15 resultados para trend following mean reversion

em Repositório Científico do Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa - Portugal


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The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

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Aim: Visual acuity outcome of amblyopia treatment depends on the compliance. This study aimed to determine parental predictors of poor visual outcome with occlusion treatment in unilateral amblyopia and identify the relationship between occlusion recommendations and the patient's actual dose of occlusion reported by the parents. Methods: This study comprised three phases: refractive adaptation for a period of 18 weeks after spectacle correction; occlusion of 3 to 6 hours per day during a period of 6 months; questionnaire administration and completion by parents. Visual acuity as assessed using the Sheridan-Gardiner singles or Snellen acuity chart was used as a measure of visual outcome. Correlation analysis was used to describe the strength and direction of two variables: prescribed occlusion reported by the doctor and actual dose reported by parents. A logistic binary model was adjusted using the following variables: severity, vulnerability, self-efficacy, behaviour intentions, perceived efficacy and treatment barriers, parents' and childrens' age, and parents' level of education. Results: The study included 100 parents (mean age 38.9 years, SD approx 9.2) of 100 children (mean age 6.3 years, SD approx 2.4) with amblyopia. Twenty-eight percent of children had no improvement in visual acuity. The results showed a positive mild correlation (kappa = 0.54) between the prescribed occlusion and actual dose reported by parents. Three predictors for poor visual outcome with occlusion were identified: parents' level of education (OR = 9.28; 95%CI 1.32-65.41); treatment barriers (OR = 2.75; 95%CI 1.22-6.20); interaction between severity and vulnerability (OR = 3.64; 95%CI 1.21-10.93). Severity (OR = 0.07; 95%CI 0.00-0.72) and vulnerability (OR = 0.06; 95%CI 0.05-0.74) when considered in isolation were identified as protective factors. Conclusions: Parents frequently do not use the correct dosage of occlusion as recommended. Parents' educational level and awareness of treatment barriers were predictors of poor visual outcome. Lower levels of education represented a 9-times higher risk of having a poor visual outcome with occlusion treatment.

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We show photorheology in aqueous solutions of weakly entangled wormlike micelles prepared with cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), salicylic acid (HSal), and dilute amounts of the photochromic multistate compound trans-2,4,4'-trihydroxychalcone (Ct). Different chemical species of Ct are associated with different colorations and propensities to reside within or outside CTAB micelles. A light-induced transfer between the intra- and intermicellar space is used to alter the mean length of wormlike micelles and hence the rheological properties of the fluid, studied in steady-state shear Bow and in dynamic rheological measurements. Light-induced changes of fluid rheology are reversible by a the relaxation process. at relaxation rates which depend on pH and which are consistent with photochromic reversion rates measured by UV-vis absorption spectroscopy. Parameterizing viscoelostic rheological states by their effective relaxation time tau(c) and corresponding response modulus G(c), we find the light and dark states of the system to fall onto a characteristic state curve defined by comparable experiments conducted without photosensitive components. These reference experiments were prepared with the same concentration of CTAB, but different concentrations of HSal or sodium salicylote (NaSal), and tested at different temperatures.

