancillary services joint market. A case study based on the dispatch of Regulation Down, Regulation Up, Spinning Reserve, and Non-Spinning Reserve services is used to demonstrate that the use of the developed methodology is suitable for solving this kind of optimization problem. The presented case study is based on CAISO real AS market data considers fifteen bids.

Seller, buyer and VPP agents behavior on a simulated electricity market

Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents’ behavior. Agents’ behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.