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Objectivo: Identificar os factores psicossociais que influenciam a percepção da dor pós-operatória em doentes submetidos a cirurgia de revascularização do miocárdio (CRM). Material e Métodos: Estudo exploratório correlacional de 91 doentes (71 homens e 20 mulheres) submetidos a CRM (pontagem aortocoronária) por esternotomia). A idade média era de 63,8 ± 9,6 anos (entre 39 e 84). Foram utilizados os seguintes instrumentos: Escala Analógica Visual às 24, 48 e 96 horas do pós-operatório; Questionário de Caracterização Demográfica; Mental Health Inventory de 5 itens; Percepção de Saúde Geral (SF-36); Escala de Expectativas de Dor; Escala de Percepção de Apoio; Escala de Expectativas de Auto-eficácia; Satisfação com o tratamento, médicos e enfermeiros (American Pain Society Questionnaire) aplicados às 96 horas após a cirurgia. Resultados: Os doentes que apresentaram expectativas elevadas de dor, percepcionaram maior apoio, apresentaram níveis elevados de auto-eficácia para lidar com a dor ou, se pertenciam ao sexo masculino, sentiram menos dor. De igual modo, os doentes que apresentaram melhor saúde mental, percepcionaram a sua saúde como boa e os doentes que expressaram maior satisfação com o tratamento sentiram menos dor. A dor não foi influenciada pela idade, grau de escolaridade ou pela satisfação com a conduta de médicos e enfermeiros. Conclusão: Após as primeiras 48 horas do pós-operatório, a experiência de dor é influenciada por factores psicossociais, em oarticular pela expectativa de dor, expectativa de auto-eficácia, apoio percebido, percepção da saúde geral, percepção de saúde mental e satisfação com o tratamento para a dor. Perante os resultados, evidencia-se a necessidade de conjugar conhecimentos no sentido de dar respostas mais alargadas e de carácter multidisciplinar no tratamento da dor pós-operatória em CRM devendo, a par de outros aspectos, focar-se na gestão das expectativas dos doentes. ABSTRACT - Objective: To identify the psychological factors that influence post-surgery pain perception in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). Methods: This was an exploratory correlational study of 91 patients (71 men and 20 women) who underwent CABG (aortocoronary anastomosis) by sternotomy. Mean age was 63.8 ± 9.6 years (between 39 and 84). The following instruments were used: visual analogical scales at 24, 48 and 96 hours of post-surgery; demographic characteristics survey; pain expectations scale; perceived support scale; self-efficacy scale, Mental Inventory (5 items); health perception scale; and satisfaction with treatment, doctors and nurses (American Pain Society questionnaire) at 96 hours after surgery. Results: Patients who had presented high expectations of pain, perceived more support, presented high levels of self-efficacy to deal with pain or were male, felt less pain. Furthermore, patients who presented better mental health, perceived their general health as being good, or expressed greater satisfaction with treatment, felt less pain. Pain was not influenced by age, level of education or satisfaction with doctors and nurses. Conclusion: After the first 48 hours following surgery, the pain experience is influenced by psychosocial factors, in particular by expectation of pain and of self-efficacy, perceived support, perception of general and mental health, and satisfaction with pain treatment. The results confirm the need to bring together different kinds of knowledge for a broad, multidisciplinary approach to postoperative CABG pain treatment, focusing, along with other aspects, on management of patients’ expectations.

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Attenuated Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is the only currently available vaccine against tuberculosis. It is highly effective in pre-exposure immunisation against TB in children when administered by subcutaneous route to newborns. However, it does not provide permanent protection in adults. In this work, polymeric chitosan-alginate microparticles have been evaluated as potential nasal delivery systems and mucosal adjuvants for live attenuated BCG. Chitosan (CS) has been employed as adjuvant and mucosal permeation-enhancer, and, together with alginate (ALG), as additive to enhance BCG-loaded microparticles (MPs) cellular uptake in a human monocyte cell line, by particle surface modification. The most suitable particles were used for vaccine formulation and evaluation of immune response following intranasal immunisation of BALB/c mice.

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Ballet gestures are highly non-anatomical and physiological, leading to compensatory behaviors. The knee joint is most affected by this behavior, leading to an increase risk of injury. Our purpose is to describe the knee angular displacement in amateur dancers, during a demi-plié exercise, with emphasis on valgus mechanisms frequency. Methods: 192 demi-pliés collected in six amateur female dancers (mean age = 15.33 ± 1.37 years), were analyzed regarding sagittal and frontal plane angular displacement, with an electrogoniometer connected to a signal acquisition unit at 1000 Hz. Results: all subjects presented valgus peaks along the trials, despite the global varus tendency of the knee frontal plane behavior. A significant positive correlation between the frequency of valgus and practice time was noted. Discussion: A variable angular frontal displacement was observed, with some trials comprehending a high incidence of valgus peaks along the ascending or descending phase of the demi-plié exercise. Conclusion: the frontal knee angle behavior is variable. It may present fast peaks of valgus or an initial trend of varus/valgus that is different from the global varus trend. The analysis of the activity should be considered in the training. The practice time may be related to the observed behavior.

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Objective - To describe and validate the simulation of the basic features of GE Millennium MG gamma camera using the GATE Monte Carlo platform. Material and methods - Crystal size and thickness, parallel-hole collimation and a realistic energy acquisition window were simulated in the GATE platform. GATE results were compared to experimental data in the following imaging conditions: a point source of 99mTc at different positions during static imaging and tomographic acquisitions using two different energy windows. The accuracy between the events expected and detected by simulation was obtained with the Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon test. Comparisons were made regarding the measurement of sensitivity and spatial resolution, static and tomographic. Simulated and experimental spatial resolutions for tomographic data were compared with the Kruskal–Wallis test to assess simulation accuracy for this parameter. Results - There was good agreement between simulated and experimental data. The number of decays expected when compared with the number of decays registered, showed small deviation (≤0.007%). The sensitivity comparisons between static acquisitions for different distances from source to collimator (1, 5, 10, 20, 30cm) with energy windows of 126–154 keV and 130–158 keV showed differences of 4.4%, 5.5%, 4.2%, 5.5%, 4.5% and 5.4%, 6.3%, 6.3%, 5.8%, 5.3%, respectively. For the tomographic acquisitions, the mean differences were 7.5% and 9.8% for the energy window 126–154 keV and 130–158 keV. Comparison of simulated and experimental spatial resolutions for tomographic data showed no statistically significant differences with 95% confidence interval. Conclusions - Adequate simulation of the system basic features using GATE Monte Carlo simulation platform was achieved and validated.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

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When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

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Dissertation elaborated for the partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Master Degree in Civil Engineering in the Speciality Area of Hydarulics

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An integration of undoped InOx and commercial ITO thin films into laboratory assembled light shutter devices is made. Accordingly, undoped transparent conductive InOx thin films, about 100 nm thick, are deposited by radiofrequency plasma enhanced reactive thermal evaporation (rf-PERTE) of indium teardrops with no intentional heating of the glass substrates. The process of deposition occurs at very low deposition rates (0.1-0.3 nm/s) to establish an optimized reaction between the oxygen plasma and the metal vapor. These films show the following main characteristics: transparency of 87% (wavelength, lambda = 632.8 nm) and sheet resistance of 52 Omega/sq; while on commercial ITO films the transparency was of 92% and sheet resistance of 83 Omega/sq. The InOx thin film surface characterized by AFM shows a uniform grain texture with a root mean square surface roughness of Rq similar to 2.276 nm. In contrast, commercial ITO topography is characterized by two regions: one smoother with Rq similar to 0.973 nm and one with big grains (Rq similar to 3.617 nm). For the shutters assembled using commercial ITO, the light transmission coefficient (Tr) reaches the highest value (Tr-max) of 89% and the lowest (Tr-min) of 1.3% [13], while for the InOx shutters these values are 80.1% and 3.2%, respectively. Regarding the electric field required to achieve 90% of the maximum transmission in the ON state (E-on), the one presented by the devices assembled with commercial ITO coated glasses is 2.41 V/mu m while the one presented by the devices assembled with InOx coated glasses is smaller, 1.77 V/mu m. These results corroborate the device quality that depends on the base materials and fabrication process used. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Introduction: Pressure ulcers are a high cost, high volume issue for health and medical care providers, affecting patients’ recovery and psychological wellbeing. The current research of support surfaces on pressure as a risk factor in the development of pressure ulcers is not relevant to the specialised, controlled environment of the radiological setting. Method: 38 healthy participants aged 19-51 were placed supine on two different imaging surfaces. The XSENSOR pressure mapping system was used to measure the interface pressure. Data was acquired over a time of 20 minutes preceded by 6 minutes settling time to reduce measurement error. Qualitative information regarding participants’ opinion on pain and comfort was recorded using a questionnaire. Data analysis was performed using SPSS 22. Results: Data was collected from 30 participants aged 19 to 51 (mean 25.77, SD 7.72), BMI from 18.7 to 33.6 (mean 24.12, SD 3.29), for two surfaces, following eight participant exclusions due to technical faults. Total average pressure, average pressure for jeopardy areas (head, sacrum & heels) and peak pressure for jeopardy areas were calculated as interface pressure in mmHg. Qualitative data showed that a significant difference in experiences of comfort and pain was found in the jeopardy areas (P<0.05) between the two surfaces. Conclusion: A significant difference is seen in average pressure between the two surfaces. Pain and comfort data also show a significant difference between the surfaces, both findings support the proposal for further investigation into the effects of radiological surfaces as a risk factor for the formation of pressure ulcers.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

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Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

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Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Intervenção Precoce